prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 195 Prairie View 34 32.5, 244 Mississippi Valley Sta 13 4.8
90% 147 South Dakota 27 37.4, 160 North Dakota 17 26.4
90% 119 Liberty 52 57.0, 242 Savannah State 14 1.1
90% 107 Jacksonville State 40 48.4, 196 Murray State 34 17.9
90% 102 Richmond 41 43.4, 186 Coastal Carolina 19 14.7
90% 32 Mississippi State 49 56.4, 209 Alcorn State 16 0.0
90% 28 California - Los Angel 42 41.9, 146 Washington State 28 3.7
90% 17 Auburn 52 50.5, 133 Northeast Louisiana 3 10.5
90% 15 Nevada - Reno 44 45.0, 94 Nevada - Las Vegas 26 20.3
90% 10 Louisiana State 16 37.4, 55 Tennessee 14 14.2
90% 6 Texas Christian 27 46.3, 129 Colorado State 0 7.1
90% 4 Boise State 59 61.8, 170 New Mexico State 0 4.9
89% 78 Northern Illinois 50 36.7, 158 Akron 14 17.7
89% 66 Southern Methodist 42 40.3, 139 Rice 31 22.4
89% 7 Ohio State 24 36.9, 67 Illinois 13 17.4
88% 58 Fresno State 38 43.6, 140 California Poly 17 16.1
87% 98 Massachusetts 27 45.1, 201 Towson 14 20.0
86% 167 Jacksonville 35 34.4, 214 San Diego 28 17.5
86% 110 Pennsylvania 35 37.5, 202 Dartmouth 28 6.3
86% 95 Ohio 30 40.4, 176 Eastern Michigan 17 21.8
86% 70 Southern Mississippi 41 36.3, 101 Marshall 16 20.8
85% 178 Portland State 38 36.6, 213 Idaho State 3 22.6
85% 42 Pittsburgh 44 39.9, 114 Florida International 17 14.9
85% 33 Air Force 14 31.5, 59 Navy 6 18.5
84% 193 Dayton 48 41.2, 243 Valparaiso 14 6.1
84% 111 Texas - El Paso 38 37.3, 177 New Mexico 20 22.1
84% 71 Maryland 21 46.5, 105 Duke 16 30.7
84% 40 North Carolina 42 37.7, 60 East Carolina 17 28.5
82% 56 South Florida 31 35.1, 124 Florida Atlantic 3 11.6
82% 25 Michigan 42 46.6, 90 Indiana 35 27.4
81% 197 Hampton 20 27.6, 231 Delaware State 14 20.7
81% 76 Idaho 33 36.7, 131 Western Michigan 13 25.6
81% 11 Oklahoma State 38 47.3, 31 Texas A&M 35 34.8
80% 47 Northwestern 29 31.1, 91 Minnesota 28 20.9
78% 223 Drake 42 32.8, 236 Marist 0 23.1
78% 185 Central Connecticut 24 39.3, 239 Sacred Heart 14 22.8
78% 113 Montana 30 38.5, 172 Northern Colorado 7 24.0
77% 29 Oregon State 31 33.3, 43 Arizona State 28 23.6
75% 179 Old Dominion 14 34.1, 208 Gardner - Webb 7 22.5
75% 168 Robert Morris 35 26.4, 216 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 15.9
75% 83 Tulsa 48 34.6, 127 Memphis 7 27.5
75% 39 Temple 42 27.2, 92 Army 35 12.4
75% 37 Georgia Tech 24 35.5, 85 Wake Forest 20 24.7
74% 157 Grambling 25 31.4, 219 Alabama A&M 22 18.0
74% 128 Elon 24 23.6, 156 Samford 19 8.9
74% 44 Connecticut 40 26.6, 65 Vanderbilt 21 18.0
74% 20 Florida State 34 28.5, 63 Virginia 14 19.0
74% 16 Iowa 24 24.0, 21 Penn State 3 16.9
72% 9 Miami - Florida 30 31.5, 41 Clemson 21 21.0
72% 2 Oregon 52 44.5, 5 Stanford 31 38.1
71% 137 South Carolina State 19 30.7, 173 Florida A&M 0 23.8
71% 106 Northern Iowa 24 18.0, 116 South Dakota State 14 11.0
71% 87 Hawaii 41 32.4, 97 Louisiana Tech 21 25.2
71% 1 Alabama 31 29.0, 3 Florida 6 21.9
