prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 165 North Dakota 31 44.1, 231 Lamar 6 17.4
90% 157 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 30.9, 201 Tennessee - Martin 17 13.8
90% 149 Robert Morris 34 36.8, 213 Duquesne 11 14.6
90% 146 California Poly 41 38.8, 234 Saint Francis - Pennsy 33 5.1
90% 113 Liberty 34 46.3, 224 Presbyterian 24 17.6
90% 111 Colorado State 38 36.8, 171 New Mexico 14 15.8
90% 88 Army 29 41.1, 205 Virginia Military 7 4.3
90% 77 Ohio 38 40.5, 160 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 12.1
90% 46 Temple 30 50.5, 186 Akron 0 7.3
90% 32 Nevada - Reno 56 48.7, 116 Utah State 42 16.7
90% 20 South Carolina 38 33.6, 61 Tennessee 24 14.2
90% 5 Oklahoma 43 42.4, 69 Colorado 10 9.4
90% 4 Texas Christian 48 46.9, 120 Nevada - Las Vegas 6 4.6
90% 2 Boise State 49 52.1, 87 Louisiana Tech 20 9.4
89% 204 Norfolk State 10 34.2, 241 Howard 9 14.0
89% 158 Bethune - Cookman 67 43.7, 235 North Carolina A&T 17 13.2
89% 151 South Carolina State 38 30.9, 230 Delaware State 21 8.6
89% 132 Montana State 23 40.4, 216 Idaho State 20 18.3
89% 112 Wofford 35 35.7, 193 The Citadel 0 10.5
89% 89 Toledo 42 49.3, 177 Eastern Michigan 7 27.8
89% 29 North Carolina 21 31.0, 76 William & Mary 17 11.3
89% 26 Arkansas 49 36.5, 80 Vanderbilt 14 12.8
89% 7 Ohio State 52 42.7, 92 Minnesota 10 14.7
88% 60 Iowa State 28 35.8, 119 Kansas 16 13.1
88% 59 Houston 56 47.7, 154 Memphis 17 22.1
87% 200 Texas Southern 38 37.2, 243 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 6.1
87% 181 Florida A&M 31 32.7, 220 Morgan State 17 14.1
87% 179 Grambling 35 34.3, 217 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 25 21.2
87% 163 McNeese State 24 39.1, 218 Nicholls State 14 17.1
86% 84 Appalachian State 37 45.4, 129 Furman 26 27.8
86% 36 Illinois 44 30.4, 91 Purdue 10 9.4
85% 197 Dayton 37 31.8, 240 Davidson 13 14.9
85% 97 Kent State 33 27.7, 138 Ball State 14 13.1
84% 185 Fordham 24 30.4, 223 Georgetown 19 13.0
83% 161 Central Arkansas 30 27.8, 202 Southeast Louisiana 23 11.6
83% 6 Utah 28 39.1, 38 Air Force 23 27.2
82% 148 Jacksonville 61 48.4, 236 Morehead State 17 22.9
82% 125 Pennsylvania 24 28.5, 150 Brown 7 16.4
82% 56 Villanova 28 31.6, 107 Richmond 7 10.1
82% 49 Hawaii 45 40.7, 79 Idaho 10 27.3
81% 238 Butler 48 33.6, 244 Valparaiso 0 13.3
81% 50 Arizona State 42 39.4, 105 Washington State 0 17.0
80% 170 Stony Brook 41 42.4, 219 Charleston Southern 21 21.6
80% 31 Mississippi State 24 35.5, 48 Kentucky 17 24.3
79% 182 Lafayette 33 27.2, 229 Bucknell 22 14.3
79% 135 Western Illinois 65 37.4, 169 Illinois State 38 23.5
78% 159 South Dakota 34 34.8, 192 Northern Colorado 6 22.8
77% 14 Stanford 41 42.3, 62 Washington 0 28.3
76% 9 Auburn 51 42.8, 52 Mississippi 31 28.9
73% 222 Alcorn State 27 43.1, 232 Southern 20 34.4
72% 183 Central Connecticut 38 35.1, 203 Wagner 20 23.8
72% 140 Harvard 30 32.8, 184 Dartmouth 14 24.5
72% 67 Maryland 62 34.8, 82 Wake Forest 14 25.4
72% 19 Arizona 29 26.5, 63 California - Los Angel 21 14.6
72% 8 Nebraska 31 30.1, 13 Missouri 17 22.1
71% 24 Pittsburgh 20 34.2, 57 Louisville 3 18.6
70% 72 Northwestern 20 32.1, 93 Indiana 17 27.8
