prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 17 Nebraska 42 39.1, 75 Fresno State 29 13.4
87% 44 Michigan State 44 35.9, 152 Florida Atlantic 0 4.5
87% 18 Florida 39 47.6, 124 Alabama - Birmingham 0 10.6
87% 14 Florida State 62 70.3, 225 Charleston Southern 10 0.0
86% 85 Ohio 30 45.3, 219 Gardner - Webb 3 5.4
86% 65 Northwestern 42 44.2, 192 Eastern Illinois 21 8.1
86% 36 South Florida 37 40.5, 140 Ball State 7 9.0
86% 26 West Virginia 55 45.7, 216 Norfolk State 12 0.0
86% 6 Louisiana State 49 59.5, 199 Northwestern State 3 0.0
85% 107 North Dakota State 56 46.4, 234 Saint Francis - Pennsy 3 1.3
85% 62 Syracuse 21 34.6, 149 Rhode Island 14 10.9
85% 38 Illinois 56 36.0, 115 South Dakota State 3 10.3
85% 13 Arkansas 52 56.2, 182 New Mexico 3 5.5
84% 121 Bowling Green 58 47.4, 232 Morgan State 13 6.3
84% 112 Wyoming 45 41.9, 196 Texas State - San Marc 10 17.6
84% 88 Louisiana Tech 48 28.0, 139 Central Arkansas 42 13.5
84% 61 California - Los Angel 27 35.9, 145 San Jose State 17 12.7
84% 45 Temple 41 44.3, 184 Akron 3 9.1
83% 43 Pittsburgh 35 38.1, 155 Maine 29 5.8
83% 39 Clemson 35 34.7, 117 Wofford 27 8.3
83% 1 Stanford 44 56.4, 105 Duke 14 13.6
82% 143 Colorado State 33 34.5, 193 Northern Colorado 14 16.8
82% 134 Youngstown State 77 68.4, 245 Valparaiso 13 0.5
82% 102 Richmond 21 35.3, 211 Wagner 6 3.0
82% 97 Arkansas State 47 44.2, 189 Memphis 3 18.3
82% 87 Western Michigan 38 39.6, 194 Nicholls State 7 9.9
81% 146 Murray State 39 55.6, 244 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 10.6
81% 95 Appalachian State 58 62.4, 239 North Carolina A&T 6 7.2
81% 33 Navy 40 41.6, 158 Western Kentucky 14 12.0
80% 106 Montana State 38 34.5, 161 California - Davis 14 19.6
80% 30 North Carolina 24 39.2, 101 Rutgers 22 14.3
78% 100 William & Mary 24 31.8, 222 Virginia Military 7 1.3
78% 99 James Madison 14 38.6, 183 Central Connecticut 9 14.2
78% 28 California 36 28.4, 71 Colorado 33 18.2
77% 205 Southeast Louisiana 63 48.5, 241 Savannah State 6 21.0
77% 180 Illinois State 52 48.4, 238 Morehead State 21 19.3
77% 12 Wisconsin 35 39.3, 46 Oregon State 0 22.5
77% 5 Alabama 27 32.2, 49 Penn State 11 12.7
75% 162 Indiana State 48 35.1, 230 Butler 34 5.1
75% 80 Southern Methodist 28 31.1, 126 Texas - El Paso 17 17.4
75% 10 Ohio State 27 43.5, 60 Toledo 22 19.0
74% 122 Montana 37 33.1, 153 California Poly 23 23.6
73% 120 Liberty 38 34.3, 171 Robert Morris 7 17.1
73% 68 Houston 48 43.2, 151 North Texas 23 26.3
73% 59 Georgia Tech 49 38.7, 136 Middle Tennessee State 21 22.4
73% 9 Virginia Tech 17 58.4, 90 East Carolina 10 30.5
72% 55 Tulsa 31 48.5, 159 Tulane 3 24.6
70% 114 Idaho 44 28.6, 170 North Dakota 14 12.0
70% 7 Texas Christian 35 40.0, 54 Air Force 19 21.5
69% 78 Utah State 54 44.0, 138 Weber State 17 27.5
68% 76 Kentucky 27 29.4, 116 Central Michigan 13 16.2
68% 47 San Diego State 23 38.5, 89 Army 20 27.2
