9 Jan 2012: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2011 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  5   9 11.5  7.0 Louisiana State          124 58   0  9.2  5.2 Eastern Michigan        
  2  5   9 11.2  7.1 Alabama                  125 46   0 10.3  4.6 Indiana State           
  3  6  10 13.6  6.0 Oklahoma State           126 25   0 10.3  4.6 Eastern Washington      
  4  6  10 13.3  6.0 Oregon                   127 61   0  9.8  4.9 Appalachian State       
  5 21   9 12.4  6.2 Stanford                 128 59   0  9.5  5.0 Buffalo                 
  6  7   9 12.8  6.0 Wisconsin                129 47   0  9.9  4.7 Stephen F. Austin       
  7  7   8 11.8  6.3 Oklahoma                 130 55   0 10.6  4.4 Stony Brook             
  8  7   8 12.1  6.2 Boise State              131 46   0 10.4  4.5 Central Arkansas        
  9 36   7 11.5  6.1 Southern California      132 46   0  8.9  5.2 Delaware                
 10 29   7 12.0  5.9 Arkansas                 133 32   0  9.7  4.8 Furman                  
 11  8   8 13.2  5.4 Houston                  134 64   0 10.5  4.4 Indiana                 
 12 35   7 11.3  6.1 Michigan                 135 37   0  9.8  4.7 Central Michigan        
 13 33   6 10.8  6.3 South Carolina           136 31   0 10.4  4.4 Weber State             
 14 27   6 10.6  6.3 Michigan State           137 65   0  9.5  4.9 Idaho                   
 15 46   7 12.0  5.7 Texas A&M                138 70   0 10.1  4.5 New Mexico State        
 16 10   6 10.9  6.2 Missouri                 139 70   0 10.3  4.4 Liberty                 
 17 13   6 11.2  6.0 Georgia                  140 54   0  9.5  4.8 Colorado State          
 18 11   6 11.8  5.7 Texas Christian          141 30   0  9.3  4.9 Eastern Kentucky        
 19 50   6 10.7  6.2 Notre Dame               142 26   0  9.5  4.8 South Dakota            
 20 13   6 10.4  6.3 Florida State            143 19   0  9.3  4.8 Samford                 
 21 23   6 10.2  6.4 Texas                    144 49   0  9.8  4.6 Troy State              
 22 53   6 13.1  5.0 Baylor                   145 58   0 10.8  4.1 Murray State            
 23 23   5 10.7  6.0 Nebraska                 146 35   0 10.4  4.3 Portland State          
 24 13   5 10.1  6.3 Virginia Tech            147 31   0  9.0  4.9 North Dakota            
 25 13   6 12.0  5.4 West Virginia            148 49   0  9.5  4.6 Southern Illinois       
 26 59   5 11.6  5.5 Arizona State            149 51   0  9.7  4.5 Jacksonville State      
 27 13   5 11.1  5.7 Southern Mississippi     150 16   0  9.5  4.6 Tennessee Tech          
 28 48   5 10.4  6.1 California               151 20   0  9.1  4.8 Sacramento State        
 29 19   5  9.8  6.3 Utah                     152 41   0  9.6  4.6 Massachusetts           
 30 35   5 10.4  6.0 Florida                  153 47   0  8.8  4.9 The Citadel             
 31 50   5 11.1  5.7 Kansas State             154 23   0  9.2  4.7 Northern Arizona        
 32 22   4  9.1  6.6 Penn State               155 **   0  9.7  4.5 Albany                  
 33 13   5 11.0  5.7 Cincinnati               156 57  -1  9.7  4.4 South Dakota State      
 34 50   4 10.1  6.0 Ohio State               157 46  -1  9.9  4.3 Alabama - Birmingham    
 35 81   5 10.3  5.9 Vanderbilt               158 77  -1  8.6  4.9 Holy Cross              
 36 60   4 10.0  6.1 Mississippi State        159 59  -1  9.5  4.5 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 37 50   5 11.2  5.5 Tulsa                    160 27  -1  9.9  4.3 Tennessee - Martin      
 38 41   5 11.5  5.3 Clemson                  161 41  -1  8.4  5.0 William & Mary          
 39 47   4 10.0  6.1 Temple                   162 92  -1  9.3  4.5 Bethune - Cookman       
 40 17   4 10.1  6.0 Miami - Florida          163 23  -1  8.6  4.9 California - Davis      
 41 30   5 12.4  4.9 Toledo                   164 92  -1  8.3  5.0 Brown                   
