prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 14 Texas Christian 34 53.3, 131 Colorado State 10 9.4
90% 162 South Carolina State 20 50.3, 245 Savannah State 10 5.6
90% 23 Texas A&M 61 53.8, 114 Kansas 7 21.2
90% 9 Georgia 19 47.2, 104 Kentucky 10 6.9
88% 22 Michigan State 55 46.0, 126 Indiana 3 11.7
88% 15 Houston 37 49.5, 71 Southern Methodist 7 23.8
88% 5 Alabama 45 42.1, 75 Georgia Southern 21 1.1
88% 3 Louisiana State 52 45.0, 106 Mississippi 3 4.8
87% 70 Air Force 45 45.1, 157 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 16.2
87% 27 Florida 54 41.9, 134 Furman 32 4.1
87% 18 South Carolina 41 41.4, 154 The Citadel 20 0.0
86% 172 Jackson State 51 41.7, 240 Alcorn State 7 9.0
86% 44 Auburn 35 42.2, 144 Samford 16 11.1
86% 12 Missouri 31 45.6, 81 Texas Tech 27 18.0
85% 50 Brigham Young 42 44.5, 130 New Mexico State 7 18.8
85% 49 Northern Illinois 41 47.8, 108 Ball State 38 25.4
84% 147 Tennessee Tech 49 41.2, 222 Austin Peay 7 13.1
84% 138 Murray State 35 48.2, 218 Southeast Missouri Sta 34 25.4
84% 84 Wyoming 31 39.4, 191 New Mexico 10 10.4
82% 160 Albany 31 39.3, 216 Sacred Heart 21 15.5
82% 125 Eastern Washington 45 42.5, 207 Idaho State 14 20.5
82% 112 Lehigh 37 39.3, 187 Lafayette 13 14.9
82% 54 Toledo 44 51.2, 135 Central Michigan 17 31.5
82% 13 Notre Dame 16 35.7, 88 Boston College 14 6.6
81% 199 Presbyterian 45 43.9, 236 Charleston Southern 14 24.0
81% 8 Boise State 52 39.7, 58 San Diego State 35 15.7
81% 6 Stanford 31 40.2, 32 California 28 16.3
79% 40 Georgia Tech 38 40.5, 99 Duke 31 21.8
78% 80 North Dakota State 37 32.9, 195 Western Illinois 21 8.2
78% 7 Wisconsin 28 38.1, 42 Illinois 17 18.4
77% 183 Duquesne 45 32.5, 220 Robert Morris 10 10.6
77% 118 Rice 19 40.6, 181 Tulane 7 23.0
77% 95 Marshall 23 36.1, 192 Memphis 22 15.5
76% 210 North Carolina A&T 31 34.9, 241 North Carolina Central 21 14.0
76% 209 Southeast Louisiana 31 43.2, 237 Nicholls State 14 27.9
76% 185 Dartmouth 24 34.6, 234 Princeton 17 14.7
75% 86 Sam Houston State 36 34.5, 188 Texas State - San Marc 14 14.3
74% 190 McNeese State 45 36.7, 235 Lamar 17 20.0
74% 64 Arkansas State 45 38.3, 152 Middle Tennessee State 19 20.8
74% 29 Tulsa 57 37.3, 92 Texas - El Paso 28 20.9
74% 21 Virginia Tech 24 33.1, 45 North Carolina 21 15.2
73% 142 Troy State 34 36.7, 179 Florida Atlantic 7 21.0
72% 100 Harvard 45 38.1, 186 Yale 7 23.3
71% 206 Hampton 42 32.6, 227 Morgan State 18 16.8
71% 166 Holy Cross 41 29.1, 223 Fordham 21 11.1
71% 140 Buffalo 51 32.8, 193 Akron 10 16.8
71% 59 Northwestern 28 37.2, 102 Minnesota 13 22.7
70% 203 Georgia State 42 33.6, 225 Campbell 35 18.0
68% 10 Arkansas 44 35.2, 34 Mississippi State 17 22.6
67% 243 Davidson 30 30.9, 246 Valparaiso 22 17.1
67% 115 Towson 28 37.6, 164 Rhode Island 17 26.9
67% 72 Utah State 49 34.8, 127 Idaho 42 22.3
66% 143 Eastern Kentucky 23 36.0, 165 Tennessee - Martin 16 25.5
66% 51 Temple 42 28.0, 93 Army 14 14.8
65% 161 Bethune - Cookman 26 33.6, 197 Florida A&M 16 22.7
64% 111 Appalachian State 28 37.7, 163 Elon 24 29.1
63% 136 California Poly 41 39.4, 182 South Alabama 10 31.3
63% 24 Utah 30 31.4, 61 Washington State 27 21.2
62% 73 Wake Forest 31 35.8, 89 Maryland 10 27.7
