prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 45 Hawaii 41 40.3, 156 San Jose State 7 8.0
91% 34 Michigan State 35 33.8, 96 Purdue 31 9.9
90% 109 Eastern Washington 34 44.6, 222 Idaho State 7 11.1
90% 70 New Hampshire 38 43.1, 195 Towson 19 5.8
90% 47 Brigham Young 40 47.1, 179 New Mexico 7 8.5
90% 21 Nevada - Reno 52 58.3, 181 New Mexico State 6 9.5
89% 75 Pennsylvania 31 36.9, 208 Cornell 7 4.3
89% 66 William & Mary 41 23.1, 92 Richmond 3 10.3
89% 49 Texas 51 33.2, 116 Florida Atlantic 17 7.6
88% 170 Eastern Kentucky 17 45.3, 232 Austin Peay 3 16.0
88% 153 Holy Cross 34 33.1, 217 Bucknell 9 11.4
88% 122 South Dakota State 21 31.7, 187 North Dakota 0 11.7
88% 108 Elon 45 37.6, 197 Western Carolina 14 13.6
88% 11 Louisiana State 43 40.6, 76 Mississippi 36 13.5
88% 4 Alabama 63 65.6, 230 Georgia State 7 0.0
88% 2 Boise State 51 56.3, 79 Fresno State 0 16.1
87% 209 Norfolk State 42 35.4, 242 Savannah State 6 11.4
87% 147 South Carolina State 48 40.1, 239 North Carolina A&T 3 9.6
87% 101 Stephen F. Austin 36 44.6, 218 Northwestern State 13 11.1
87% 97 Harvard 28 28.8, 149 Yale 21 14.1
86% 29 Clemson 30 35.1, 104 Wake Forest 10 15.1
85% 135 Northern Arizona 62 38.4, 196 Portland State 14 19.3
85% 61 Central Florida 61 35.9, 143 Tulane 14 17.2
85% 60 Tulsa 31 40.5, 123 Texas - El Paso 28 19.4
85% 59 Boston College 17 28.3, 83 Virginia 13 16.6
85% 51 Texas Tech 64 44.9, 141 Weber State 21 16.4
85% 38 Air Force 35 41.4, 126 Nevada - Las Vegas 20 18.5
85% 15 South Carolina 69 44.0, 93 Troy State 24 15.4
85% 10 Oklahoma State 48 47.0, 98 Kansas 14 19.2
84% 174 Central Connecticut 23 48.0, 235 Saint Francis - Pennsy 13 19.9
84% 58 Northern Illinois 59 35.8, 137 Ball State 21 17.1
84% 12 Florida 48 46.2, 77 Appalachian State 10 17.8
83% 199 Prairie View 35 22.8, 231 Alabama A&M 14 13.1
83% 177 Old Dominion 33 38.5, 238 North Carolina Central 21 16.3
83% 111 Miami - Ohio 19 35.0, 193 Akron 14 19.2
83% 39 Tennessee 24 32.5, 90 Vanderbilt 10 18.0
83% 36 Penn State 41 38.9, 110 Indiana 24 17.0
83% 20 Missouri 14 34.3, 80 Iowa State 0 17.9
82% 210 Georgetown 14 28.6, 228 Marist 7 17.4
82% 173 Murray State 28 39.2, 226 Tennessee State 23 19.7
82% 112 Alabama - Birmingham 31 41.1, 180 Memphis 15 22.4
82% 37 Navy 35 43.4, 106 Arkansas State 19 20.0
81% 172 Sam Houston State 31 35.7, 207 Texas State - San Marc 29 21.5
80% 184 Texas Southern 20 35.8, 221 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 13 21.2
80% 158 Coastal Carolina 70 46.7, 215 Charleston Southern 3 25.0
80% 125 Brown 38 29.4, 154 Columbia 16 18.6
80% 7 Oklahoma 53 39.5, 54 Baylor 24 20.5
79% 84 James Madison 14 22.2, 131 Maine 10 14.7
79% 35 Notre Dame 27 31.6, 82 Army 3 18.1
78% 53 Georgia Tech 30 39.5, 86 Duke 20 25.7
77% 225 Delaware State 53 33.6, 241 Howard 43 23.4
77% 138 Southern Illinois 49 31.9, 171 Indiana State 21 20.6
77% 85 Southern Methodist 31 26.9, 102 Marshall 17 20.0
77% 62 Cincinnati 69 28.4, 78 Rutgers 38 20.2
76% 183 Albany 28 26.9, 191 Monmouth 19 20.3