 42 30   4 10.5  5.8 Iowa                     165 81  -1  9.0  4.7 South Carolina State    
 43 50   4 10.4  5.8 Louisiana Tech           166 93  -1  9.4  4.4 Jackson State           
 44 30   4 10.4  5.8 Brigham Young            167 30  -1  9.3  4.5 Rhode Island            
 45 41   4  9.7  6.1 Tennessee                168 40  -1 10.0  4.1 Middle Tennessee State  
 46 31   4 10.8  5.5 Auburn                   169 29  -1  9.6  4.3 Missouri State          
 47 98   4 11.6  5.1 Washington               170 51  -1  9.4  4.4 Tulane                  
 48 22   4 10.6  5.6 Nevada - Reno            171 41  -1  9.8  4.1 Elon                    
 49 32   4  9.8  6.0 Rutgers                  172 43  -1  9.0  4.5 Richmond                
 50 63   4 11.3  5.3 Arizona                  173 91  -1  9.1  4.5 Georgetown              
 51 39   4 10.7  5.6 North Carolina           174 **  -2  8.8  4.6 Duquesne                
 52 79   4 10.0  5.9 Iowa State               175 71  -1  8.2  4.9 Norfolk State           
 53 20   4 11.0  5.4 Georgia Tech             176 **  -2  9.7  4.1 Jacksonville            
 54 15   4 10.4  5.7 South Florida            177 57  -2  8.8  4.5 McNeese State           
 55 44   4  9.5  6.1 Illinois                 178 16  -2  8.5  4.7 Northwestern State      
 56 15   4 11.6  5.1 Northern Illinois        179 28  -2  9.7  4.1 Tennessee State         
 57 42   4 10.2  5.7 Pittsburgh               180 32  -2  8.8  4.5 Texas State - San Marcos
 58 47   3 10.2  5.6 San Diego State          181 62  -2  8.9  4.5 Lafayette               
 59 34   3 10.3  5.6 North Carolina State     182 42  -2  8.7  4.5 Florida Atlantic        
 60 48   3  9.4  6.0 Louisville               183 53  -2  8.7  4.6 Villanova               
 61 57   3 10.8  5.3 Northwestern             184 69  -2  7.8  5.0 Bucknell                
 62 60   3  9.7  5.8 Southern Methodist       185 **  -2  9.0  4.3 Pennsylvania            
 63 34   3 10.4  5.5 Arkansas State           186 35  -2  8.9  4.4 Memphis                 
 64 90   3 10.4  5.5 California - Los Angeles 187 **  -2  8.1  4.8 Drake                   
 65 85   3  9.9  5.7 Oregon State             188 63  -2  9.1  4.3 South Alabama           
 66 41   3  9.5  5.9 North Dakota State       189 79  -2  8.3  4.7 Dartmouth               
 67 24   3 11.1  5.1 Air Force                190 41  -2  8.8  4.4 New Mexico              
 68 33   3 10.6  5.3 Ohio                     191 82  -2  8.6  4.5 Yale                    
 69 69   3 11.0  5.1 Utah State               192 66  -3  9.7  3.9 Cornell                 
 70 48   3 10.9  5.1 Navy                     193 79  -2  8.5  4.5 Alabama State           
 71 95   3 11.0  5.1 Washington State         194 **  -3  9.3  4.0 Bryant                  
 72 30   3 11.8  4.7 Texas Tech               195 66  -3  9.2  4.1 Colgate                 
 73 15   3  9.5  5.8 Central Florida          196 37  -3  8.9  4.3 Coastal Carolina        
 74 33   3 10.2  5.4 Montana                  197 27  -3  8.8  4.3 Western Illinois        
 75 57   3 10.2  5.4 Purdue                   198 19  -3  9.0  4.1 Presbyterian            
 76 47   3 10.0  5.5 Connecticut              199 30  -3  9.1  4.0 Akron                   
 77 51   3  9.8  5.6 Virginia                 200 68  -3  9.1  4.0 Texas - San Antonio     
 78 27   3 11.2  4.9 Western Michigan         201 76  -3  8.9  4.1 Florida A&M             
 79 46   3 10.2  5.4 Sam Houston State        202 **  -3  8.8  4.1 San Diego               
 80 58   2 10.1  5.4 Syracuse                 203 **  -3  8.8  4.1 Hampton                 
 81 69   2 10.4  5.2 Wake Forest              204 30  -3  8.9  4.1 Eastern Illinois        
 82 31   2 10.5  5.2 Georgia Southern         205 55  -3  8.4  4.4 Georgia State           
 83 52   2  9.1  5.8 Boston College           206 17  -4  9.8  3.5 Southeast Louisiana     