69% 34 Texas A&M 45 36.4, 42 Texas Tech 27 28.1
69% 1 Oregon 53 41.8, 15 Southern California 32 32.8
68% 81 Southern Methodist 31 32.0, 121 Tulane 17 23.5
67% 118 Eastern Washington 50 36.8, 166 Portland State 17 28.4
66% 100 Northern Iowa 34 32.8, 144 Youngstown State 30 24.9
65% 41 Penn State 41 29.9, 45 Michigan 31 24.1
64% 211 Eastern Illinois 28 33.7, 221 Austin Peay 10 24.4
64% 71 San Diego State 48 27.1, 96 Wyoming 38 21.8
64% 58 Northern Illinois 28 32.1, 90 Western Michigan 21 24.8
64% 10 Florida 34 27.2, 22 Georgia 31 22.1
63% 55 Central Florida 49 29.8, 54 East Carolina 35 25.7
63% 17 Oklahoma State 24 44.5, 43 Kansas State 14 37.7
62% 206 Drake 38 28.3, 215 San Diego 17 19.8
61% 190 Coastal Carolina 30 26.5, 208 Gardner - Webb 27 24.7
61% 187 Eastern Kentucky 28 32.6, 178 Murray State 21 29.9
61% 174 Yale 31 19.8, 172 Columbia 28 17.0
61% 164 Rhode Island 30 29.9, 188 Towson 20 27.3
61% 162 Lehigh 44 25.8, 155 Colgate 14 22.8
61% 142 Southern Utah 55 24.7, 168 California - Davis 24 22.0
61% 114 Marshall 16 28.2, 117 Texas - El Paso 12 23.1
61% 23 Iowa 37 31.3, 27 Michigan State 6 24.8
58% 175 Old Dominion 28 23.9, 196 Hampton 14 22.8
55% 28 Oregon State 35 34.3, 21 California 7 33.6
52% 209 Bryant 24 23.6, 195 Albany 7 23.4
48% 227 Alabama State 31 16.0, 226 Alabama A&M 10 16.2
47% 237 Marist 42 23.2, 239 Campbell 14 23.9
46% 115 Miami - Ohio 21 23.2, 128 Buffalo 9 24.1
44% 225 Cornell 21 25.6, 214 Princeton 19 26.5
44% 212 Jackson State 30 22.3, 194 Prairie View 13 23.5
39% 156 Missouri State 51 30.7, 126 Southern Illinois 41 35.5
39% 130 Elon 49 26.7, 127 Tennessee - Chattanoog 35 30.8
39% 64 Connecticut 16 20.9, 40 West Virginia 13 24.0
36% 199 Northwestern State 23 20.3, 153 Sam Houston State 20 29.6
36% 70 Syracuse 31 19.3, 44 Cincinnati 7 31.6
34% 145 Samford 20 13.7, 124 Georgia Southern 13 24.3
32% 147 Weber State 30 26.0, 108 Montana 21 33.7
32% 131 Florida Atlantic 21 24.8, 98 Florida International 9 29.6
31% 167 New Mexico State 29 16.1, 137 San Jose State 27 20.8
29% 123 Bowling Green 17 22.8, 99 Central Michigan 14 34.0
29% 35 North Carolina State 28 31.2, 12 Florida State 24 37.7
25% 152 North Texas 33 25.9, 134 Western Kentucky 6 35.8
22% 47 Baylor 30 20.2, 30 Texas 22 33.1
21% 143 Sacramento State 40 23.6, 110 Northern Arizona 10 37.2
21% 136 Northeast Louisiana 28 22.4, 73 Troy State 14 37.6
21% 74 Boston College 16 16.9, 33 Clemson 10 26.6
20% 68 Tulsa 28 25.9, 51 Notre Dame 27 36.1
19% 103 Alabama - Birmingham 50 22.9, 66 Southern Mississippi 49 39.5
17% 180 Indiana State 41 16.1, 106 South Dakota State 30 33.2
15% 122 Massachusetts 21 12.0, 94 James Madison 14 24.1
13% 83 Virginia 24 13.6, 16 Miami - Florida 19 34.1
12% 198 Texas State - San Marc 27 17.2, 101 Stephen F. Austin 24 48.2
12% 95 Duke 34 16.4, 37 Navy 31 38.4
10% 233 Sacred Heart 26 14.7, 191 Monmouth 25 36.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.69 31 1.11 20 0.86 51 0.97 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 81 83.5 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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