prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 156 Bethune - Cookman 35 43.9, 239 Howard 20 8.5
91% 37 Air Force 48 49.1, 178 New Mexico 23 6.8
91% 11 Nebraska 20 45.9, 120 Kansas 3 6.9
90% 236 Morehead State 37 39.4, 244 Valparaiso 15 11.8
90% 113 Montana 27 36.2, 181 North Dakota 17 12.7
90% 30 Louisiana State 51 37.5, 134 Northeast Louisiana 0 1.7
90% 7 Ohio State 38 32.9, 34 Penn State 14 13.1
90% 4 Alabama 30 32.6, 36 Mississippi State 10 6.6
89% 208 Drake 10 26.0, 235 Butler 7 11.5
89% 144 Jacksonville 31 52.7, 241 Campbell 24 10.6
89% 110 Marshall 28 35.0, 174 Memphis 13 14.7
88% 225 Alabama A&M 21 29.0, 242 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 10.3
88% 96 Western Michigan 45 45.8, 195 Eastern Michigan 30 17.9
88% 3 Texas Christian 40 50.7, 76 San Diego State 35 11.7
87% 151 Columbia 20 31.8, 206 Cornell 17 14.4
87% 19 Arkansas 58 49.0, 126 Texas - El Paso 21 13.0
87% 12 Missouri 38 36.7, 57 Kansas State 28 15.2
86% 148 South Carolina State 32 32.8, 222 Morgan State 10 13.0
86% 123 Stephen F. Austin 51 44.0, 216 Southeast Louisiana 14 15.3
86% 122 Lehigh 24 35.5, 215 Georgetown 7 11.7
86% 87 Richmond 15 35.3, 160 Rhode Island 6 13.5
86% 82 Louisiana Tech 41 31.4, 173 New Mexico State 20 10.7
86% 50 Kentucky 38 31.8, 88 Vanderbilt 20 17.7
86% 25 Wisconsin 83 46.7, 97 Indiana 20 18.2
86% 2 Oklahoma 45 49.7, 46 Texas Tech 7 17.2
85% 89 Northern Iowa 38 40.9, 163 Missouri State 14 18.3
84% 209 Norfolk State 31 26.0, 231 Delaware State 21 15.6
84% 190 Prairie View 35 32.3, 229 Alcorn State 27 17.5
84% 176 Dayton 41 29.7, 227 Marist 34 17.6
84% 129 Sacramento State 45 40.0, 218 Idaho State 17 17.5
84% 81 Pennsylvania 34 24.3, 99 Harvard 14 14.6
84% 5 Boise State 52 54.6, 91 Idaho 14 21.0
83% 219 San Diego 29 22.1, 238 Davidson 15 12.5
83% 167 Stony Brook 55 34.0, 204 Gardner - Webb 3 20.2
82% 207 Duquesne 41 34.9, 234 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 19.5
82% 159 Yale 14 28.0, 183 Princeton 13 17.6
82% 149 Colgate 31 32.3, 214 Bucknell 7 17.1
82% 124 Maine 28 32.6, 189 Towson 18 17.4
81% 109 Florida Atlantic 24 36.3, 161 Louisiana - Lafayette 23 21.2
81% 108 Jacksonville State 29 35.2, 155 Southeast Missouri Sta 27 21.2
81% 69 Appalachian State 43 41.3, 118 Wofford 13 23.2
81% 60 Boston College 21 31.1, 102 Duke 16 19.2
80% 119 North Dakota State 31 21.7, 128 South Dakota State 24 15.6
80% 49 Navy 38 31.4, 84 Central Michigan 37 18.6
80% 39 North Carolina State 38 46.7, 98 Wake Forest 3 25.8
80% 6 Stanford 17 37.5, 41 Arizona State 13 22.0
79% 141 Georgia Southern 28 25.3, 177 Western Carolina 6 17.3
79% 68 Northern Illinois 65 36.1, 101 Toledo 30 22.2
78% 125 Brown 35 25.1, 162 Dartmouth 28 17.0
78% 106 Eastern Washington 31 36.5, 152 Southern Utah 24 23.3
77% 111 Utah State 38 28.2, 157 San Jose State 34 20.4
77% 40 West Virginia 37 27.2, 54 Cincinnati 10 19.1
77% 1 Oregon 15 42.8, 27 California 13 27.9
76% 192 Albany 24 25.8, 200 Wagner 14 19.3
76% 77 Brigham Young 49 25.2, 115 Colorado State 10 18.5
76% 16 Florida State 16 32.3, 29 Clemson 13 23.3
75% 179 Illinois State 27 32.4, 199 Eastern Illinois 23 24.1
75% 175 Old Dominion 45 28.2, 193 Virginia Military 28 20.9
75% 43 East Carolina 54 42.5, 104 Alabama - Birmingham 42 29.0
