prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 55 Southern Mississippi 44 51.4, 185 Memphis 7 9.5
91% 8 Boise State 36 54.3, 89 Wyoming 14 8.6
90% 78 Western Michigan 68 51.7, 205 Akron 19 13.5
90% 2 Oregon 49 51.3, 61 Oregon State 21 12.6
89% 5 Oklahoma 26 46.4, 44 Iowa State 6 13.0
88% 16 Missouri 24 46.1, 129 Kansas 10 13.7
87% 62 Northern Illinois 18 48.8, 136 Eastern Michigan 12 23.6
85% 83 Hawaii 35 42.6, 174 Tulane 23 15.4
84% 58 San Diego State 31 42.2, 160 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 15.2
84% 52 Louisiana Tech 44 42.4, 139 New Mexico State 0 16.3
83% 9 Southern California 50 40.0, 48 California - Los Angel 0 15.9
81% 1 Louisiana State 41 42.2, 10 Arkansas 17 21.7
80% 42 Arizona 45 44.1, 92 Louisiana - Lafayette 37 25.9
79% 7 Wisconsin 45 35.0, 29 Penn State 7 11.6
78% 47 Toledo 45 46.0, 100 Ball State 28 30.4
78% 25 Baylor 66 49.8, 71 Texas Tech 42 35.0
76% 43 Mississippi State 31 33.6, 106 Mississippi 3 13.8
76% 40 North Carolina 37 38.5, 94 Duke 21 21.0
76% 6 Stanford 28 40.6, 18 Notre Dame 14 24.6
76% 3 Alabama 42 35.7, 56 Auburn 14 15.0
75% 128 Old Dominion 35 36.5, 175 Norfolk State 18 19.2
73% 75 Purdue 33 39.7, 138 Indiana 25 25.4
72% 57 North Carolina State 56 32.4, 93 Maryland 41 15.6
72% 38 Temple 34 27.0, 117 Kent State 16 6.5
71% 122 Stony Brook 31 41.6, 161 Albany 28 28.2
71% 11 Michigan 40 31.3, 33 Ohio State 34 13.8
68% 30 Nebraska 20 35.5, 39 Iowa 7 22.6
68% 15 Michigan State 31 32.0, 64 Northwestern 17 18.0
67% 86 Florida International 31 34.0, 158 Middle Tennessee State 18 21.2
67% 70 Air Force 45 34.4, 133 Colorado State 21 22.1
65% 77 Central Florida 31 31.2, 104 Texas - El Paso 14 19.6
65% 34 West Virginia 21 37.5, 53 Pittsburgh 20 28.0
64% 23 South Carolina 34 35.7, 36 Clemson 13 26.4
63% 105 Western Kentucky 41 30.5, 132 Troy State 18 20.4
63% 74 Southern Methodist 27 27.0, 116 Rice 24 16.0
63% 73 Ohio 21 31.8, 90 Miami - Ohio 14 22.4
62% 12 Houston 48 46.2, 31 Tulsa 16 40.4
59% 46 Cincinnati 30 31.0, 79 Syracuse 13 24.2
59% 14 Georgia 31 34.0, 41 Georgia Tech 17 27.8
58% 59 Washington 38 39.1, 66 Washington State 21 34.7
58% 19 Virginia Tech 38 23.8, 51 Virginia 0 17.8
57% 217 Grambling 36 25.6, 223 Southern 12 22.8
57% 102 Marshall 34 30.3, 91 East Carolina 27 27.2
54% 54 Vanderbilt 41 26.6, 68 Wake Forest 7 25.2
52% 115 James Madison 20 19.3, 143 Eastern Kentucky 17 18.5
50% 120 Bowling Green 42 24.4, 123 Buffalo 28 24.5
46% 69 Utah State 21 36.0, 60 Nevada - Reno 17 37.2
42% 141 Central Arkansas 34 31.6, 140 Tennessee Tech 14 34.9
41% 181 Florida Atlantic 38 23.4, 149 Alabama - Birmingham 35 30.5
41% 85 Connecticut 40 16.0, 45 Rutgers 22 23.1
41% 26 California 47 22.6, 22 Arizona State 38 29.7
41% 24 Florida State 21 21.8, 32 Florida 7 28.1
38% 95 Kentucky 10 15.4, 50 Tennessee 7 25.9
37% 96 San Jose State 27 26.9, 88 Fresno State 24 35.7
37% 63 Louisville 34 12.9, 37 South Florida 24 24.8
36% 21 Texas 27 22.1, 13 Texas A&M 25 32.8
34% 108 Minnesota 27 14.8, 35 Illinois 7 28.2
25% 81 Boston College 24 5.0, 27 Miami - Florida 17 28.1
16% 97 Colorado 17 9.0, 20 Utah 14 38.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 0.94 16 1.07 15 1.24 9 1.05 4 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 59 45 41.4 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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