prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 79 Ohio 17 32.8, 146 Kent State 10 13.6
90% 60 Southern Mississippi 48 37.4, 104 Rice 24 21.7
89% 1 Stanford 45 52.7, 78 California - Los Angel 19 8.6
88% 110 Montana 55 48.5, 219 Northern Colorado 28 13.2
88% 81 Northern Iowa 42 36.5, 152 Missouri State 7 22.5
88% 17 Georgia 24 34.4, 35 Mississippi State 10 24.0
88% 3 Boise State 30 46.8, 47 Nevada - Reno 10 16.7
87% 204 Drake 31 32.8, 241 Campbell 14 8.9
87% 38 Texas Tech 45 46.5, 105 Kansas 34 28.2
87% 18 Arizona State 35 36.4, 73 Oregon State 20 13.2
87% 4 Louisiana State 35 47.0, 95 Kentucky 7 3.4
86% 86 North Dakota State 20 39.1, 172 Illinois State 10 13.8
86% 32 Michigan 58 44.0, 108 Minnesota 0 16.9
85% 155 Samford 41 30.4, 216 Gardner - Webb 14 6.5
85% 113 Lehigh 37 42.5, 177 Yale 7 21.4
85% 50 Tulsa 41 43.8, 145 North Texas 24 16.3
85% 26 Illinois 38 36.3, 87 Northwestern 35 14.9
85% 5 Oklahoma 62 51.4, 106 Ball State 6 6.0
84% 131 Middle Tennessee State 38 38.5, 198 Memphis 31 16.9
84% 67 Arkansas State 26 37.9, 178 Western Kentucky 22 13.0
83% 218 San Diego 42 33.0, 242 Davidson 0 14.5
83% 85 Montana State 31 35.2, 111 Sacramento State 21 24.2
83% 82 Troy State 24 47.1, 174 Alabama - Birmingham 23 19.3
83% 54 Houston 49 42.3, 122 Texas - El Paso 42 26.5
83% 36 West Virginia 55 44.0, 97 Bowling Green 10 21.3
83% 28 Tennessee 41 40.7, 137 Buffalo 10 6.2
82% 48 Cincinnati 27 34.8, 100 Miami - Ohio 0 21.6
81% 195 Albany 41 44.0, 239 Saint Francis - Pennsy 20 24.6
81% 43 Miami - Florida 45 45.5, 141 Bethune - Cookman 14 13.5
80% 84 Georgia Southern 41 38.2, 156 Elon 14 23.5
79% 202 Florida A&M 34 41.8, 234 Delaware State 7 21.9
79% 6 Wisconsin 48 40.6, 12 Nebraska 17 28.3
78% 46 Penn State 16 32.3, 114 Indiana 10 13.9
77% 175 Jacksonville 21 42.0, 233 Marist 9 22.1
77% 70 Virginia 21 34.5, 109 Idaho 20 21.6
77% 31 Georgia Tech 45 37.0, 66 North Carolina State 35 26.1
76% 230 Southern 28 34.5, 245 Mississippi Valley Sta 21 22.7
76% 192 Alabama State 31 22.3, 214 Alcorn State 23 11.6
74% 58 Maryland 28 42.4, 142 Towson 3 17.1
72% 235 Morehead State 38 58.1, 246 Valparaiso 14 34.5
72% 151 Harvard 31 27.3, 189 Lafayette 3 18.0
72% 94 New Hampshire 39 40.9, 163 Holy Cross 32 19.9
71% 180 Texas State - San Marc 38 33.8, 213 Nicholls State 12 21.9
70% 34 Texas 37 28.7, 53 Iowa State 14 24.8
69% 129 Indiana State 38 34.5, 168 South Dakota State 28 29.0
69% 119 Louisiana - Lafayette 37 32.3, 139 Florida Atlantic 34 25.3
69% 112 Army 45 32.9, 135 Tulane 6 25.3
67% 130 Sam Houston State 22 57.2, 240 Texas - San Antonio 7 13.0
67% 123 Furman 47 39.1, 185 Western Carolina 21 25.1
67% 42 North Carolina 35 42.1, 91 East Carolina 20 30.0
67% 23 Notre Dame 38 28.2, 83 Purdue 10 13.3
64% 158 Portland State 42 38.0, 196 Idaho State 35 29.4
64% 27 Southern California 48 28.2, 29 Arizona 41 23.8
62% 62 Brigham Young 27 33.0, 71 Utah State 24 27.2
61% 199 Jackson State 58 27.6, 206 Texas Southern 13 22.0
61% 59 Hawaii 44 36.5, 92 Louisiana Tech 26 30.9
60% 115 Eastern Washington 27 33.3, 116 Weber State 21 29.6
