prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 91 Montana State 54 46.6, 207 Idaho State 13 11.3
89% 172 Jackson State 44 39.5, 225 Prairie View 14 20.1
89% 153 Tennessee - Martin 38 44.5, 224 Southeast Missouri Sta 30 17.2
89% 66 Arkansas State 37 35.0, 132 North Texas 14 15.8
89% 40 Texas 43 48.6, 119 Kansas 0 20.7
89% 26 Florida State 34 36.0, 64 North Carolina State 0 17.9
88% 135 Samford 52 46.7, 215 Western Carolina 24 18.2
88% 110 Harvard 41 38.7, 193 Dartmouth 10 14.6
88% 75 Wofford 48 42.7, 175 Elon 28 15.5
88% 54 Pittsburgh 35 27.6, 82 Connecticut 20 16.1
88% 10 Arizona State 48 44.9, 88 Colorado 14 13.7
87% 96 Sam Houston State 66 46.3, 217 Lamar 0 9.6
87% 87 Western Michigan 45 32.8, 118 Ball State 35 21.6
87% 21 Notre Dame 56 41.8, 73 Navy 14 20.8
87% 16 Michigan 36 38.0, 72 Purdue 14 14.8
86% 219 Morgan State 12 35.3, 243 Delaware State 0 21.0
86% 209 Dayton 49 49.2, 246 Valparaiso 10 9.5
86% 69 Central Florida 41 35.8, 187 Memphis 0 3.9
86% 36 Utah 27 28.9, 60 Oregon State 8 15.5
86% 3 Oregon 43 61.5, 74 Washington State 28 18.1
85% 166 South Carolina State 31 32.7, 232 Howard 0 12.3
85% 42 Mississippi State 28 31.2, 100 Kentucky 16 14.6
85% 29 Auburn 41 39.0, 85 Mississippi 23 17.1
85% 17 Virginia Tech 14 38.6, 93 Duke 10 14.8
85% 12 Texas Christian 38 38.3, 61 Brigham Young 28 19.3
84% 195 Hampton 22 49.5, 245 Savannah State 5 17.0
84% 170 Albany 24 38.3, 229 Wagner 0 20.5
84% 106 Lehigh 45 38.2, 192 Colgate 25 20.3
84% 98 Marshall 59 30.3, 159 Alabama - Birmingham 14 14.4
84% 92 East Carolina 34 44.8, 176 Tulane 13 22.5
84% 78 Louisiana Tech 38 30.8, 97 San Jose State 28 21.5
84% 49 Nevada - Reno 48 39.7, 139 New Mexico State 34 18.2
83% 218 Campbell 26 34.4, 244 Davidson 20 16.6
83% 213 Gardner - Webb 14 33.2, 236 Charleston Southern 7 20.5
83% 182 Yale 16 32.5, 237 Columbia 13 12.9
83% 156 The Citadel 41 32.3, 235 Virginia Military 14 1.7
83% 109 Liberty 27 52.2, 206 Presbyterian 20 21.6
83% 101 Maine 41 29.9, 178 Villanova 25 15.9
83% 90 Florida International 23 32.7, 120 Troy State 20 23.3
83% 23 Houston 73 57.8, 116 Rice 34 24.5
83% 1 Stanford 56 41.3, 18 Southern California 48 23.1
82% 167 Bethune - Cookman 34 48.6, 242 North Carolina Central 6 16.6
82% 107 Montana 45 35.2, 128 Weber State 10 27.0
82% 55 Air Force 42 54.4, 194 New Mexico 0 21.4
81% 163 North Dakota 27 32.4, 210 Northern Colorado 25 19.7
81% 19 Arkansas 31 34.3, 57 Vanderbilt 28 21.6
80% 144 Youngstown State 56 37.9, 174 Western Illinois 14 27.3
80% 108 Army 55 43.3, 211 Fordham 0 11.5
80% 67 Hawaii 16 36.0, 123 Idaho 14 25.2
79% 189 Norfolk State 14 26.1, 214 North Carolina A&T 10 11.7
79% 115 California Poly 27 32.1, 146 South Dakota 24 22.8
78% 148 Central Arkansas 55 50.8, 203 Southeast Louisiana 29 29.6
78% 141 Brown 6 30.7, 183 Pennsylvania 0 16.8
78% 104 Miami - Ohio 41 24.7, 134 Buffalo 13 16.0
78% 46 Southern Mississippi 31 37.3, 94 Texas - El Paso 13 22.7
77% 45 North Carolina 49 37.5, 63 Wake Forest 24 25.8
77% 7 Oklahoma State 59 57.0, 32 Baylor 24 35.1
75% 138 Central Michigan 23 33.7, 184 Akron 22 25.6
73% 8 Oklahoma 58 35.7, 24 Kansas State 17 25.3