67% 186 Jackson State 35 29.2, 212 Tennessee State 29 20.9
67% 132 Northeast Louisiana 35 29.1, 172 Grambling 7 14.5
66% 86 Washington State 59 40.8, 127 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 27.6
66% 42 Central Florida 30 22.8, 64 Boston College 3 11.4
65% 224 Bucknell 28 25.0, 229 Marist 14 20.4
65% 8 Auburn 41 41.5, 22 Mississippi State 34 26.1
64% 131 Western Illinois 35 36.1, 178 Jacksonville 21 19.5
64% 69 Virginia 34 37.5, 123 Indiana 31 25.9
64% 3 Oregon 69 48.1, 11 Nevada - Reno 20 33.5
63% 128 Furman 16 27.6, 173 The Citadel 6 17.8
62% 110 Tennessee - Chattanoog 38 38.3, 142 Jacksonville State 17 29.1
62% 79 Mississippi 42 35.8, 108 Southern Illinois 24 25.4
61% 154 Buffalo 35 28.4, 163 Stony Brook 7 23.1
58% 169 Old Dominion 40 34.3, 202 Georgia State 17 27.6
58% 48 Tennessee 45 35.8, 57 Cincinnati 23 28.4
58% 24 Southern California 17 27.0, 25 Utah 14 23.0
17-14 was reported box score for USC-Utah. Actual score was 23-14.
58% 15 Oklahoma State 37 38.0, 20 Arizona 14 30.8
57% 201 Eastern Michigan 14 28.8, 206 Alabama State 7 24.5
57% 147 Eastern Kentucky 28 27.3, 148 Missouri State 24 23.5
56% 56 Texas 17 17.6, 51 Brigham Young 16 15.1
55% 94 New Hampshire 48 26.3, 125 Lehigh 41 22.6
55% 27 Arizona State 37 24.6, 21 Missouri 30 22.9
50% 50 Washington 40 29.3, 40 Hawaii 32 29.4
49% 220 Georgetown 14 24.8, 213 Lafayette 13 25.5
49% 52 Michigan 35 29.3, 37 Notre Dame 31 29.8
48% 19 South Carolina 45 26.9, 23 Georgia 42 27.6
47% 215 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 27 30.1, 204 Alcorn State 20 31.3
43% 187 Holy Cross 37 23.8, 165 Colgate 7 26.8
43% 130 Rice 24 27.6, 104 Purdue 22 30.9
42% 237 Southern 21 25.8, 228 Alabama A&M 6 29.5
42% 210 Hampton 23 15.8, 190 Florida A&M 17 19.0
38% 91 Vanderbilt 24 18.4, 58 Connecticut 21 25.8
36% 166 South Carolina State 26 22.3, 129 Bethune - Cookman 18 34.2
35% 109 Marshall 26 25.1, 70 Southern Mississippi 20 33.1
34% 144 Louisiana - Lafayette 20 24.6, 103 Kent State 12 36.3
34% 81 Florida International 24 17.7, 63 Louisville 17 26.5
31% 133 Southern Utah 35 25.4, 72 Sacramento State 14 38.4
30% 181 Towson 31 14.9, 74 Villanova 10 39.4
27% 111 Northern Iowa 34 23.2, 92 Stephen F. Austin 23 31.5
26% 214 Duquesne 22 24.1, 176 Dayton 13 38.8
26% 156 South Dakota 30 22.1, 83 Eastern Washington 17 35.0
26% 113 Kansas 45 22.4, 41 Northern Illinois 42 41.0
25% 217 Prairie View 37 13.2, 175 Texas Southern 34 27.9
24% 96 Wake Forest 34 23.6, 31 North Carolina State 27 40.8
21% 73 Iowa State 44 17.1, 35 Iowa 41 27.5
15% 174 New Mexico State 28 14.9, 77 Minnesota 21 43.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
18 0.90 24 1.08 26 0.97 30 1.15 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 98 74 70.6 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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