61% 128 Stony Brook 41 42.8, 137 Liberty 31 36.5
61% 60 California - Los Angel 45 31.1, 79 Colorado 6 23.1
61% 17 Michigan 45 30.0, 25 Nebraska 17 21.9
60% 139 Stephen F. Austin 33 32.0, 178 Northwestern State 0 25.1
60% 74 Ohio 29 33.8, 121 Bowling Green 28 26.5
59% 198 Coastal Carolina 45 35.8, 213 Western Carolina 21 30.0
58% 228 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 42 26.9, 226 Texas Southern 6 23.1
58% 123 Delaware 26 24.9, 171 Villanova 16 18.2
58% 119 New Hampshire 30 37.5, 117 Maine 27 32.8
58% 110 Kent State 28 21.6, 132 Eastern Michigan 22 15.0
58% 109 Southern Utah 27 29.1, 148 Northern Arizona 24 23.8
58% 82 Northern Iowa 23 23.1, 120 Illinois State 20 17.7
57% 53 Tennessee 27 22.3, 43 Vanderbilt 21 19.0
55% 90 Florida International 28 25.1, 101 Northeast Louisiana 17 23.4
53% 153 North Dakota 38 19.4, 145 South Dakota 37 18.4
53% 48 Iowa 31 28.1, 69 Purdue 21 27.0
51% 129 James Madison 34 20.7, 149 Massachusetts 17 20.3
50% 107 Western Kentucky 31 23.9, 116 North Texas 21 24.0
49% 194 Colgate 21 23.1, 184 Bucknell 6 23.5
48% 238 Morehead State 55 30.6, 232 Butler 35 31.3
48% 155 William & Mary 25 20.7, 169 Richmond 23 21.3
48% 76 Western Michigan 24 29.5, 87 Miami - Ohio 21 30.2
46% 66 Louisville 34 15.7, 77 Connecticut 20 17.3
43% 158 Jacksonville State 38 30.9, 174 Tennessee State 16 33.6
43% 113 Wofford 28 22.1, 98 Tennessee - Chattanoog 27 25.1
43% 65 Oregon State 38 26.8, 41 Washington 21 29.5
43% 30 Miami - Florida 6 24.9, 39 South Florida 3 28.3
42% 239 Virginia Military 31 21.6, 231 Gardner - Webb 24 26.1
42% 221 Alabama A&M 17 23.7, 215 Prairie View 15 28.6
42% 205 San Diego 23 31.4, 176 Jacksonville 14 35.1
42% 97 East Carolina 38 22.6, 68 Central Florida 31 28.5
42% 55 Rutgers 20 23.4, 36 Cincinnati 3 27.1
42% 52 Louisiana Tech 24 27.0, 46 Nevada - Reno 20 32.3
41% 167 California - Davis 23 16.6, 150 Sacramento State 19 23.9
41% 31 Penn State 20 9.9, 28 Ohio State 14 18.7
40% 146 Weber State 48 31.3, 133 Portland State 33 37.2
39% 211 Wagner 44 18.0, 204 Monmouth 29 27.0
39% 156 Southern Illinois 35 27.0, 122 Indiana State 28 35.3
39% 96 Montana 36 26.7, 85 Montana State 10 34.5
38% 67 North Carolina State 37 23.1, 26 Clemson 13 32.0
36% 105 San Jose State 27 26.7, 62 Navy 24 36.3
33% 244 Delaware State 39 12.1, 224 Howard 36 27.4
31% 94 Fresno State 24 33.5, 78 Hawaii 21 43.2
29% 33 Kansas State 17 22.6, 19 Texas 13 36.6
27% 200 Cornell 48 21.0, 170 Pennsylvania 38 36.9
22% 56 Arizona 31 26.0, 20 Arizona State 27 43.2
21% 229 Columbia 35 13.4, 159 Brown 28 36.2
21% 217 Central Connecticut 42 23.4, 177 Bryant 21 41.9
21% 57 Virginia 14 13.2, 16 Florida State 13 35.3
18% 175 Missouri State 38 22.4, 103 Youngstown State 34 43.7
13% 38 Baylor 45 27.3, 4 Oklahoma 38 51.5
12% 168 Alabama - Birmingham 34 17.2, 35 Southern Mississippi 31 49.1
12% 11 Southern California 38 22.1, 1 Oregon 35 49.9
10% 63 Iowa State 37 17.8, 2 Oklahoma State 31 53.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
32 0.72 23 1.09 26 1.02 30 0.97 2 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 113 76 79.7 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net