prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 53 Central Florida 16 29.0, 102 Marshall 6 9.2
90% 200 Robert Morris 45 38.2, 241 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 12.3
89% 226 Alabama A&M 37 33.6, 243 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 11.0
89% 19 South Carolina 54 38.1, 98 Kentucky 3 9.8
89% 1 Stanford 48 51.8, 77 Colorado 7 8.7
88% 69 Northern Illinois 40 37.0, 134 Kent State 10 17.5
88% 8 Oklahoma State 70 61.0, 101 Kansas 28 20.2
87% 7 Alabama 34 39.4, 64 Vanderbilt 0 4.5
87% 2 Oregon 43 51.1, 39 California 15 20.6
86% 208 San Diego 55 50.8, 246 Valparaiso 14 10.9
86% 180 Norfolk State 38 35.4, 239 Delaware State 21 11.5
86% 10 Clemson 36 34.3, 81 Boston College 14 7.3
85% 167 Coastal Carolina 34 34.7, 227 Virginia Military 10 10.4
85% 145 South Carolina State 49 40.4, 238 North Carolina Central 38 1.9
84% 237 Morgan State 44 33.7, 245 Savannah State 17 16.3
84% 152 Tennessee - Martin 61 40.4, 220 Austin Peay 23 15.9
84% 70 Georgia Southern 28 34.3, 103 Tennessee - Chattanoog 27 20.8
84% 52 Temple 42 32.8, 115 Ball State 0 16.8
84% 49 Toledo 54 50.6, 179 Eastern Michigan 16 11.5
84% 35 Mississippi State 21 41.1, 171 Alabama - Birmingham 3 6.2
84% 25 West Virginia 43 37.8, 75 Connecticut 16 16.6
84% 3 Boise State 57 49.1, 82 Fresno State 7 15.8
83% 117 Rice 28 42.2, 194 Memphis 6 19.4
83% 65 Northern Iowa 23 43.2, 119 Indiana State 9 26.0
83% 47 Nevada - Reno 37 46.0, 142 Nevada - Las Vegas 0 16.1
82% 122 Harvard 41 31.4, 214 Cornell 31 8.6
82% 112 Montana 33 38.1, 195 Idaho State 0 20.4
82% 83 Florida International 27 41.2, 191 Akron 17 16.7
82% 61 Brigham Young 29 33.0, 111 San Jose State 16 15.4
82% 20 Notre Dame 59 33.4, 51 Air Force 33 19.7
82% 4 Louisiana State 41 36.8, 11 Florida 11 18.2
81% 183 Hampton 28 41.3, 233 Princeton 23 17.3
81% 157 Murray State 48 38.9, 217 Georgia State 24 23.0
81% 125 Liberty 35 38.4, 221 Gardner - Webb 3 14.6
81% 116 Sacramento State 14 47.0, 218 Northern Colorado 0 21.1
81% 106 Lehigh 30 39.3, 212 Bucknell 6 14.0
81% 91 Purdue 45 31.8, 128 Minnesota 17 19.1
81% 76 Arkansas State 24 32.2, 127 Northeast Louisiana 19 23.1
81% 22 Virginia Tech 38 25.4, 42 Miami - Florida 35 15.1
81% 6 Oklahoma 55 35.4, 26 Texas 17 18.0
80% 196 Drake 41 37.5, 236 Morehead State 26 20.0
80% 93 Delaware 21 24.3, 132 William & Mary 0 11.3
80% 84 Montana State 38 42.0, 168 Portland State 36 25.8
80% 37 North Carolina 14 27.6, 89 Louisville 7 6.8
80% 31 Illinois 41 40.5, 114 Indiana 20 17.6
79% 140 Massachusetts 42 41.2, 202 Central Connecticut 26 20.2
79% 28 Georgia Tech 21 41.8, 59 Maryland 16 27.5
78% 72 North Carolina State 38 35.2, 120 Central Michigan 24 20.0
78% 68 Syracuse 37 32.3, 154 Tulane 34 15.7
78% 13 Michigan 42 39.5, 74 Northwestern 24 21.8
78% 12 Nebraska 34 27.0, 30 Ohio State 27 17.5
77% 166 Central Arkansas 37 35.8, 216 Nicholls State 31 21.5
77% 97 New Hampshire 47 40.8, 155 Villanova 17 24.1
77% 66 Western Michigan 45 40.3, 108 Bowling Green 21 24.9
76% 178 Jackson State 48 40.6, 210 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 10 25.0
