prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 165 Colgate 37 30.4, 201 Albany 34 15.8
87% 128 Jacksonville State 24 32.2, 183 Tennessee - Martin 23 14.3
87% 71 Iowa State 20 29.2, 116 Northern Iowa 19 14.2
86% 222 Georgetown 40 27.4, 239 Davidson 16 11.1
86% 208 Wagner 38 34.3, 237 Saint Francis - Pennsy 28 14.0
86% 100 Purdue 27 29.8, 136 Middle Tennessee State 24 17.9
86% 65 Georgia Tech 63 44.4, 192 Western Carolina 21 6.4
86% 39 Air Force 37 44.7, 168 South Dakota 20 6.5
86% 34 Pittsburgh 35 39.7, 167 Buffalo 16 0.0
86% 31 California 36 35.5, 78 Fresno State 21 15.4
86% 28 Iowa 34 47.3, 174 Tennessee Tech 7 0.9
86% 24 West Virginia 34 35.9, 121 Marshall 13 3.3
86% 23 Arizona 41 37.1, 98 Northern Arizona 10 9.3
86% 20 Texas A&M 46 36.5, 76 Southern Methodist 14 11.6
86% 18 Florida 41 45.8, 150 Florida Atlantic 3 2.2
86% 16 Missouri 17 36.4, 99 Miami - Ohio 6 4.7
86% 12 Florida State 34 48.5, 138 Northeast Louisiana 0 5.0
86% 6 Alabama 48 43.6, 103 Kent State 7 0.0
85% 104 Rutgers 48 47.2, 234 North Carolina Central 0 1.6
85% 54 Penn State 41 42.3, 156 Indiana State 7 11.1
85% 47 Tennessee 42 39.1, 122 Montana 16 14.4
85% 43 Central Florida 62 60.2, 226 Charleston Southern 0 0.8
85% 27 Arizona State 48 47.9, 162 California - Davis 14 6.1
85% 8 Ohio State 42 63.3, 198 Akron 0 0.0
85% 2 Stanford 57 58.9, 143 San Jose State 3 0.0
84% 88 Washington State 64 47.1, 215 Idaho State 21 10.0
84% 64 Cincinnati 72 59.0, 225 Austin Peay 10 6.5
84% 58 Texas 34 40.7, 126 Rice 9 16.6
84% 51 Kansas State 10 45.9, 159 Eastern Kentucky 7 13.2
84% 22 Utah 27 47.9, 119 Montana State 10 14.1
84% 15 Nebraska 40 48.9, 111 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 13.1
83% 63 Syracuse 36 33.3, 101 Wake Forest 29 18.8
83% 48 Texas Tech 50 57.2, 196 Texas State - San Marc 10 12.4
83% 45 Washington 30 35.6, 89 Eastern Washington 27 18.0
83% 38 North Carolina 42 26.8, 86 James Madison 10 7.1
83% 25 Mississippi State 59 45.1, 184 Memphis 14 2.2
83% 14 Arkansas 51 57.1, 142 Missouri State 7 13.8
83% 10 Wisconsin 51 56.2, 132 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 12.0
83% 9 Oklahoma State 61 63.9, 170 Louisiana - Lafayette 34 10.7
83% 4 Auburn 42 63.0, 120 Utah State 38 12.0
82% 218 Tennessee State 33 35.9, 235 Southern 7 19.3
82% 211 Alabama State 41 31.3, 244 Mississippi Valley Sta 9 7.1
82% 169 Old Dominion 41 46.2, 236 Campbell 14 14.5
82% 152 Maine 28 32.0, 188 Bryant 13 16.8
82% 113 South Dakota State 29 24.1, 129 Southern Utah 28 17.4
82% 97 Wofford 35 41.8, 220 Presbyterian 28 10.4
82% 55 Connecticut 35 46.4, 203 Fordham 3 2.4
82% 53 Louisville 21 48.3, 148 Murray State 9 18.3
82% 41 San Diego State 49 49.5, 151 California Poly 21 16.9
82% 37 Michigan State 28 50.0, 140 Youngstown State 6 16.8
82% 35 Illinois 33 42.1, 102 Arkansas State 15 18.4
82% 29 North Carolina State 43 47.5, 127 Liberty 21 13.5
82% 21 Southern California 19 45.8, 94 Minnesota 17 17.2
81% 46 Northern Illinois 49 36.6, 80 Army 26 20.6
