prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 58 Wake Forest 53 62.3, 232 Presbyterian 13 2.9
90% 41 Houston 68 60.3, 156 Texas State - San Marc 28 21.8
90% 33 Air Force 65 59.5, 231 Northwestern State 21 0.0
90% 28 Tennessee 50 61.3, 192 Tennessee - Martin 0 4.0
90% 23 Stanford 52 60.7, 173 Sacramento State 17 11.1
90% 21 Clemson 35 54.5, 139 North Texas 10 11.2
90% 15 Miami - Florida 45 58.3, 167 Florida A&M 0 5.8
90% 13 Arkansas 44 63.1, 182 Tennessee Tech 3 5.0
90% 12 Nebraska 49 57.2, 178 Western Kentucky 10 0.0
90% 6 Oregon 72 61.3, 143 New Mexico 0 8.9
90% 3 Texas 34 63.3, 165 Rice 17 7.6
90% 2 Florida 34 59.9, 145 Miami - Ohio 12 0.0
90% 1 Alabama 48 59.2, 166 San Jose State 3 0.0
89% 151 Georgia Southern 48 50.5, 240 Savannah State 3 1.5
89% 109 San Diego State 47 52.9, 218 Nicholls State 0 14.1
89% 80 Baylor 34 50.5, 195 Sam Houston State 3 10.1
89% 60 Arizona State 54 48.0, 190 Portland State 9 2.5
89% 49 Nevada - Reno 49 50.4, 116 Eastern Washington 24 26.0
89% 39 West Virginia 31 51.2, 189 Coastal Carolina 0 0.0
89% 24 Georgia 55 48.0, 129 Louisiana - Lafayette 7 10.7
89% 11 Georgia Tech 41 53.3, 123 South Carolina State 10 12.3
89% 7 Oklahoma 31 48.8, 110 Utah State 24 7.8
88% 140 Holy Cross 38 47.9, 236 Howard 7 9.1
88% 113 Liberty 52 49.0, 226 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 8.2
88% 102 James Madison 48 46.2, 237 Morehead State 7 0.0
88% 74 North Carolina State 48 47.0, 181 Western Carolina 7 10.9
88% 59 Texas A&M 48 49.4, 130 Stephen F. Austin 7 23.4
88% 50 Central Michigan 33 51.0, 209 Hampton 0 0.0
88% 42 California 52 47.0, 153 California - Davis 3 9.1
88% 27 Oklahoma State 65 46.3, 141 Washington State 17 5.7
88% 25 Auburn 52 47.0, 118 Arkansas State 26 13.4
88% 22 Iowa 37 44.2, 154 Eastern Illinois 7 0.0
87% 111 Texas - El Paso 31 49.3, 225 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 10 8.2
87% 103 Indiana 51 48.0, 193 Towson 17 15.1
87% 99 Buffalo 31 46.2, 183 Rhode Island 0 17.3
87% 65 Central Florida 38 45.8, 152 South Dakota 7 15.8
87% 56 Rutgers 31 47.1, 171 Norfolk State 0 7.7
87% 32 Florida State 59 43.6, 135 Samford 6 7.0
87% 17 Penn State 44 44.4, 138 Youngstown State 14 0.0
86% 184 Western Illinois 45 44.8, 241 Valparaiso 0 0.0
86% 121 Kent State 41 40.7, 228 Murray State 10 2.7
86% 95 New Hampshire 33 46.3, 172 Central Connecticut 3 17.9
86% 76 Louisiana Tech 20 49.3, 176 Grambling 6 18.7
86% 14 Texas Tech 35 46.2, 68 Southern Methodist 27 21.5
85% 97 Idaho 45 45.4, 158 North Dakota 0 23.2
85% 54 South Florida 59 39.3, 159 Stony Brook 14 2.5
85% 47 Mississippi State 49 42.2, 124 Memphis 7 14.8
85% 34 Arizona 41 46.2, 122 Toledo 2 23.7
84% 87 Ohio 33 41.9, 162 Wofford 10 15.5
84% 53 Michigan State 38 41.3, 117 Western Michigan 14 17.0
84% 9 Ohio State 45 36.2, 92 Marshall 7 3.6