76% 117 Lehigh 20 27.9, 169 Lafayette 13 20.4
76% 87 Florida International 38 40.9, 161 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 26.7
75% 206 Hampton 21 23.2, 223 Morgan State 16 18.4
75% 28 West Virginia 17 21.7, 63 Louisville 10 16.2
75% 6 Stanford 48 31.2, 25 California 14 23.1
75% 5 Ohio State 20 25.8, 23 Iowa 17 19.0
73% 164 Dartmouth 31 31.0, 198 Princeton 0 23.6
72% 227 Presbyterian 42 30.1, 233 Davidson 6 23.0
71% 103 Western Michigan 38 27.6, 107 Kent State 3 22.4
71% 100 Toledo 33 36.5, 124 Bowling Green 14 27.5
70% 192 Jackson State 27 40.0, 213 Alcorn State 14 29.7
70% 26 Utah 38 38.1, 68 San Diego State 34 28.0
66% 211 Nicholls State 27 31.2, 216 Southeast Louisiana 25 26.0
65% 19 Florida State 30 31.8, 41 Maryland 16 26.6
63% 18 Arkansas 38 28.9, 33 Mississippi State 31 25.3
62% 166 Central Arkansas 28 22.7, 159 McNeese State 24 20.5
62% 142 Colgate 47 27.8, 163 Fordham 12 24.9
62% 130 Liberty 54 32.1, 133 Stony Brook 28 28.3
62% 69 Southern Mississippi 59 40.5, 71 Houston 41 35.2
62% 48 Connecticut 23 23.8, 67 Syracuse 6 21.6
62% 13 Wisconsin 48 43.4, 44 Michigan 28 37.5
61% 134 Wyoming 44 25.3, 132 Colorado State 0 23.6
60% 220 Gardner - Webb 10 23.7, 214 Virginia Military 7 22.0
60% 118 Wofford 45 31.7, 113 Tennessee - Chattanoog 14 28.8
59% 240 Morehead State 30 26.7, 237 Campbell 24 25.3
59% 50 Illinois 48 27.5, 65 Northwestern 27 25.7
59% 31 Pittsburgh 17 26.2, 46 South Florida 10 24.8
58% 145 Northeast Louisiana 49 23.5, 140 North Texas 37 22.5
56% 22 Texas A&M 9 27.6, 14 Nebraska 6 26.7
54% 105 Idaho 28 35.5, 115 Utah State 6 34.5
48% 144 Middle Tennessee State 27 28.8, 155 Western Kentucky 26 29.1
42% 56 Villanova 28 23.7, 64 Delaware 21 25.1
40% 30 North Carolina State 29 23.0, 32 North Carolina 25 24.8
40% 9 Virginia Tech 31 23.8, 17 Miami - Florida 17 25.5
39% 128 Western Illinois 30 23.4, 99 Northern Iowa 14 25.7
39% 72 Washington 24 23.2, 57 California - Los Angel 7 25.0
36% 114 Georgia Southern 32 24.2, 120 Furman 28 28.0
34% 42 Oregon State 36 27.4, 16 Southern California 7 33.2
33% 165 Missouri State 3 25.6, 127 North Dakota State 0 30.6
31% 73 Colorado 44 24.8, 43 Kansas State 36 30.5
28% 139 Rhode Island 37 22.6, 95 Massachusetts 34 29.8
28% 129 Montana State 21 25.5, 121 Montana 16 33.3
26% 151 Rice 62 36.3, 74 East Carolina 38 53.9
25% 224 Sacred Heart 38 22.4, 194 Wagner 22 30.3
25% 176 California - Davis 17 24.0, 119 Sacramento State 16 33.8
23% 81 Ohio 31 20.2, 52 Temple 23 29.2
22% 190 Florida A&M 38 21.2, 160 Bethune - Cookman 27 29.8
21% 201 Tennessee Tech 35 23.6, 136 Jacksonville State 24 39.0
21% 188 Eastern Michigan 21 22.9, 146 Buffalo 17 36.7
18% 202 Duquesne 37 18.7, 175 Bryant 29 30.1
9% 204 The Citadel 13 7.6, 157 Samford 12 23.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.32 20 0.96 30 0.93 44 1.15 4 0.83 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 85 80.8 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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