81% 42 Clemson 43 38.2, 84 Troy State 19 20.5
81% 17 Virginia Tech 66 44.9, 74 Appalachian State 13 19.1
80% 147 Tulane 47 41.7, 210 Southeast Louisiana 33 20.6
80% 91 Florida International 41 35.0, 134 North Texas 16 21.2
80% 3 Boise State 35 40.1, 32 Georgia 21 19.2
79% 201 Albany 37 37.1, 243 Savannah State 34 10.1
79% 81 Ohio 44 37.9, 176 New Mexico State 24 17.1
79% 66 Kentucky 14 43.8, 157 Western Kentucky 3 20.6
78% 164 Bethune - Cookman 63 30.3, 193 Prairie View 14 21.3
78% 131 Lehigh 49 31.4, 197 Monmouth 24 18.0
78% 82 Georgia Southern 31 24.5, 155 Samford 17 11.8
78% 40 Navy 40 28.2, 61 Delaware 17 19.0
77% 213 Hampton 21 21.8, 229 Alabama A&M 20 10.8
77% 123 Kansas 42 28.3, 141 McNeese State 24 20.4
77% 108 North Dakota State 42 36.4, 209 Lafayette 6 6.7
76% 114 Central Michigan 21 29.8, 166 South Carolina State 6 15.8
75% 199 Towson 42 37.2, 224 Morgan State 3 22.3
75% 19 South Carolina 56 50.9, 96 East Carolina 37 25.1
75% 7 Oklahoma 47 51.7, 49 Tulsa 14 26.0
74% 109 Wyoming 35 32.0, 133 Weber State 32 23.7
74% 44 Hawaii 34 36.0, 68 Colorado 17 24.6
73% 202 Eastern Michigan 41 52.6, 241 Howard 9 24.7
73% 110 Massachusetts 24 34.4, 187 Holy Cross 16 17.3
71% 124 Texas - El Paso 31 34.2, 161 Stony Brook 24 22.4
68% 137 Colorado State 14 34.3, 178 New Mexico 10 25.0
66% 69 Southern Mississippi 19 38.2, 85 Louisiana Tech 17 28.2
63% 173 Grambling 21 36.0, 206 Alcorn State 14 28.0
62% 62 Michigan 34 41.3, 77 Western Michigan 10 31.3
61% 171 North Dakota 16 29.5, 207 Drake 0 17.3
61% 52 Brigham Young 14 33.1, 79 Mississippi 13 27.2
58% 36 Maryland 32 26.0, 33 Miami - Florida 24 24.3
55% 112 Vanderbilt 45 27.9, 107 Elon 14 26.7
48% 67 Temple 42 24.8, 57 Villanova 7 25.2
47% 92 Toledo 58 24.1, 73 New Hampshire 22 25.2
45% 130 Southern Illinois 38 25.2, 139 Southeast Missouri Sta 10 26.0
45% 72 Houston 38 30.4, 60 California - Los Angel 34 32.3
44% 144 Coastal Carolina 30 30.6, 115 Furman 23 33.6
43% 200 Eastern Illinois 33 29.0, 172 Illinois State 26 33.0
43% 87 Virginia 40 24.8, 70 William & Mary 3 27.6
42% 191 The Citadel 31 25.3, 158 Jacksonville 9 32.9
34% 149 Sam Houston State 20 23.2, 105 Western Illinois 6 29.6
31% 154 Ball State 27 26.1, 106 Indiana 20 36.6
28% 185 Dayton 19 23.8, 160 Robert Morris 13 36.9
26% 227 Delaware State 24 17.7, 214 Virginia Military 21 28.3
26% 11 Louisiana State 40 24.5, 1 Oregon 27 40.7
24% 233 Bucknell 27 18.2, 204 Duquesne 26 31.2
24% 117 Richmond 23 19.1, 90 Duke 21 28.5
22% 232 Marist 20 22.0, 223 Sacred Heart 7 31.4
21% 56 Baylor 50 18.7, 5 Texas Christian 48 43.7
19% 153 Bowling Green 32 19.6, 83 Idaho 15 37.5
16% 50 South Florida 23 15.8, 30 Notre Dame 20 26.1
15% 95 Sacramento State 29 14.9, 26 Oregon State 28 40.8
11% 75 Northwestern 24 15.0, 59 Boston College 17 25.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.36 8 1.16 27 0.97 62 1.11 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 86 83.3 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net