prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 44 Cincinnati 25 31.6, 83 Louisville 16 13.2
90% 42 Temple 34 34.4, 127 Buffalo 0 6.4
89% 128 Harvard 42 35.6, 208 Bucknell 3 8.7
89% 92 North Dakota State 51 35.3, 178 Missouri State 21 11.9
89% 12 Missouri 52 39.8, 73 Iowa State 17 16.2
88% 139 Eastern Kentucky 41 41.0, 223 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 10.2
88% 49 Iowa 41 36.0, 81 Northwestern 31 20.1
87% 229 Butler 42 52.9, 246 Valparaiso 14 14.2
87% 146 Brown 34 39.5, 233 Princeton 0 8.0
87% 116 Weber State 39 44.4, 203 Idaho State 12 18.5
87% 111 Sam Houston State 47 39.3, 210 Nicholls State 7 9.4
87% 105 Eastern Washington 48 45.6, 212 Northern Colorado 27 12.7
87% 96 Maine 27 35.3, 168 Rhode Island 21 17.3
87% 53 Tulsa 37 45.9, 174 Alabama - Birmingham 20 11.7
87% 30 Washington 52 40.4, 78 Colorado 24 22.3
87% 6 Oklahoma 47 58.9, 103 Kansas 17 18.1
87% 5 Wisconsin 59 59.4, 113 Indiana 7 8.2
86% 213 North Carolina A&T 42 36.0, 241 Delaware State 24 16.6
86% 161 Jackson State 17 48.7, 243 Mississippi Valley Sta 16 10.4
86% 48 Nevada - Reno 49 53.8, 190 New Mexico 7 10.5
85% 219 Sacred Heart 60 41.8, 242 Saint Francis - Pennsy 45 20.9
85% 176 Texas State - San Marc 46 37.3, 218 Lamar 21 18.5
85% 165 Northwestern State 51 39.2, 202 Southeast Louisiana 17 22.2
85% 1 Boise State 63 49.5, 126 Colorado State 13 1.6
84% 207 Dayton 28 35.1, 244 Davidson 0 5.8
84% 107 Tennessee - Chattanoog 51 45.6, 193 Western Carolina 7 20.0
84% 87 Montana State 41 32.0, 136 Northern Arizona 24 16.8
84% 67 Georgia Southern 50 38.5, 119 Furman 20 20.2
84% 11 Clemson 56 31.6, 56 Maryland 45 19.4
84% 9 Georgia 33 31.5, 66 Vanderbilt 28 14.1
84% 7 Alabama 52 44.9, 89 Mississippi 7 10.2
83% 181 Alabama State 20 38.4, 225 Prairie View 7 17.5
83% 144 Murray State 36 44.1, 197 Eastern Illinois 27 25.1
83% 102 Lehigh 34 39.3, 209 Fordham 12 14.2
83% 98 James Madison 34 25.9, 163 Villanova 10 9.9
83% 2 Stanford 44 50.5, 60 Washington State 14 20.6
82% 172 Jacksonville 50 56.3, 239 Morehead State 14 25.2
82% 104 Montana 30 43.6, 162 Portland State 24 27.9
82% 101 Wyoming 41 35.0, 147 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 22.2
82% 79 Northern Iowa 31 29.6, 169 South Dakota State 14 11.7
82% 4 Louisiana State 38 37.4, 29 Tennessee 7 18.2
81% 214 Florida A&M 47 42.5, 245 Savannah State 7 19.6
81% 179 Albany 28 30.1, 195 Robert Morris 17 19.9
81% 159 South Carolina State 23 34.5, 211 Georgia State 13 13.5
81% 141 Jacksonville State 44 41.9, 216 Austin Peay 14 21.4
81% 130 Samford 43 31.5, 158 Elon 31 21.7
81% 43 Penn State 23 26.3, 84 Purdue 18 7.1
80% 3 Oregon 41 47.8, 10 Arizona State 27 28.4
79% 27 Florida State 41 37.8, 91 Duke 16 21.5
78% 186 Colgate 35 33.8, 206 Cornell 28 22.2
78% 39 Toledo 28 45.5, 117 Bowling Green 21 24.5
77% 149 Holy Cross 25 28.9, 198 Dartmouth 17 11.2
76% 100 Appalachian State 49 25.9, 167 The Citadel 42 16.3
76% 95 Marshall 24 28.0, 114 Rice 20 19.3
76% 20 Virginia Tech 38 36.4, 72 Wake Forest 17 22.1
75% 187 Pennsylvania 27 33.2, 230 Columbia 20 19.9
