prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 7 Oklahoma 31 39.4, 42 Iowa 14 18.1
79% 13 Texas A&M 33 44.6, 65 Northwestern 22 26.8
71% 20 Baylor 67 47.3, 45 Washington 56 36.7
70% 8 Boise State 56 40.5, 24 Arizona State 24 28.6
68% 12 Houston 30 36.1, 31 Penn State 14 23.8
68% 11 Arkansas 29 40.7, 30 Kansas State 16 30.1
66% 19 Texas Christian 31 36.0, 43 Louisiana Tech 24 25.0
65% 36 Mississippi State 23 30.9, 81 Wake Forest 17 19.2
65% 17 Missouri 41 32.0, 49 North Carolina 24 20.5
64% 41 Temple 37 28.6, 85 Wyoming 15 17.1
64% 40 Toledo 42 43.8, 66 Air Force 41 36.2
60% 10 Michigan 23 28.8, 25 Virginia Tech 20 20.5
60% 2 Oklahoma State 41 43.5, 5 Stanford 38 38.2
59% 28 Southern Mississippi 24 32.8, 47 Nevada - Reno 17 27.4
58% 53 Auburn 43 27.1, 69 Virginia 24 22.1
58% 29 Utah 30 25.9, 48 Georgia Tech 27 21.5
58% 16 South Carolina 30 27.3, 23 Nebraska 13 23.7
58% 4 Oregon 45 44.5, 6 Wisconsin 38 41.1
56% 22 Texas 21 22.9, 26 California 10 20.8
55% 55 Illinois 20 23.1, 61 California - Los Angel 14 21.5
51% 33 Florida 24 22.9, 35 Ohio State 17 22.6
50% 60 Northern Illinois 38 33.8, 58 Arkansas State 20 33.7
49% 62 North Carolina State 31 20.5, 59 Louisville 24 21.1
48% 38 Cincinnati 31 25.9, 34 Vanderbilt 24 26.6
47% 15 Michigan State 33 24.0, 14 Georgia 30 24.9
46% 79 Purdue 37 31.0, 74 Western Michigan 32 32.1
43% 94 Marshall 20 21.0, 84 Florida International 10 23.8
43% 76 Ohio 24 31.5, 67 Utah State 23 33.5
43% 56 Rutgers 27 19.5, 44 Iowa State 13 22.2
43% 32 West Virginia 70 35.3, 27 Clemson 33 37.1
43% 21 Florida State 18 21.8, 18 Notre Dame 14 24.2
42% 50 Brigham Young 24 27.9, 37 Tulsa 21 31.3
42% 3 Alabama 21 22.0, 1 Louisiana State 0 26.7
41% 77 Southern Methodist 28 19.7, 52 Pittsburgh 6 26.4
36% 87 Louisiana - Lafayette 32 27.0, 57 San Diego State 30 36.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
21 0.77 11 1.40 3 1.30 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 35 22 21.2 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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