prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 111 Purdue 59 31.4, 173 Southeast Missouri Sta 0 11.8
91% 64 Cincinnati 59 49.5, 189 Akron 14 13.2
90% 14 Arkansas 38 50.0, 90 Troy State 28 19.4
90% 5 Alabama 41 53.1, 154 North Texas 0 0.0
89% 163 Old Dominion 45 34.3, 207 Hampton 42 16.8
89% 50 Texas Tech 59 47.7, 179 New Mexico 13 15.0
89% 15 Florida 33 34.4, 37 Tennessee 23 21.3
89% 13 Texas A&M 37 45.0, 97 Idaho 7 11.8
88% 210 Alcorn State 39 41.5, 244 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 10.5
88% 9 Texas Christian 38 50.6, 128 Northeast Louisiana 17 6.5
88% 2 Stanford 37 36.8, 22 Arizona 10 18.9
87% 67 Kansas State 37 29.2, 123 Kent State 0 11.7
87% 11 Virginia Tech 26 43.3, 86 Arkansas State 7 10.0
87% 1 Oregon 56 68.5, 150 Missouri State 7 7.6
86% 152 Jacksonville State 37 40.7, 219 Georgia State 21 16.6
86% 82 Wake Forest 48 45.2, 213 Gardner - Webb 5 7.8
86% 42 South Florida 70 46.1, 201 Florida A&M 17 0.0
86% 27 California 63 59.3, 214 Presbyterian 12 3.7
85% 200 Duquesne 49 59.3, 245 Valparaiso 14 8.4
85% 124 Lehigh 34 47.7, 227 Princeton 22 16.7
84% 194 Dayton 24 33.5, 229 Marist 10 12.9
84% 144 Elon 23 42.4, 236 North Carolina Central 22 10.1
84% 112 Richmond 34 30.7, 220 Virginia Military 19 0.0
84% 51 Georgia Tech 66 43.0, 91 Kansas 24 26.7
84% 46 Michigan 31 59.6, 203 Eastern Michigan 3 13.3
84% 25 Southern California 38 32.3, 66 Syracuse 17 14.1
84% 21 Missouri 69 37.9, 125 Western Illinois 0 4.7
84% 16 Nebraska 51 35.6, 45 Washington 38 20.7
83% 99 Appalachian State 41 66.3, 243 Savannah State 6 5.2
83% 84 Southern Mississippi 52 46.9, 187 Southeast Louisiana 6 17.3
83% 80 Southern Methodist 40 39.1, 180 Northwestern State 7 10.3
82% 197 Memphis 27 44.0, 228 Austin Peay 6 23.9
82% 26 Georgia 59 49.4, 139 Coastal Carolina 0 14.8
81% 23 Baylor 48 57.8, 116 Stephen F. Austin 0 27.0
81% 8 Wisconsin 49 47.2, 48 Northern Illinois 7 27.8
80% 145 Murray State 58 38.8, 211 Tennessee State 27 15.7
80% 141 Louisiana - Lafayette 38 40.2, 196 Nicholls State 21 21.6
80% 68 Delaware 45 49.2, 221 Delaware State 0 4.3
80% 34 Nevada - Reno 17 47.0, 136 San Jose State 14 21.6
79% 190 Bryant 26 31.1, 235 Sacred Heart 6 13.6
79% 184 Yale 37 29.0, 222 Georgetown 27 14.3
79% 72 Fresno State 27 42.3, 176 North Dakota 22 11.6
79% 10 Oklahoma State 59 45.7, 54 Tulsa 33 29.9
78% 3 Boise State 40 44.4, 57 Toledo 15 20.6
75% 205 Norfolk State 23 39.5, 242 Howard 9 16.3
75% 114 Massachusetts 36 28.4, 132 Rhode Island 27 21.4
75% 19 South Carolina 24 37.4, 29 Navy 21 28.9
74% 85 Ohio 44 29.7, 107 Marshall 7 21.9
73% 134 Maine 31 37.2, 204 Albany 15 20.7
73% 127 Texas - El Paso 16 30.8, 164 New Mexico State 10 24.6
73% 36 North Carolina 28 36.4, 60 Virginia 17 25.4
72% 69 Colorado 28 32.1, 143 Colorado State 14 15.5
71% 188 Jackson State 28 41.8, 232 Southern 24 24.7
69% 174 Jacksonville 37 50.7, 225 Charleston Southern 30 29.4
68% 138 Youngstown State 34 45.4, 177 Illinois State 27 30.4
