prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 48 Hawaii 59 40.9, 175 New Mexico State 24 8.0
90% 14 Nebraska 45 37.3, 68 Colorado 17 12.8
90% 3 Texas Christian 66 60.4, 179 New Mexico 17 2.1
89% 43 Central Florida 37 42.0, 178 Memphis 17 8.2
89% 17 Missouri 35 38.0, 108 Kansas 7 7.0
89% 11 Virginia Tech 37 44.6, 80 Virginia 7 12.0
88% 38 Arizona State 55 25.8, 62 California - Los Angel 34 15.3
86% 49 Northern Illinois 71 54.0, 182 Eastern Michigan 3 18.0
86% 15 Wisconsin 70 42.9, 73 Northwestern 23 17.1
86% 1 Oregon 48 44.5, 21 Arizona 29 20.7
84% 7 Ohio State 37 48.2, 51 Michigan 7 22.5
83% 183 Grambling 38 45.5, 238 Southern 17 21.3
83% 46 Kansas State 49 42.1, 142 North Texas 41 17.3
82% 109 Marshall 38 34.0, 151 Tulane 23 19.9
82% 57 San Diego State 48 44.0, 123 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 23.1
82% 24 Utah 17 33.6, 54 Brigham Young 16 18.2
81% 85 Louisiana Tech 45 30.7, 152 San Jose State 38 17.6
81% 35 North Carolina 24 36.4, 83 Duke 19 20.5
81% 28 Georgia 42 35.6, 59 Georgia Tech 34 20.5
81% 4 Stanford 38 40.5, 25 Oregon State 0 22.5
77% 101 Troy State 28 46.7, 161 Western Kentucky 14 29.9
76% 33 Mississippi State 31 35.3, 76 Mississippi 23 24.2
71% 44 Texas Tech 35 47.4, 72 Houston 20 33.6
71% 42 Tennessee 24 36.4, 56 Kentucky 14 27.8
70% 88 Toledo 42 32.1, 97 Central Michigan 31 24.3
70% 81 Western Michigan 41 32.0, 131 Bowling Green 7 25.3
70% 64 Louisville 40 27.8, 87 Rutgers 13 20.9
68% 91 Florida International 31 33.8, 102 Arkansas State 24 27.1
67% 79 Fresno State 23 34.0, 82 Idaho 20 27.7
67% 18 Texas A&M 24 26.4, 45 Texas 17 21.6
67% 13 South Carolina 29 23.8, 31 Clemson 7 19.4
63% 50 Connecticut 38 32.5, 53 Cincinnati 17 27.8
61% 65 Tulsa 56 38.2, 67 Southern Mississippi 50 34.4
58% 16 Florida State 31 29.6, 9 Florida 7 27.9
56% 6 Oklahoma 47 37.2, 10 Oklahoma State 41 35.4
55% 66 Boston College 16 16.3, 70 Syracuse 7 15.9
52% 140 Middle Tennessee State 38 24.3, 125 Florida Atlantic 14 24.1
50% 129 Rice 28 35.9, 114 Alabama - Birmingham 23 35.8
46% 78 Southern Methodist 45 37.1, 86 East Carolina 38 38.1
39% 34 Michigan State 28 23.4, 41 Penn State 22 26.1
39% 19 Arkansas 31 29.5, 12 Louisiana State 23 32.7
38% 47 Maryland 38 25.7, 29 North Carolina State 31 28.9
33% 100 Wake Forest 34 24.0, 94 Vanderbilt 13 28.3
33% 27 West Virginia 35 18.8, 30 Pittsburgh 10 22.0
30% 8 Auburn 28 28.8, 5 Alabama 27 37.5
28% 20 Nevada - Reno 34 33.2, 2 Boise State 31 46.2
24% 189 Akron 22 20.0, 155 Buffalo 14 27.0
24% 112 Indiana 34 24.3, 89 Purdue 31 34.7
23% 166 Louisiana - Lafayette 23 25.0, 133 Northeast Louisiana 22 35.8
20% 61 Washington 16 19.3, 32 California 13 31.3
20% 36 Notre Dame 20 20.0, 26 Southern California 16 29.6
18% 117 Miami - Ohio 23 16.2, 58 Temple 3 30.2
17% 121 Kent State 28 16.8, 69 Ohio 6 30.0
15% 93 Minnesota 27 15.5, 22 Iowa 24 35.2
12% 52 South Florida 23 13.2, 23 Miami - Florida 20 28.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.54 12 0.90 11 0.74 24 0.89 2 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 55 38 41.1 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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