prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 54 Brigham Young 52 31.1, 119 Texas - El Paso 24 12.3
83% 15 Florida 37 29.3, 45 Penn State 24 17.2
82% 6 Oklahoma 48 39.2, 50 Connecticut 20 17.5
81% 66 Delaware 27 28.3, 91 Georgia Southern 10 16.6
81% 16 Nevada - Reno 20 37.3, 60 Boston College 13 21.4
81% 8 Alabama 49 32.6, 28 Michigan State 7 18.7
78% 4 Boise State 26 39.6, 22 Utah 3 24.8
77% 96 Miami - Ohio 35 25.9, 124 Middle Tennessee State 21 19.7
76% 44 Texas Tech 45 35.3, 77 Northwestern 38 24.6
75% 40 Maryland 51 47.0, 86 East Carolina 20 32.0
74% 32 Pittsburgh 27 33.0, 61 Kentucky 10 24.7
73% 48 Northern Illinois 40 35.3, 73 Fresno State 17 26.6
73% 2 Stanford 40 36.7, 10 Virginia Tech 12 26.4
71% 7 Ohio State 31 33.5, 18 Arkansas 26 25.8
70% 3 Texas Christian 21 39.3, 9 Wisconsin 19 30.6
67% 35 Mississippi State 52 33.6, 53 Michigan 14 28.0
66% 39 Air Force 14 32.2, 59 Georgia Tech 7 27.0
66% 11 Oklahoma State 36 38.1, 23 Arizona 10 31.6
63% 55 Louisville 31 32.1, 67 Southern Mississippi 28 27.8
62% 42 Illinois 38 32.4, 56 Baylor 14 28.9
62% 37 North Carolina 30 24.5, 43 Tennessee 27 22.2
61% 13 Louisiana State 41 26.1, 19 Texas A&M 24 23.8
60% 14 Florida State 26 28.4, 20 South Carolina 17 26.3
41% 57 San Diego State 35 30.7, 38 Navy 14 33.4
40% 97 Florida International 34 29.0, 87 Toledo 32 31.7
39% 89 Troy State 48 30.8, 78 Ohio 21 34.2
36% 84 Army 16 22.6, 75 Southern Methodist 14 25.9
36% 5 Auburn 22 39.1, 1 Oregon 19 46.5
35% 31 North Carolina State 23 22.1, 21 West Virginia 7 25.8
34% 33 Notre Dame 33 19.4, 26 Miami - Florida 17 22.1
28% 62 Tulsa 62 31.1, 41 Hawaii 35 40.7
28% 25 Iowa 27 17.7, 17 Missouri 24 22.1
26% 49 Central Florida 10 22.3, 27 Georgia 6 29.9
25% 69 Syracuse 36 22.2, 47 Kansas State 34 29.3
25% 52 South Florida 31 16.6, 36 Clemson 26 21.0
22% 104 Eastern Washington 41 21.2, 46 Villanova 31 35.6
21% 104 Eastern Washington 20 19.7, 66 Delaware 19 32.0
16% 58 Washington 19 17.5, 12 Nebraska 7 34.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.84 14 0.89 15 0.71 7 1.04 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 38 23 27.1 0.85
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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