68% 87 Western Michigan 44 27.8, 120 Central Michigan 14 17.3
68% 40 Iowa 31 29.4, 47 Pittsburgh 27 23.5
66% 166 California - Davis 31 30.5, 209 San Diego 3 13.0
66% 130 Indiana 38 28.2, 156 South Carolina State 21 19.9
66% 110 Southern Utah 45 52.1, 241 Texas - San Antonio 22 0.0
65% 170 Central Connecticut 28 32.6, 206 Wagner 24 25.0
63% 43 San Diego State 42 41.1, 59 Washington State 24 32.3
61% 31 Utah 54 19.6, 56 Brigham Young 10 16.3
61% 4 Oklahoma 23 34.7, 17 Florida State 13 27.0
59% 178 Dartmouth 37 28.9, 182 Colgate 20 25.4
58% 237 Saint Francis - Pennsy 50 33.7, 238 Morehead State 49 30.1
58% 193 Fordham 21 23.3, 195 Columbia 14 19.9
58% 167 Tennessee Tech 31 26.4, 186 Eastern Illinois 20 22.9
58% 62 Houston 35 41.1, 92 Louisiana Tech 34 35.0
58% 20 Illinois 17 35.6, 24 Arizona State 14 31.1
58% 7 Louisiana State 19 31.0, 18 Mississippi State 6 25.6
56% 105 Tennessee - Chattanoog 23 26.6, 135 Eastern Kentucky 14 23.9
56% 53 Texas 49 21.7, 65 California - Los Angel 20 19.6
55% 149 Ball State 28 21.6, 137 Buffalo 25 20.3
55% 126 Sam Houston State 31 27.4, 122 Central Arkansas 10 25.0
55% 38 Notre Dame 31 22.4, 33 Michigan State 13 20.7
54% 119 Montana 17 27.9, 104 Eastern Washington 14 27.0
52% 81 Vanderbilt 30 30.3, 75 Mississippi 7 29.5
49% 165 Brown 21 27.3, 171 Stony Brook 20 27.8
49% 155 California Poly 48 26.1, 140 South Dakota State 14 26.3
46% 230 Cornell 24 21.8, 226 Bucknell 13 22.4
45% 108 Wyoming 28 30.3, 115 Bowling Green 27 31.9
44% 215 Idaho State 50 30.3, 192 Northern Colorado 20 33.6
44% 168 Holy Cross 30 20.9, 151 Harvard 22 23.0
44% 109 James Madison 27 22.1, 117 Liberty 24 23.9
44% 88 Army 21 27.2, 74 Northwestern 14 29.0
44% 71 Louisville 24 16.2, 76 Kentucky 17 18.2
44% 61 Iowa State 24 27.0, 63 Connecticut 20 29.5
43% 216 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 36 25.0, 217 Prairie View 29 28.0
43% 102 Minnesota 29 20.6, 78 Miami - Ohio 23 23.2
43% 55 Penn State 14 19.6, 49 Temple 10 23.3
42% 212 Alabama State 31 15.5, 185 Grambling 17 19.4
41% 30 West Virginia 37 24.0, 28 Maryland 31 28.2
39% 169 Indiana State 44 26.0, 153 Western Kentucky 16 34.8
38% 157 Tulane 49 22.1, 133 Alabama - Birmingham 10 30.8
32% 35 Miami - Florida 24 18.0, 12 Ohio State 6 23.9
31% 41 Clemson 38 26.7, 6 Auburn 24 42.0
28% 181 Portland State 31 22.5, 106 Northern Arizona 29 39.4
27% 158 Weber State 49 27.4, 94 Sacramento State 17 37.7
25% 198 Monmouth 20 10.6, 113 Villanova 9 36.6
23% 231 Morgan State 13 13.6, 183 Robert Morris 12 30.8
16% 95 Duke 20 18.3, 70 Boston College 19 28.5
16% 77 Florida International 17 21.0, 32 Central Florida 10 32.4
12% 218 Lafayette 37 8.6, 121 Pennsylvania 12 39.2
12% 161 Nevada - Las Vegas 40 18.9, 44 Hawaii 20 47.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
29 0.86 15 1.12 20 1.06 37 1.05 4 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 105 78 76.2 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net