prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 205 Georgia State 55 47.6, 241 Savannah State 21 20.5
90% 169 Bethune - Cookman 47 39.1, 229 Delaware State 24 13.6
90% 140 Furman 56 51.2, 242 Howard 14 1.5
90% 132 Pennsylvania 31 34.5, 238 Bucknell 10 2.1
90% 128 South Carolina State 34 29.9, 206 Norfolk State 13 2.7
90% 112 Kent State 28 35.1, 175 Akron 17 12.2
90% 99 Montana 47 44.2, 224 Idaho State 28 1.4
90% 98 Montana State 44 45.5, 160 Portland State 31 24.6
90% 86 Louisville 56 35.1, 153 Memphis 0 12.8
90% 79 Stephen F. Austin 32 43.2, 184 McNeese State 27 16.9
90% 78 James Madison 17 34.8, 192 Towson 13 6.0
90% 74 William & Mary 26 40.7, 161 Rhode Island 7 9.9
90% 71 Vanderbilt 52 47.6, 174 Eastern Michigan 6 13.1
90% 67 Delaware 26 32.9, 146 Maine 7 6.8
90% 60 Cincinnati 45 37.9, 113 Miami - Ohio 3 18.0
90% 43 West Virginia 49 32.3, 90 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 11.7
90% 32 North Carolina State 44 37.4, 77 Boston College 17 19.9
90% 30 Wisconsin 41 41.8, 95 Minnesota 23 17.2
90% 16 Nevada - Reno 35 54.9, 156 San Jose State 13 8.1
90% 12 Oklahoma State 54 57.1, 151 Louisiana - Lafayette 28 16.2
90% 8 Ohio State 38 51.0, 87 Indiana 10 15.2
90% 7 Texas Christian 45 41.3, 94 Wyoming 0 2.1
90% 3 Boise State 57 57.0, 96 Toledo 14 11.3
90% 2 Oregon 43 66.4, 142 Washington State 23 14.1
89% 122 Jacksonville State 30 40.0, 212 Tennessee - Martin 20 16.9
89% 57 Central Florida 42 31.8, 108 Alabama - Birmingham 7 12.1
89% 23 Missouri 26 36.8, 66 Colorado 0 18.6
89% 17 Virginia Tech 45 37.4, 82 Central Michigan 21 9.4
89% 4 Stanford 37 43.0, 31 Southern California 35 22.7
88% 124 Liberty 44 47.1, 218 Charleston Southern 20 14.4
87% 210 Bryant 25 37.5, 237 Sacred Heart 24 17.0
87% 186 Albany 48 29.9, 226 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 11.7
87% 34 Air Force 49 35.9, 116 Colorado State 27 8.0
86% 168 Stony Brook 27 36.9, 207 Virginia Military 9 22.7
86% 166 Grambling 22 34.5, 225 Alabama State 7 11.3
86% 130 Harvard 31 36.4, 228 Cornell 17 0.0
85% 118 Florida International 28 42.6, 157 Western Kentucky 21 28.4
85% 107 Texas - El Paso 44 36.6, 136 Rice 24 26.2
85% 15 Auburn 37 41.5, 59 Kentucky 34 29.6
84% 182 Sam Houston State 26 33.6, 222 Nicholls State 7 24.5
84% 171 Jacksonville 39 37.4, 204 Drake 34 25.0
84% 152 Sacramento State 42 44.8, 185 Northern Colorado 7 30.9
84% 42 Georgia Tech 33 29.4, 70 Virginia 21 16.8
82% 233 Southern 38 35.2, 244 Mississippi Valley Sta 20 17.9
82% 139 Tennessee - Chattanoog 28 30.9, 177 The Citadel 10 22.0
81% 164 Robert Morris 17 32.1, 180 Monmouth 16 23.4
81% 85 Appalachian State 34 40.3, 131 Elon 31 23.9
81% 18 California 35 30.4, 33 California - Los Angel 7 18.5
80% 172 Lehigh 21 28.6, 183 Fordham 17 21.3
79% 154 Southeast Missouri Sta 19 28.4, 191 Tennessee State 17 13.1
78% 19 Utah 68 33.1, 49 Iowa State 27 25.8
76% 201 Jackson State 30 28.4, 219 Alabama A&M 14 18.3
76% 181 Eastern Kentucky 35 26.7, 196 Eastern Illinois 7 18.5
75% 200 Central Connecticut 31 34.0, 221 Duquesne 29 22.6
74% 28 North Carolina 21 31.0, 45 Clemson 16 23.0
72% 47 Georgia 41 28.8, 46 Tennessee 14 24.0
71% 165 Columbia 42 25.7, 188 Lafayette 28 16.4
71% 101 Ohio 49 26.3, 110 Bowling Green 25 20.6
