prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 19 Texas Christian 56 56.0, 160 Nevada - Las Vegas 9 8.2
91% 8 Boise State 45 71.5, 197 New Mexico 0 0.0
91% 3 Oregon 49 54.1, 65 California - Los Angel 31 14.2
83% 67 Georgia Southern 55 44.6, 126 Old Dominion 48 22.2
81% 62 Utah State 24 44.7, 145 New Mexico State 21 24.5
81% 60 Arkansas State 45 40.3, 140 Troy State 14 16.8
79% 87 Montana 41 40.1, 124 Central Arkansas 14 21.2
76% 61 Nevada - Reno 56 36.3, 125 Idaho 3 16.5
73% 82 Sam Houston State 34 39.0, 133 Stony Brook 27 24.3
73% 1 Louisiana State 42 35.0, 13 Georgia 10 17.8
72% 4 Wisconsin 42 35.9, 15 Michigan State 39 21.0
70% 54 San Diego State 35 37.1, 94 Fresno State 28 23.5
69% 35 Cincinnati 35 33.1, 71 Connecticut 27 19.0
69% 5 Oklahoma State 44 45.0, 7 Oklahoma 10 35.8
68% 49 Pittsburgh 33 31.6, 83 Syracuse 20 17.6
67% 113 Northeast Louisiana 26 32.7, 176 Florida Atlantic 0 19.6
67% 80 North Dakota State 26 25.4, 116 James Madison 14 9.8
67% 77 Northern Iowa 28 31.2, 102 Wofford 21 18.0
67% 27 Kansas State 30 32.5, 39 Iowa State 23 20.2
64% 123 North Texas 59 35.1, 157 Middle Tennessee State 7 24.9
64% 81 Wyoming 22 31.6, 141 Colorado State 19 20.8
62% 99 Montana State 26 39.4, 119 New Hampshire 25 31.7
59% 52 Brigham Young 41 31.7, 91 Hawaii 20 25.3
58% 64 Northern Illinois 23 37.8, 74 Ohio 20 34.6
50% 31 West Virginia 30 31.0, 55 South Florida 27 31.1
49% 24 Baylor 48 32.6, 20 Texas 24 32.8
47% 111 Lehigh 40 30.3, 117 Towson 38 31.2
38% 115 Maine 34 24.5, 110 Appalachian State 12 32.9
36% 38 Clemson 38 21.9, 14 Virginia Tech 10 32.3
12% 48 Southern Mississippi 49 27.2, 10 Houston 28 52.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.74 12 1.27 6 1.35 4 0.90 3 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 30 24 21.1 1.14
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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