08 Jan 2013: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2012 season

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1 19   8 18.1  4.4 Alabama                  124 60   0 15.9  1.9 Rice                    
  2  6   8 19.1  1.4 Oregon                   125 36   0 15.7  2.4 Hawaii                  
  3 29   7 17.8  3.9 Louisiana State          126 32   0 15.9  1.8 Illinois State          
  4 45   7 18.1  2.7 Oklahoma                 127 23   0 15.7  2.5 Kansas                  
  5 34   6 17.5  4.2 Florida                  128 22   0 15.8  1.9 Troy State              
  6 46   7 17.7  3.5 Stanford                 129 23   0 16.2  0.7 Indiana                 
  7 17   7 17.9  2.9 Georgia                  130 31   0 15.8  2.0 Southern Mississippi    
  8 44   7 18.0  2.6 Wisconsin                131 38   0 15.4  3.2 Dartmouth               
  9 14   6 17.3  4.5 Notre Dame               132 16   0 15.7  2.0 Central Michigan        
 10 19   7 18.4  1.6 Oklahoma State           133 48   0 15.3  3.1 Holy Cross              
 11 22   7 18.4  1.7 Texas A&M                134 63   0 15.6  2.4 Central Arkansas        
 12 18   6 17.6  3.7 Florida State            135 29   0 15.6  2.3 Liberty                 
 13 31   6 17.3  4.1 South Carolina           136 44   0 15.4  2.9 Army                    
 14 17   6 17.5  3.2 Ohio State               137 57   0 15.2  3.4 Eastern Kentucky        
 15 28   6 17.5  3.1 Southern California      138 40   0 15.5  2.6 Western Kentucky        
 16 17   6 17.3  3.6 Boise State              139 41   0 15.4  3.0 Florida International   
 17 12   6 17.6  2.7 Kansas State             140 45   0 15.7  1.9 Colorado                
 18 31   5 17.2  3.8 Texas Christian          141 22   0 15.5  2.5 Texas - El Paso         
 19 18   5 17.7  2.2 Clemson                  142 29   0 15.5  2.5 Southern Utah           
 20 13   5 17.9  1.6 West Virginia            143 21   0 15.0  3.7 Samford                 
 21 13   5 17.2  3.1 Texas                    144 40   0 15.3  2.7 Miami - Ohio            
 22 25   5 17.3  3.1 Michigan                 145 71   0 15.3  2.9 Duquesne                
 23 18   5 17.2  3.1 Oregon State             146 34   0 15.4  2.5 The Citadel             
 24 59   5 18.0  0.8 Baylor                   147 29   0 15.2  3.0 Buffalo                 
 25 22   5 17.3  2.6 Arizona State            148 31   0 15.0  3.7 Wagner                  
 26 66   5 17.1  3.1 Missouri                 149 29   0 15.5  2.2 Jacksonville State      
 27 36   4 16.6  4.4 Penn State               150 36   0 15.1  3.4 Indiana State           
 28 53   4 16.6  4.4 Michigan State           151 33   0 15.3  2.7 Lafayette               
 29 38   4 16.8  3.8 Virginia Tech            152 19   0 15.5  2.2 Furman                  
 30 61   4 17.2  2.7 Miami - Florida          153 25   0 15.2  2.8 Colorado State          
 31 34   4 17.3  2.2 North Carolina           154 45   0 15.2  2.8 Northern Arizona        
 32 13   4 16.9  3.2 Cincinnati               155 25   0 15.3  2.5 Monmouth                
 33 25   4 16.7  3.6 Vanderbilt               156 54   0 15.1  2.9 Bethune - Cookman       
 34 17   4 17.1  2.5 Nebraska                 157 40   0 15.5  1.8 Coastal Carolina        
 35 41   4 16.6  3.8 Pittsburgh               158 18   0 15.1  2.9 Princeton               
 36 14   4 16.7  3.7 Brigham Young            159 52   0 14.9  3.5 Yale                    