68% 8 Oklahoma 28 31.8, 23 Texas 20 23.3
67% 181 Colgate 34 29.6, 191 Georgetown 3 21.7
67% 74 Baylor 55 23.2, 77 Kansas 7 17.9
66% 203 Virginia Military 24 39.6, 218 Presbyterian 13 32.9
65% 220 Georgia State 37 45.0, 225 Morehead State 10 39.3
65% 198 Tennessee State 37 23.2, 230 North Carolina A&T 7 13.8
65% 188 McNeese State 24 37.3, 227 Northwestern State 7 29.8
65% 184 Holy Cross 36 25.1, 182 Fordham 31 22.3
65% 180 Columbia 42 24.3, 194 Princeton 14 16.7
64% 207 Sam Houston State 38 39.5, 233 Lamar 10 33.4
64% 109 Montana State 64 28.1, 148 Sacramento State 61 22.2
62% 159 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 24.2, 187 Eastern Illinois 13 20.6
61% 206 Texas Southern 21 25.7, 228 Alabama State 7 22.5
61% 190 Bethune - Cookman 69 19.5, 217 Morgan State 32 16.0
61% 144 Harvard 35 26.6, 162 Lafayette 10 22.8
61% 125 Northern Arizona 26 32.0, 153 Southern Utah 23 27.2
61% 88 Louisville 34 29.5, 118 Arkansas State 24 26.2
61% 54 Mississippi 42 34.2, 48 Kentucky 35 31.3
61% 14 Virginia Tech 41 31.5, 30 North Carolina State 30 29.0
58% 212 Wagner 29 30.8, 200 Bryant 21 29.6
47% 126 Eastern Washington 35 28.5, 136 Weber State 24 29.1
41% 234 Cornell 21 13.7, 237 Bucknell 12 15.6
40% 123 Miami - Ohio 27 23.0, 99 Kent State 21 23.9
39% 229 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 41 31.1, 232 Southern 23 34.5
39% 166 Rhode Island 27 23.4, 132 Brown 24 32.4
39% 62 Iowa State 52 20.1, 36 Texas Tech 38 24.2
39% 52 Notre Dame 31 17.5, 64 Boston College 13 19.8
39% 51 Michigan State 34 28.2, 27 Wisconsin 24 32.4
38% 149 Missouri State 35 35.3, 120 Youngstown State 25 40.0
37% 210 Monmouth 44 25.9, 211 Duquesne 17 30.4
37% 165 Western Carolina 24 16.7, 163 The Citadel 13 21.2
34% 199 Albany 23 14.6, 175 Yale 20 26.2
34% 75 Delaware 13 16.2, 68 James Madison 10 22.5
33% 134 Southern Illinois 38 26.3, 130 Illinois State 17 32.5
33% 82 William & Mary 31 18.2, 53 Villanova 24 23.1
32% 112 Buffalo 28 24.7, 104 Bowling Green 26 30.8
30% 241 Campbell 27 10.1, 235 Butler 10 26.4
30% 154 Maine 16 19.5, 117 New Hampshire 13 25.7
25% 151 Louisiana - Lafayette 28 22.8, 142 North Texas 27 29.2
21% 79 Colorado 29 15.2, 35 Georgia 27 26.6
20% 103 Wyoming 20 20.6, 89 Toledo 15 28.6
16% 171 California - Davis 14 18.4, 150 San Jose State 13 29.6
16% 164 Wofford 38 27.0, 115 Furman 17 38.8
16% 145 Western Illinois 28 18.0, 108 North Dakota State 16 31.7
15% 121 Utah State 31 16.5, 57 Brigham Young 16 31.6
13% 221 Tennessee - Martin 27 17.9, 174 Tennessee Tech 24 36.5
11% 135 Tulane 17 6.5, 73 Rutgers 14 29.0
10% 138 Ball State 31 6.0, 50 Central Michigan 17 34.4
10% 69 Washington 32 23.0, 26 Southern California 31 40.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.59 34 0.88 24 1.17 42 0.91 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 103 74 77.6 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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