83% 44 Boston College 38 37.1, 114 Weber State 20 10.5
81% 136 Ball State 27 34.8, 197 Southeast Missouri Sta 10 10.5
80% 155 Colgate 30 36.7, 199 Monmouth 29 16.6
80% 98 Wyoming 28 39.0, 147 Southern Utah 20 20.0
80% 29 Wisconsin 41 39.8, 100 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 21.3
80% 26 Southern California 49 36.3, 115 Hawaii 36 13.1
78% 38 Notre Dame 23 38.0, 71 Purdue 12 22.8
77% 48 East Carolina 51 35.5, 93 Tulsa 49 18.2
77% 20 Brigham Young 23 38.1, 52 Washington 17 23.2
77% 4 Texas Christian 30 37.0, 30 Oregon State 21 21.0
76% 90 Appalachian State 42 38.7, 142 Tennessee - Chattanoog 41 23.7
75% 36 South Carolina 41 33.6, 72 Southern Mississippi 13 17.7
73% 164 Tulane 27 36.4, 186 Southeast Louisiana 21 23.8
72% 43 Missouri 23 35.7, 85 Illinois 13 22.9
68% 126 Army 31 30.3, 177 Eastern Michigan 27 18.1
68% 73 Troy State 30 37.9, 91 Bowling Green 27 29.5
67% 235 Alabama State 34 22.7, 239 Mississippi Valley Sta 6 7.9
67% 150 Missouri State 31 26.7, 179 Eastern Kentucky 9 14.0
67% 86 Syracuse 29 31.6, 132 Akron 3 21.0
66% 45 Kentucky 23 30.1, 94 Louisville 16 19.4
65% 168 Prairie View 16 31.8, 208 Texas Southern 14 22.4
61% 214 Tennessee State 27 19.7, 211 Alabama A&M 14 16.0
61% 191 Dayton 28 21.4, 194 Robert Morris 14 15.5
61% 170 Lehigh 28 26.4, 200 Drake 14 20.3
61% 88 Colorado 24 30.4, 104 Colorado State 3 25.2
61% 79 Duke 41 28.1, 89 Elon 27 22.8
61% 69 Iowa State 27 27.0, 82 Northern Illinois 10 20.2
61% 66 Virginia 34 26.3, 63 Richmond 13 23.2
61% 16 Louisiana State 30 20.3, 31 North Carolina 24 14.4
50% 61 Minnesota 24 25.3, 75 Middle Tennessee State 17 25.2
47% 70 Northwestern 23 22.4, 83 Vanderbilt 21 23.0
45% 67 Kansas State 31 20.6, 51 California - Los Angel 22 21.7
44% 188 Jacksonville 35 34.0, 196 Old Dominion 25 34.8
39% 234 Georgetown 20 12.9, 229 Davidson 10 19.4
39% 233 Duquesne 17 19.7, 213 Bucknell 13 24.2
39% 215 Southern 37 25.3, 205 Delaware State 27 28.3
39% 207 Bryant 44 20.5, 180 Fordham 30 25.0
39% 62 Temple 31 27.8, 46 Villanova 24 30.8
39% 40 Utah 27 27.6, 19 Pittsburgh 24 30.3
39% 8 Boise State 33 29.0, 5 Virginia Tech 30 32.3
37% 230 Sacred Heart 28 20.6, 221 Marist 25 28.6
35% 112 Massachusetts 27 15.5, 57 William & Mary 23 26.3
34% 77 Michigan 30 30.5, 35 Connecticut 10 38.0
31% 160 Albany 3 17.0, 127 Maine 0 30.4
28% 120 Florida Atlantic 32 29.8, 101 Alabama - Birmingham 31 39.7
23% 96 Maryland 17 18.4, 37 Navy 14 35.8
19% 64 Fresno State 28 31.7, 10 Cincinnati 14 45.8
15% 108 Jacksonville State 49 9.3, 18 Mississippi 48 41.8
11% 146 North Dakota State 6 18.3, 55 Kansas 3 51.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.47 26 0.91 12 1.09 58 1.09 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 100 81 78.3 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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