 37 26   4 16.7  3.5 Mississippi State        160 34  -1 15.1  2.6 Middle Tennessee State  
 38 27   4 17.3  1.8 Arizona                  161 30  -1 15.1  2.6 North Texas             
 39 43   4 16.7  3.4 Utah                     162 55  -1 15.0  3.0 San Diego               
 40 67   4 17.0  2.6 Arkansas                 163 21  -1 15.4  1.6 Alabama - Birmingham    
 41 14   4 17.2  2.1 Northern Illinois        164 33  -1 15.4  1.7 Cornell                 
 42 68   4 17.0  2.5 Georgia Tech             165 15  -1 15.3  2.1 Fordham                 
 43 28   4 16.9  2.8 California - Los Angeles 166 17  -1 15.2  2.2 Elon                    
 44 29   3 16.7  3.1 North Carolina State     167 41  -1 15.1  2.6 Drake                   
 45 22   3 17.0  2.2 Harvard                  168 30  -1 15.1  2.6 Missouri State          
 46 24   3 16.8  2.6 Northwestern             169 37  -1 15.1  2.4 Memphis                 
 47 74   3 16.2  4.2 North Dakota State       170 35  -1 15.3  1.8 Texas State - San Marcos
 48 18   3 17.4  1.0 Texas Tech               171 22  -1 15.5  1.3 Stephen F. Austin       
 49 27   3 17.0  2.1 Tennessee                172 35  -1 14.9  3.0 McNeese State           
 50 14   3 16.5  3.3 Louisville               173 59  -1 15.2  1.9 Tennessee - Martin      
 51 57   3 16.1  4.4 Iowa                     174 48  -1 15.0  2.6 Sacramento State        
 52 49   3 16.3  4.0 Iowa State               175 43  -1 15.8  0.1 Murray State            
 53 29   3 16.0  4.5 Rutgers                  176 38  -1 15.0  2.4 Massachusetts           
 54 16   3 16.9  2.3 Tulsa                    177 26  -1 15.0  2.4 California - Davis      
 55 25   3 16.5  3.2 Central Florida          178 35  -1 15.6  0.7 Portland State          
 56 50   3 16.5  3.2 Washington               179 28  -1 15.2  1.8 North Dakota            
 57 23   3 16.9  2.1 Fresno State             180 42  -1 15.1  2.0 Bryant                  
 58 61   3 16.6  2.9 Syracuse                 181 93  -1 14.7  3.2 Dayton                  
 59 41   3 16.5  3.1 Auburn                   182 45  -1 15.1  2.2 Jacksonville            
 60 56   3 16.6  2.6 Georgia Southern         183 33  -1 14.6  3.5 Robert Morris           
 61 64   3 16.5  3.0 California               184 88  -1 14.9  2.5 Tennessee State         
 62 25   3 16.7  2.5 San Diego State          185 18  -1 14.6  3.4 Georgetown              
 63 58   3 16.7  2.3 Mississippi              186 20  -1 15.0  2.1 Weber State             
 64 48   3 16.5  2.8 Utah State               187 23  -1 14.9  2.6 Florida Atlantic        
 65 51   2 16.5  2.6 Arkansas State           188 22  -1 15.0  2.1 Eastern Michigan        
 66 14   2 16.9  1.6 Nevada - Reno            189 33  -1 15.3  1.3 Central Connecticut     
 67 14   2 16.5  2.4 Purdue                   190 23  -1 14.3  4.2 Bucknell                
 68 47   2 17.3  0.4 Louisiana Tech           191 36  -1 14.9  2.4 New Mexico              
 69 58   2 16.3  2.9 Sam Houston State        192 68  -2 15.1  1.6 Texas - San Antonio     
 70 34   2 15.9  4.0 Connecticut              193 83  -2 14.8  2.4 Jackson State           
 71 60   2 16.0  3.6 South Florida            194 26  -2 14.6  3.1 Columbia                
 72 25   2 16.8  1.6 Toledo                   195 22  -2 14.9  2.2 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 73 60   2 15.9  4.0 Boston College           196 23  -2 15.0  1.9 Idaho                   