75% 182 Norfolk State 34 29.0, 192 Hampton 24 20.0
75% 112 East Carolina 35 39.9, 191 Memphis 17 22.1
75% 8 Oklahoma State 38 41.2, 35 Texas 26 28.9
74% 125 Indiana State 46 38.3, 166 Western Illinois 24 27.4
73% 120 Liberty 63 34.2, 155 Coastal Carolina 27 23.3
73% 15 South Carolina 14 28.2, 47 Mississippi State 12 21.5
72% 97 Louisiana - Lafayette 30 36.0, 132 North Texas 10 26.5
71% 226 Virginia Military 21 33.7, 235 Charleston Southern 17 25.6
70% 222 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 22 31.9, 234 Southern 21 24.6
68% 205 Georgetown 21 32.7, 240 Howard 3 20.8
68% 160 California - Davis 38 43.1, 231 Texas - San Antonio 17 14.2
63% 17 Texas A&M 55 42.9, 26 Baylor 28 34.6
62% 201 Duquesne 28 29.5, 200 Central Connecticut 21 25.9
61% 215 Presbyterian 28 33.1, 220 Gardner - Webb 14 29.0
61% 152 Central Arkansas 21 32.9, 164 McNeese State 18 28.2
59% 55 Southern Methodist 38 22.3, 58 Central Florida 17 18.9
58% 227 Alabama A&M 24 25.9, 224 Texas Southern 21 22.5
57% 124 Texas - El Paso 44 33.9, 151 Tulane 7 30.5
57% 62 Rutgers 21 32.5, 61 Navy 20 29.7
57% 31 Utah 26 24.0, 52 Pittsburgh 14 21.6
56% 204 San Diego 31 22.5, 199 Drake 24 19.9
56% 121 California Poly 31 35.5, 118 Southern Utah 27 32.5
56% 110 Miami - Ohio 9 17.3, 138 Kent State 3 14.9
56% 70 Northern Illinois 51 34.6, 65 Western Michigan 22 32.4
56% 23 Auburn 17 29.9, 21 Florida 6 27.9
52% 45 San Diego State 41 32.2, 54 Air Force 27 31.7
43% 134 Towson 39 31.5, 137 Old Dominion 35 33.9
43% 90 Fresno State 31 37.3, 59 Utah State 21 43.0
43% 34 Southern California 30 27.0, 40 California 9 29.1
42% 237 Morgan State 52 24.2, 232 North Carolina Central 3 28.6
42% 236 Campbell 35 22.9, 238 Marist 21 26.5
42% 153 Illinois State 28 22.6, 109 South Dakota 3 28.6
42% 41 Miami - Florida 30 25.3, 36 North Carolina 24 28.6
41% 157 New Mexico State 31 20.6, 115 Idaho 24 26.0
41% 38 Kansas State 41 30.8, 37 Texas Tech 34 34.7
38% 150 Youngstown State 35 27.3, 148 Southern Illinois 23 31.2
35% 196 South Alabama 33 20.2, 133 Tennessee - Martin 30 35.3
35% 32 Michigan State 28 22.4, 13 Michigan 14 26.2
33% 194 Lafayette 28 18.4, 175 Yale 19 23.1
33% 25 Ohio State 17 20.2, 24 Illinois 7 23.6
32% 69 Brigham Young 38 19.7, 64 Oregon State 28 25.1
31% 68 Virginia 24 30.1, 28 Georgia Tech 21 39.4
30% 143 William & Mary 24 26.5, 85 New Hampshire 10 36.7
29% 189 Monmouth 40 22.3, 184 Bryant 35 27.8
19% 188 Tennessee State 42 23.9, 145 Tennessee Tech 40 38.6
19% 108 San Jose State 28 24.7, 57 Hawaii 27 37.8
19% 80 Connecticut 16 23.1, 51 South Florida 10 30.7
18% 131 Northeast Louisiana 38 24.0, 94 Troy State 10 35.9
17% 173 Eastern Michigan 35 20.7, 123 Central Michigan 28 35.4
16% 183 Western Kentucky 20 19.5, 154 Florida Atlantic 0 29.6
12% 129 Ball State 23 22.2, 74 Ohio 20 39.5
11% 142 Massachusetts 21 17.5, 93 Delaware 10 32.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
20 0.96 14 0.66 18 1.26 55 1.01 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 82 81.4 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net