76% 176 Stony Brook 42 46.6, 219 Presbyterian 24 28.4
75% 34 Baylor 49 43.6, 62 Iowa State 26 29.9
74% 90 Wofford 43 25.4, 156 The Citadel 14 13.5
73% 174 Jacksonville 34 37.1, 205 Dayton 26 23.4
71% 170 Northwestern State 37 29.9, 209 Lamar 17 17.2
70% 235 Marist 13 26.1, 244 Davidson 9 14.9
69% 184 Alabama State 43 25.0, 228 Texas Southern 29 13.9
67% 159 Eastern Kentucky 48 23.9, 186 Eastern Illinois 16 17.7
67% 136 North Texas 31 25.9, 143 Florida Atlantic 17 21.8
67% 55 Houston 56 54.3, 94 East Carolina 3 38.7
66% 92 North Dakota State 9 26.4, 137 Southern Illinois 3 18.7
65% 190 Pennsylvania 35 27.6, 206 Fordham 20 18.8
65% 79 Utah State 63 36.3, 88 Wyoming 19 31.2
64% 188 Albany 38 33.5, 193 Duquesne 10 28.9
61% 185 Yale 30 26.3, 187 Dartmouth 0 22.8
61% 161 Elon 38 37.8, 198 Western Carolina 31 29.7
61% 153 Brown 20 23.1, 151 Holy Cross 13 19.8
61% 16 Texas Christian 27 34.6, 40 San Diego State 14 29.4
59% 48 Penn State 13 21.3, 43 Iowa 3 18.9
58% 139 Sam Houston State 45 27.7, 165 Stephen F. Austin 10 22.8
57% 207 Tennessee State 55 34.8, 204 Southeast Missouri Sta 3 31.9
57% 21 Arkansas 38 35.3, 18 Auburn 14 32.2
57% 15 Texas A&M 45 36.1, 41 Texas Tech 40 31.6
56% 197 South Alabama 30 35.7, 234 Texas - San Antonio 27 21.6
56% 14 Georgia 20 32.2, 29 Tennessee 12 30.2
53% 211 Georgetown 24 28.9, 225 Wagner 10 28.2
52% 121 South Dakota 24 29.5, 109 Southern Utah 19 28.4
51% 223 Prairie View 23 31.2, 230 Southern 20 30.9
51% 99 Louisiana Tech 24 29.8, 104 Idaho 11 29.6
49% 147 Towson 31 23.9, 130 Richmond 28 24.1
49% 107 Eastern Washington 36 18.6, 126 Northern Arizona 28 19.0
48% 150 Old Dominion 31 32.1, 158 Rhode Island 23 32.8
46% 224 Sacred Heart 34 20.1, 229 Columbia 25 21.4
45% 17 Arizona State 35 25.9, 24 Utah 14 27.0
44% 113 Miami - Ohio 35 19.2, 95 Army 28 20.9
44% 63 California - Los Angel 28 33.0, 54 Washington State 25 34.9
43% 118 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 37.8, 87 Troy State 17 43.1
39% 172 Illinois State 38 26.5, 164 Missouri State 13 32.9
35% 189 Colgate 26 23.4, 181 Monmouth 14 29.7
30% 71 Oregon State 37 20.4, 36 Arizona 27 30.4
27% 240 Campbell 38 23.1, 215 Butler 23 35.2
27% 78 Rutgers 34 22.4, 38 Pittsburgh 10 33.9
27% 60 Southern Mississippi 63 25.2, 44 Navy 35 35.6
27% 50 Kansas State 24 23.4, 9 Missouri 17 32.8
26% 80 Wake Forest 35 23.0, 23 Florida State 30 39.4
25% 100 Maine 25 18.1, 96 James Madison 24 23.2
24% 175 Texas State - San Marc 21 22.8, 146 McNeese State 14 34.5
20% 173 South Dakota State 35 24.4, 149 Youngstown State 28 34.4
19% 232 North Carolina A&T 22 17.3, 138 Bethune - Cookman 3 45.5
18% 148 Samford 26 21.2, 110 Furman 21 31.7
16% 242 Howard 29 14.0, 201 Florida A&M 28 39.0
13% 133 Buffalo 38 17.5, 73 Ohio 37 29.1
11% 177 Western Kentucky 36 21.3, 135 Middle Tennessee State 33 35.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
19 1.06 15 1.24 25 0.95 48 1.04 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 84 80.2 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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