prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 168 Colgate 29 37.3, 228 Bucknell 14 12.8
90% 155 South Carolina State 37 33.5, 223 Morgan State 13 8.2
90% 150 Bethune - Cookman 21 49.1, 241 Howard 10 13.2
90% 146 Jacksonville 36 46.4, 235 Butler 7 12.7
90% 139 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 34.6, 195 The Citadel 28 14.3
90% 118 Montana 38 41.6, 196 Northern Colorado 10 14.0
90% 107 Jacksonville State 55 41.2, 177 Tennessee Tech 28 18.0
90% 72 Brigham Young 24 37.4, 179 New Mexico 19 9.9
90% 63 Northern Illinois 26 40.7, 148 Ball State 20 11.6
90% 52 Villanova 49 45.1, 191 Towson 7 8.0
90% 39 Air Force 45 41.6, 123 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 12.3
90% 38 Hawaii 24 47.7, 165 New Mexico State 6 6.6
90% 37 Penn State 31 36.8, 93 Indiana 20 13.0
90% 22 Arkansas 56 48.3, 86 Troy State 20 20.1
90% 19 Florida State 41 46.4, 98 Wake Forest 28 20.5
90% 17 Louisiana State 24 36.9, 83 Louisiana Tech 16 7.5
90% 10 Nebraska 31 43.2, 122 Kansas 17 7.5
90% 4 Boise State 63 55.4, 87 Idaho 25 14.7
89% 194 Bryant 35 33.6, 231 Saint Francis - Pennsy 12 15.9
89% 153 Robert Morris 37 33.6, 206 Wagner 10 14.0
89% 92 Western Michigan 35 46.1, 190 Eastern Michigan 14 23.4
89% 89 Army 22 37.9, 198 Virginia Military 17 5.0
89% 47 Temple 56 45.5, 186 Akron 17 9.6
89% 1 Oregon 44 51.1, 41 Arizona State 21 19.1
88% 103 Richmond 49 33.9, 221 Georgetown 10 3.5
87% 129 Liberty 51 34.9, 209 Gardner - Webb 28 16.3
87% 5 Oklahoma 65 42.6, 30 Texas A&M 10 22.5
86% 31 Nevada - Reno 52 48.6, 77 Fresno State 14 30.2
85% 25 Pittsburgh 27 33.2, 58 Notre Dame 22 16.8
85% 18 Oregon State 48 40.5, 69 Washington 21 17.6
84% 144 Youngstown State 30 43.7, 173 Illinois State 18 30.0
84% 111 Middle Tennessee State 34 39.7, 160 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 22.0
84% 15 Oklahoma State 24 46.8, 51 Texas Tech 17 28.4
83% 185 Coastal Carolina 41 40.9, 218 Presbyterian 37 25.0
83% 174 Columbia 30 28.9, 225 Cornell 20 16.3
83% 35 Michigan State 40 31.9, 94 Purdue 37 16.5
83% 2 Alabama 31 27.5, 27 Mississippi State 3 14.0
82% 176 Grambling 47 31.8, 207 Texas Southern 33 19.2
82% 175 Holy Cross 28 26.7, 183 Lafayette 26 20.9
81% 240 Campbell 17 38.2, 244 Valparaiso 3 21.2
81% 154 Brown 14 30.6, 189 Dartmouth 7 17.2
81% 60 California - Los Angel 43 34.4, 127 Washington State 7 17.9
80% 117 Stephen F. Austin 41 40.4, 202 Southeast Louisiana 10 20.9
80% 110 Utah State 24 33.4, 147 San Jose State 9 21.0
80% 70 William & Mary 20 26.7, 84 New Hampshire 17 17.0
80% 46 Georgia Tech 49 37.4, 88 Duke 10 27.3
79% 143 Maine 41 28.9, 159 Rhode Island 17 19.0
79% 119 Northeast Louisiana 21 33.9, 156 Western Kentucky 18 20.1
79% 75 Ohio 27 29.3, 130 Buffalo 24 16.4
78% 102 Florida International 35 28.8, 136 North Texas 28 17.1
78% 76 Southern Methodist 35 33.3, 120 Texas - El Paso 31 16.8
78% 54 Navy 35 28.5, 81 Delaware 18 16.0
78% 13 Virginia Tech 36 34.8, 48 Maryland 9 24.7
77% 26 Wisconsin 45 43.5, 45 Michigan 24 30.7
75% 171 Central Connecticut 20 33.4, 197 Monmouth 19 22.5
74% 91 Alabama - Birmingham 31 39.9, 167 Memphis 21 23.9
73% 3 Texas Christian 55 36.8, 8 Utah 28 27.1
72% 97 Minnesota 16 30.9, 128 South Dakota State 13 19.8
71% 78 Southern Mississippi 27 32.5, 112 Marshall 20 26.8