75% 24 Nevada - Reno 35 45.7, 85 Fresno State 34 29.9
71% 172 McNeese State 36 32.6, 184 Texas State - San Marc 6 25.3
71% 13 Auburn 49 37.2, 20 Georgia 31 28.4
70% 10 Virginia Tech 26 27.7, 26 North Carolina 10 22.3
69% 210 Charleston Southern 42 36.4, 223 Presbyterian 39 28.8
69% 47 Michigan 27 37.4, 92 Purdue 16 28.5
67% 202 Murray State 61 38.7, 226 Austin Peay 35 31.2
67% 130 Southern Illinois 20 33.7, 138 Western Illinois 10 27.8
61% 203 Jackson State 52 24.4, 217 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 30 22.7
60% 201 Florida A&M 17 18.1, 188 Hampton 12 16.5
60% 121 Elon 30 30.1, 116 Furman 25 27.9
59% 169 Central Connecticut 49 26.9, 186 Monmouth 48 25.4
59% 127 Weber State 27 26.2, 147 Northern Arizona 26 24.8
59% 78 Delaware 45 23.6, 93 Massachusetts 27 22.3
58% 45 Texas A&M 42 32.9, 55 Baylor 30 31.1
57% 143 Tulane 54 28.2, 137 Rice 49 27.0
54% 72 Colorado 34 20.6, 65 Iowa State 14 20.2
50% 59 Maryland 42 23.1, 70 Virginia 23 23.1
47% 23 Miami - Florida 35 27.1, 32 Georgia Tech 10 27.6
42% 153 Holy Cross 37 25.4, 158 Lafayette 27 26.8
41% 94 Army 45 20.3, 100 Kent State 28 21.2
40% 146 Tennessee - Chattanoog 48 24.6, 131 Samford 14 26.5
40% 71 Tennessee 52 29.7, 44 Mississippi 14 32.1
37% 63 Syracuse 13 17.1, 62 Rutgers 10 19.2
36% 230 Alabama State 21 24.0, 228 Southern 19 27.6
34% 139 Ball State 20 22.2, 133 Buffalo 3 25.8
33% 205 Northern Colorado 35 29.7, 196 Portland State 30 36.0
33% 18 Oklahoma State 33 26.7, 21 Texas 16 31.9
31% 79 Tulsa 28 34.6, 56 Houston 25 44.6
30% 211 Texas Southern 41 26.0, 171 Grambling 34 34.6
30% 197 Eastern Kentucky 42 21.3, 187 Tennessee Tech 29 26.2
30% 180 California - Davis 22 26.7, 165 California Poly 21 35.3
29% 170 Sam Houston State 20 18.6, 168 Central Arkansas 13 22.3
29% 132 Nevada - Las Vegas 42 22.6, 95 Wyoming 16 28.1
28% 58 Connecticut 30 22.2, 28 Pittsburgh 28 29.9
27% 224 Tennessee - Martin 37 17.4, 213 Tennessee State 0 21.2
27% 86 James Madison 30 14.2, 64 William & Mary 24 18.0
27% 31 Southern California 24 24.2, 17 Arizona 21 31.1
25% 220 Nicholls State 37 21.6, 212 Northwestern State 7 28.3
25% 112 Florida International 52 26.7, 90 Troy State 35 37.6
24% 182 Coastal Carolina 45 26.4, 107 Liberty 31 41.4
23% 67 South Florida 24 15.9, 66 Louisville 21 21.3
22% 194 Indiana State 30 25.9, 140 Youngstown State 24 43.9
22% 74 Southern Mississippi 31 22.4, 48 Central Florida 21 32.9
22% 53 Notre Dame 28 25.4, 9 Utah 3 40.0
21% 135 Miami - Ohio 24 20.5, 103 Bowling Green 21 31.9
20% 166 Western Kentucky 36 23.6, 117 Arkansas State 35 39.2
19% 185 Bryant 27 16.8, 142 Robert Morris 21 25.9
18% 243 Savannah State 28 17.0, 233 North Carolina Central 21 33.2
17% 61 Northwestern 21 14.5, 14 Iowa 17 29.3
16% 240 Lamar 24 13.3, 154 South Dakota 20 46.2
16% 145 North Texas 23 18.2, 114 Middle Tennessee State 17 28.8
15% 73 New Hampshire 31 15.9, 33 Villanova 24 31.1
15% 22 South Carolina 36 16.2, 8 Florida 14 29.9
12% 150 Washington State 31 10.5, 15 Oregon State 14 54.4
12% 105 Minnesota 38 14.5, 38 Illinois 34 35.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.17 15 0.61 35 0.72 48 0.96 5 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 115 77 88.5 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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