72% 114 Southern Utah 34 33.5, 161 California - Davis 3 19.7
72% 20 Nebraska 24 27.6, 22 Michigan State 3 22.4
71% 105 New Hampshire 31 40.9, 147 Rhode Island 24 28.7
71% 13 Georgia 24 27.8, 25 Florida 20 23.7
70% 164 Stony Brook 42 35.3, 185 Coastal Carolina 0 27.6
68% 33 West Virginia 41 32.7, 59 Rutgers 31 25.8
67% 14 South Carolina 14 27.7, 39 Tennessee 3 23.0
66% 202 Drake 23 21.6, 234 Marist 13 13.1
63% 84 Northwestern 59 37.0, 124 Indiana 38 30.2
62% 204 Cornell 24 36.6, 233 Princeton 7 28.9
62% 197 Eastern Illinois 19 32.4, 216 Austin Peay 10 27.3
61% 76 North Dakota State 27 21.8, 77 Northern Iowa 19 18.0
60% 223 Southern 30 23.4, 227 Alcorn State 14 19.5
60% 154 Northwestern State 23 26.4, 180 Texas State - San Marc 10 22.3
60% 44 Penn State 10 19.6, 41 Illinois 7 16.2
58% 171 Stephen F. Austin 37 26.9, 173 McNeese State 17 23.4
57% 130 Illinois State 38 21.0, 157 Southern Illinois 30 18.7
56% 127 Massachusetts 28 29.3, 152 Richmond 7 28.0
55% 34 Washington 42 35.9, 31 Arizona 31 34.1
50% 121 Louisiana - Lafayette 45 38.2, 137 Middle Tennessee State 20 38.1
50% 56 Tulsa 38 29.0, 50 Southern Methodist 7 29.0
44% 131 Eastern Kentucky 34 29.3, 140 Murray State 33 30.2
43% 126 Old Dominion 23 26.3, 99 James Madison 20 27.8
43% 111 Delaware 35 22.4, 122 Towson 30 24.6
42% 228 Texas - San Antonio 17 23.5, 200 Georgia State 14 31.0
42% 222 Grambling 27 25.6, 226 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 20 27.8
42% 168 South Dakota State 43 27.4, 169 Missouri State 36 30.3
38% 165 Nevada - Las Vegas 38 24.1, 136 Colorado State 35 28.7
37% 95 Appalachian State 24 31.0, 65 Georgia Southern 17 36.2
34% 83 Louisville 27 15.1, 53 Syracuse 10 21.4
34% 48 Georgia Tech 31 30.8, 11 Clemson 17 40.5
33% 150 Kent State 27 18.2, 103 Bowling Green 15 24.7
32% 241 Mississippi Valley Sta 12 25.9, 231 Texas Southern 9 33.9
28% 158 Portland State 43 30.7, 117 Eastern Washington 26 42.7
27% 240 Saint Francis - Pennsy 27 30.1, 208 Central Connecticut 13 45.9
27% 221 Sacred Heart 27 15.5, 198 Robert Morris 15 27.9
26% 149 Northern Arizona 27 20.7, 133 Sacramento State 26 27.1
26% 71 California - Los Angel 31 21.3, 35 California 14 30.2
25% 145 Western Kentucky 31 17.7, 113 Northeast Louisiana 28 26.6
24% 15 Missouri 38 26.0, 9 Texas A&M 31 32.9
23% 220 Alabama A&M 20 11.8, 181 Alabama State 19 27.1
20% 199 Duquesne 16 20.0, 190 Monmouth 0 28.1
17% 86 Boston College 28 16.6, 58 Maryland 17 27.9
17% 79 Iowa State 41 27.4, 30 Texas Tech 7 47.7
16% 196 Georgetown 19 16.7, 155 Holy Cross 6 32.4
15% 162 Tennessee Tech 21 27.1, 142 Jacksonville State 14 36.6
15% 129 Minnesota 22 20.0, 52 Iowa 21 37.4
15% 125 Furman 14 20.7, 89 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 30.9
15% 27 Ohio State 33 19.5, 6 Wisconsin 29 32.5
14% 205 Bucknell 39 13.1, 186 Lafayette 13 25.2
14% 102 Wyoming 30 16.6, 43 San Diego State 27 39.1
13% 68 Virginia 28 16.4, 28 Miami - Florida 21 34.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.90 17 1.01 26 0.86 55 0.96 1 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111 80 85.0 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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