59% 162 New Mexico State 42 32.7, 182 New Mexico 28 28.3
58% 103 James Madison 31 22.4, 107 Richmond 7 18.0
58% 101 Wofford 28 34.1, 102 Appalachian State 14 30.5
57% 161 Central Arkansas 38 30.8, 157 Stephen F. Austin 28 27.9
57% 144 McNeese State 20 27.5, 170 Northwestern State 18 24.3
57% 55 Washington State 31 36.8, 76 Colorado 27 32.9
56% 184 Eastern Michigan 31 31.0, 183 Akron 23 28.8
56% 7 Alabama 38 28.3, 11 Florida 10 25.5
55% 194 Duquesne 31 26.7, 186 Bryant 28 25.4
49% 201 Colgate 38 25.9, 187 Fordham 14 26.0
45% 193 Pennsylvania 22 26.9, 197 Dartmouth 20 29.1
45% 20 Arkansas 42 27.4, 15 Texas A&M 38 28.8
44% 244 Howard 34 29.5, 243 Savannah State 14 31.8
44% 171 Brown 35 19.2, 147 Rhode Island 21 22.6
44% 148 Tennessee Tech 34 26.5, 153 Tennessee - Martin 31 28.7
43% 222 Austin Peay 37 28.1, 208 Tennessee State 34 31.8
43% 160 Old Dominion 48 32.9, 126 Massachusetts 33 37.0
43% 150 Jacksonville State 38 33.1, 149 Murray State 30 36.3
43% 118 San Jose State 38 19.4, 124 Colorado State 31 21.8
42% 51 Kansas State 36 33.1, 25 Baylor 35 38.8
41% 167 Western Illinois 27 21.5, 140 Southern Illinois 21 24.6
39% 136 William & Mary 20 16.7, 133 Villanova 16 20.7
39% 88 Duke 31 27.9, 80 Florida International 27 33.3
39% 22 Auburn 16 30.6, 16 South Carolina 13 36.1
36% 227 Alabama A&M 28 20.2, 209 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 27 25.4
35% 221 Prairie View 31 25.3, 211 Grambling 23 30.9
33% 225 Cornell 31 20.5, 207 Wagner 7 26.5
33% 224 Bucknell 35 22.0, 205 Georgetown 18 26.5
32% 212 Southeast Missouri Sta 37 26.8, 181 Eastern Illinois 30 32.2
32% 56 Pittsburgh 44 28.5, 30 South Florida 17 33.8
31% 127 Maine 31 16.6, 74 Delaware 17 26.3
31% 98 Mississippi 38 28.1, 69 Fresno State 28 38.9
30% 237 Princeton 24 22.3, 223 Columbia 21 29.5
30% 191 Norfolk State 17 11.7, 138 South Carolina State 14 23.4
30% 90 Wake Forest 27 22.7, 72 Boston College 19 29.4
24% 132 Central Michigan 48 22.7, 61 Northern Illinois 41 37.1
24% 75 Western Michigan 38 19.8, 63 Connecticut 31 25.9
24% 40 Michigan State 10 16.9, 24 Ohio State 7 24.1
23% 166 The Citadel 28 5.4, 96 Tennessee - Chattanoog 27 24.7
23% 52 Air Force 35 26.9, 33 Navy 34 37.6
21% 226 Butler 29 17.0, 200 Dayton 27 32.0
21% 176 North Dakota 26 14.9, 99 Southern Utah 20 36.7
17% 238 North Carolina A&T 24 20.7, 228 Morgan State 3 31.3
17% 203 Robert Morris 23 10.4, 169 Monmouth 20 25.1
17% 89 Rutgers 19 21.5, 64 Syracuse 16 29.7
16% 57 Toledo 36 22.5, 41 Temple 13 31.8
15% 232 Lamar 48 15.8, 190 Southeast Louisiana 38 36.6
15% 65 Southern Methodist 40 15.3, 9 Texas Christian 33 43.3
14% 117 Marshall 17 9.9, 77 Louisville 13 24.5
13% 231 Sacred Heart 37 9.9, 179 Central Connecticut 24 33.4
13% 21 Clemson 23 20.6, 10 Virginia Tech 3 30.8
11% 44 Washington 31 23.9, 14 Utah 14 37.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
22 0.80 25 0.73 23 0.86 38 0.87 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109 66 79.6 0.83
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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