71% 7 Ohio State 27 29.8, 12 Iowa 24 20.5
70% 145 Lehigh 35 26.9, 181 Fordham 28 19.4
69% 99 Northern Iowa 34 33.7, 124 Western Illinois 0 24.1
68% 49 Kentucky 24 30.9, 85 Vanderbilt 13 22.4
67% 16 Missouri 38 29.8, 43 Kansas State 12 22.9
65% 157 Southeast Missouri Sta 49 37.1, 180 Murray State 13 27.9
64% 62 Iowa State 17 26.2, 71 Colorado 10 20.0
63% 219 San Diego 13 27.8, 237 Morehead State 7 21.7
63% 55 Mississippi 42 33.5, 57 Tennessee 17 28.7
63% 6 Stanford 55 37.0, 21 Southern California 21 32.1
62% 79 Appalachian State 27 37.7, 115 Elon 10 31.7
61% 229 Marist 14 21.6, 239 Davidson 6 17.0
61% 213 Duquesne 45 29.4, 227 Sacred Heart 42 27.4
61% 212 Norfolk State 21 22.8, 230 Delaware State 16 19.1
61% 205 Eastern Illinois 49 22.2, 203 Tennessee - Martin 13 18.9
61% 204 Prairie View 34 27.7, 224 Alcorn State 14 24.2
61% 163 Sam Houston State 17 23.0, 158 Central Arkansas 14 19.9
61% 141 Weber State 27 28.6, 137 Northern Arizona 9 25.1
61% 140 North Dakota State 56 28.7, 161 Indiana State 17 24.2
61% 138 Southern Illinois 44 40.4, 149 Missouri State 24 33.2
61% 131 Rice 28 31.5, 125 Tulane 20 28.7
61% 108 Eastern Washington 41 29.9, 132 Southern Utah 28 28.3
61% 59 Louisville 10 21.8, 56 Syracuse 9 17.8
61% 44 Central Florida 37 36.8, 50 Houston 32 31.3
49% 114 Florida Atlantic 35 26.5, 95 Arkansas State 18 26.6
49% 32 North Carolina 33 22.0, 24 Miami - Florida 24 22.1
48% 11 Florida 24 24.3, 20 South Carolina 14 24.6
43% 121 Pennsylvania 17 22.5, 134 Harvard 7 23.3
43% 34 Texas 47 25.4, 40 Baylor 14 26.5
40% 64 Cincinnati 24 21.4, 42 West Virginia 21 22.7
39% 226 Austin Peay 24 20.7, 208 Tennessee State 21 24.9
39% 215 Nicholls State 28 23.5, 193 Northwestern State 21 27.9
39% 210 Hampton 25 17.8, 184 Florida A&M 0 20.3
39% 192 Dayton 23 29.3, 200 Drake 6 31.0
39% 188 California - Davis 28 23.1, 162 North Dakota 20 25.2
39% 166 McNeese State 30 26.7, 170 Texas State - San Marc 27 28.7
39% 151 South Dakota 50 25.3, 152 California Poly 48 28.9
39% 142 Montana State 27 32.9, 113 Sacramento State 17 35.0
39% 126 Furman 30 27.6, 133 Georgia Southern 22 30.8
39% 101 Central Michigan 56 22.9, 82 Toledo 28 25.5
39% 68 Boston College 14 19.0, 73 Virginia 10 21.5
39% 28 California 24 25.9, 14 Arizona 16 28.0
39% 23 Georgia 31 33.8, 9 Auburn 24 37.5
38% 187 Western Carolina 24 16.7, 178 Eastern Kentucky 7 23.0
38% 100 James Madison 17 16.5, 105 Massachusetts 14 19.8
37% 214 Idaho State 41 27.2, 182 Portland State 34 34.0
36% 116 Bowling Green 35 24.6, 109 Miami - Ohio 14 29.9
34% 61 East Carolina 44 38.2, 65 Tulsa 17 41.6
34% 36 Clemson 43 24.7, 29 North Carolina State 23 31.8
33% 80 Rutgers 31 18.4, 53 South Florida 0 24.3
31% 236 Southern 34 20.9, 216 Alabama State 24 28.2
26% 233 Alabama A&M 13 19.4, 199 Jackson State 5 28.5
23% 222 Charleston Southern 30 25.8, 164 Stony Brook 27 40.1
18% 220 Princeton 24 19.9, 172 Yale 17 30.7
18% 135 Samford 27 15.0, 104 Wofford 24 26.2
15% 96 Wyoming 30 22.5, 67 San Diego State 27 37.6
12% 74 Northwestern 21 14.7, 33 Illinois 16 30.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.00 45 0.82 19 1.17 47 1.06 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 116 83 86.1 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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