prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 3 Boise State 50 59.1, 124 Utah State 14 5.2
89% 22 West Virginia 35 37.0, 94 Rutgers 14 7.2
88% 69 Delaware 42 30.4, 125 Lehigh 20 11.8
88% 48 Hawaii 59 43.7, 131 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 16.8
85% 84 Idaho 26 34.8, 149 San Jose State 23 17.0
82% 106 Eastern Washington 37 32.1, 153 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 18.3
82% 50 Central Florida 17 32.1, 73 Southern Methodist 7 19.4
81% 1 Oregon 37 42.6, 30 Oregon State 20 24.0
80% 16 Nevada - Reno 35 49.4, 87 Louisiana Tech 17 26.4
79% 78 Appalachian State 42 36.9, 113 Western Illinois 14 23.3
78% 76 New Hampshire 45 35.6, 164 Bethune - Cookman 20 17.9
78% 53 Washington 35 32.9, 96 Washington State 28 20.5
74% 26 Southern California 28 31.2, 65 California - Los Angel 14 22.7
67% 61 Villanova 54 33.4, 89 Stephen F. Austin 24 26.1
67% 5 Oklahoma 23 33.3, 11 Nebraska 20 26.6
64% 102 Wofford 17 30.3, 136 Jacksonville State 14 26.0
62% 99 Troy State 44 33.8, 133 Florida Atlantic 7 29.2
61% 39 Pittsburgh 28 31.5, 62 Cincinnati 10 28.3
61% 8 Auburn 56 34.4, 12 South Carolina 17 30.7
48% 13 Virginia Tech 44 27.1, 10 Florida State 33 27.6
36% 120 North Dakota State 42 20.9, 117 Montana State 17 24.8
29% 49 Connecticut 19 20.0, 46 South Florida 16 25.0
28% 32 Arizona State 30 24.1, 21 Arizona 29 31.9
25% 81 Fresno State 25 25.1, 36 Illinois 23 35.2
22% 127 Middle Tennessee State 28 22.1, 92 Florida International 27 32.4
16% 104 Georgia Southern 31 14.2, 64 William & Mary 15 31.0
14% 98 Miami - Ohio 26 15.5, 37 Northern Illinois 21 35.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 7 1.34 9 0.73 9 0.91 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 27 19 20.4 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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