 84 63   2 11.1  4.8 Louisiana - Lafayette    207 82  -3  8.6  4.1 Monmouth                
 85 33   2  9.5  5.6 Northern Iowa            208 15  -4  8.9  3.9 Northern Colorado       
 86 69   2  9.2  5.7 Miami - Ohio             209 28  -4  8.7  4.0 Idaho State             
 87 66   2 10.9  4.8 Harvard                  210 79  -4  9.1  3.8 Central Connecticut     
 88 49   2  9.4  5.5 Florida International    211 20  -4  8.4  4.1 North Carolina A&T      
 89 67   2 10.0  5.2 Wyoming                  212 94  -4  8.5  4.1 Grambling               
 90 62   2  9.6  5.4 Marshall                 213 61  -4  8.1  4.3 Wagner                  
 91 52   2 10.5  4.9 Hawaii                   214 **  -4  8.3  4.1 Dayton                  
 92 92   1  9.9  5.2 Colorado                 215 68  -4  8.4  4.0 Sacred Heart            
 93 51   1 10.5  4.9 East Carolina            216 59  -5  9.4  3.4 Campbell                
 94 55   1  9.4  5.5 Kentucky                 217 90  -4  7.6  4.3 Alabama A&M             
 95 71   1 11.0  4.7 Fresno State             218 87  -5  8.3  3.9 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
 96 85   1  9.9  5.2 Minnesota                219 14  -5  8.9  3.6 Southeast Missouri State
 97 70   1  9.9  5.2 Army                     220 58  -5  9.0  3.5 Prairie View            
 98 85   1  9.9  5.1 San Jose State           221 35  -5  8.8  3.6 Columbia                
 99 57   1 10.1  5.0 Texas - El Paso          222 15  -5  9.7  3.1 Western Carolina        
100 83   1  9.5  5.3 Western Kentucky         223 84  -5  7.9  4.0 Robert Morris           
101 79   1  9.7  5.2 Mississippi              224 15  -5  8.2  3.8 Fordham                 
102 76   1 10.2  4.9 Ball State               225 33  -5  8.0  3.9 Morgan State            
103 87   1 10.0  5.0 Rice                     226 13  -5  8.3  3.8 Austin Peay             
104 65   1 10.3  4.9 Duke                     227 31  -5  7.6  4.1 Howard                  
105 46   1  9.9  5.1 Bowling Green            228 76  -5  7.4  4.2 Marist                  
106 56   1 10.5  4.8 Maryland                 229 55  -5  8.0  3.9 Southern                
107 85   1  9.8  5.1 North Texas              230 14  -5  7.9  3.9 Gardner - Webb          
108 51   1  9.9  5.0 Maine                    231 29  -6  8.5  3.5 Princeton               
109 41   1 10.1  4.9 Wofford                  232 61  -6  9.6  2.9 Morehead State          
110 45   1  9.6  5.2 Northeast Louisiana      233 23  -6  9.9  2.7 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
111 17   1 10.1  4.9 Montana State            234 21  -6  9.0  3.1 Lamar                   
112 34   1  9.1  5.4 Tennessee - Chattanooga  235 73  -6  8.2  3.5 Butler                  
113 29   1  9.8  5.0 Southern Utah            236 13  -6  8.6  3.3 Nicholls State          
114 75   1 10.0  4.9 Lehigh                   237 10  -6  7.9  3.6 Virginia Military       
115 37   1 10.5  4.7 California Poly          238 62  -6  8.1  3.5 Texas Southern          
116 40   0  9.3  5.2 Illinois State           239  9  -7  9.0  2.9 Charleston Southern     
117 40   0 10.6  4.6 Youngstown State         240 57  -7  7.7  3.5 Alcorn State            
118 54   0  8.8  5.5 Kent State               241 39  -7  8.1  3.3 North Carolina Central  
119 47   0 10.4  4.7 Towson                   242 11  -7  7.2  3.5 Mississippi Valley State
120 41   0 10.8  4.5 New Hampshire            243 37  -8  7.8  3.1 Delaware State          
121 75   0 10.5  4.6 Kansas                   244 54  -7  6.8  3.6 Davidson                
122 44   0  8.7  5.5 James Madison            245  7  -9  7.7  2.9 Savannah State          
123 72   0 11.0  4.3 Old Dominion             246  6 -10  7.8  2.5 Valparaiso              

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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