70% 173 New Mexico State 16 29.9, 176 New Mexico 14 25.5
69% 167 Colgate 44 35.3, 217 Princeton 10 24.6
66% 127 Arkansas State 24 28.5, 148 North Texas 19 26.3
65% 68 Southern Methodist 21 35.4, 64 Tulsa 18 33.1
65% 14 Nebraska 48 29.0, 37 Kansas State 13 23.7
64% 58 Navy 28 22.7, 83 Wake Forest 27 18.4
63% 134 California Poly 50 28.9, 170 Old Dominion 37 21.2
63% 105 Southern Illinois 45 22.3, 97 Northern Iowa 38 19.2
61% 240 Marist 51 25.2, 243 Valparaiso 7 23.5
61% 195 Dayton 21 28.0, 216 San Diego 20 26.0
61% 126 New Hampshire 17 24.5, 111 Richmond 0 23.7
61% 123 South Dakota State 33 23.9, 121 Western Illinois 29 20.2
61% 114 Eastern Washington 21 33.3, 120 Northern Arizona 14 27.2
61% 89 Army 41 23.6, 119 Tulane 23 20.8
61% 84 Troy State 42 32.5, 106 Middle Tennessee State 13 30.4
61% 41 Notre Dame 23 26.2, 40 Pittsburgh 17 22.2
61% 21 Arkansas 24 32.8, 25 Texas A&M 17 31.5
60% 193 Tennessee Tech 34 35.5, 209 Austin Peay 21 34.5
55% 197 Prairie View 21 27.2, 213 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 6 26.7
51% 44 Arizona State 24 31.6, 56 Washington 14 31.5
49% 190 Yale 23 29.5, 198 Dartmouth 20 29.8
49% 109 Louisiana Tech 24 28.3, 91 Utah State 6 28.4
48% 155 Southern Utah 31 24.3, 162 North Dakota 21 24.5
47% 203 Wagner 22 23.4, 214 Georgetown 16 23.8
46% 76 Brigham Young 24 21.1, 61 San Diego State 21 21.4
39% 231 Morgan State 27 24.2, 234 North Carolina A&T 14 26.9
39% 211 Hampton 27 26.7, 215 North Carolina Central 13 28.5
39% 199 Texas Southern 30 29.5, 202 Alcorn State 20 32.8
39% 163 California - Davis 17 28.1, 147 South Dakota 13 30.2
39% 143 Northeast Louisiana 20 22.2, 125 Florida Atlantic 17 23.3
39% 129 North Dakota State 34 26.2, 137 Youngstown State 29 28.1
39% 75 Northern Illinois 31 28.2, 50 Temple 17 32.0
39% 52 Texas Tech 45 30.2, 35 Baylor 38 33.6
38% 158 Samford 38 14.7, 159 Western Carolina 7 17.7
35% 39 Mississippi State 47 32.4, 48 Houston 24 34.7
34% 239 Butler 24 11.6, 235 Davidson 8 20.1
27% 72 East Carolina 44 32.6, 69 Southern Mississippi 43 37.8
23% 81 Syracuse 13 14.3, 53 South Florida 9 28.6
20% 194 Southeast Louisiana 49 24.5, 138 Texas State - San Marc 24 37.3
19% 88 Rutgers 27 15.7, 36 Connecticut 24 28.2
18% 144 Wofford 33 22.0, 115 Georgia Southern 31 34.8
17% 178 Murray State 72 28.3, 135 Missouri State 59 38.6
17% 13 Louisiana State 33 15.5, 5 Florida 29 27.2
16% 51 Illinois 33 8.5, 27 Penn State 13 20.0
16% 29 Oregon State 29 21.8, 11 Arizona 27 36.0
15% 93 Purdue 20 16.1, 54 Northwestern 17 33.2
14% 80 Hawaii 49 30.7, 62 Fresno State 27 41.9
13% 133 Western Michigan 45 17.5, 104 Ball State 16 27.9
12% 223 Indiana State 59 17.5, 149 Illinois State 24 38.8
12% 189 Holy Cross 17 19.9, 141 Brown 13 30.6
12% 38 Michigan State 34 32.7, 22 Michigan 17 43.4
12% 26 South Carolina 35 13.1, 1 Alabama 21 31.7
12% 20 Florida State 45 22.2, 9 Miami - Florida 17 33.1
10% 227 Northwestern State 24 9.6, 150 Central Arkansas 19 39.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.70 27 0.95 12 1.12 65 0.87 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 112 78 86.5 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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