 74 40   2 16.0  3.6 Virginia                 197 22  -2 14.8  2.5 South Dakota            
 75 15   2 16.8  1.2 Houston                  198 95  -2 14.6  3.0 Alabama State           
 76 65   2 16.2  2.7 Temple                   199 34  -2 14.9  1.9 Akron                   
 77 30   2 15.7  4.1 Wofford                  200 37  -2 15.1  1.2 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 78 38   2 16.2  2.8 Maryland                 201 53  -2 14.4  3.2 South Carolina State    
 79 27   1 15.9  3.5 Maine                    202 35  -2 15.1  1.2 Eastern Illinois        
 80 28   1 15.8  3.8 James Madison            203 22  -2 14.8  1.9 Tulane                  
 81 16   1 15.9  3.6 Villanova                204 41  -2 14.5  2.8 Sacred Heart            
 82 41   1 16.0  3.2 Northern Iowa            205 71  -2 14.4  3.0 Florida A&M             
 83 15   1 15.8  3.6 Navy                     206 31  -2 14.5  2.5 Northern Colorado       
 84 42   1 15.9  3.4 Southern Methodist       207 59  -3 14.9  1.2 Tennessee Tech          
 85 36   1 16.1  2.9 Lehigh                   208 18  -3 14.5  2.4 South Alabama           
 86 31   1 16.4  2.0 Towson                   209 76  -3 14.3  2.9 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
 87 53   1 16.1  3.0 San Jose State           210 14  -3 14.7  1.4 New Mexico State        
 88 43   1 15.9  3.4 Minnesota                211 40  -3 14.1  3.3 Norfolk State           
 89 39   1 16.4  1.8 Appalachian State        212 65  -3 14.2  2.8 Hampton                 
 90 47   1 16.0  2.8 Kent State               213 18  -3 14.1  3.2 Western Illinois        
 91 32   1 16.3  2.0 New Hampshire            214 15  -3 14.7  1.1 Western Carolina        
 92 46   1 15.9  3.3 Kentucky                 215 76  -3 14.9  0.5 Morehead State          
 93 43   1 15.9  3.2 Richmond                 216 31  -3 14.5  2.0 Rhode Island            
 94 37   1 16.0  2.6 Air Force                217 93  -3 14.2  2.7 Alabama A&M             
 95 58   1 16.1  2.4 Albany                   218 43  -3 14.4  2.1 Southeast Missouri State
 96 72   1 16.8  0.3 Old Dominion             219 23  -3 13.9  3.7 North Carolina A&T      
 97 51   1 16.4  1.5 Duke                     220 13  -3 14.4  1.8 Georgia State           
 98 41   1 16.2  2.0 Ball State               221 39  -3 14.3  2.3 Northwestern State      
 99 35   1 16.4  1.5 East Carolina            222 64  -3 13.9  3.5 Marist                  
100 31   1 16.3  1.6 Eastern Washington       223 45  -3 14.1  2.6 Butler                  
101 66   1 15.8  3.1 Pennsylvania             224 13  -4 14.3  1.8 Southeast Louisiana     
102 42   1 15.6  3.6 Illinois                 225 25  -4 14.1  2.2 Delaware State          
103 38   1 15.9  2.9 Ohio                     226 25  -4 14.5  1.0 Prairie View            
104 53   1 15.7  3.3 Stony Brook              227 13  -4 14.1  2.1 Gardner - Webb          
105 55   1 15.9  2.6 Wake Forest              228 30  -4 14.1  1.8 Howard                  
106 19   1 16.0  2.4 Youngstown State         229 19  -4 14.1  2.0 North Carolina Central  
107 31   1 15.5  3.7 Bowling Green            230 90  -4 14.1  1.8 Southern                
108 47   1 16.2  1.6 Louisiana - Lafayette    231 91  -4 14.0  1.8 Grambling               
109 28   0 15.4  4.1 Brown                    232 40  -5 13.7  2.2 Morgan State            
110 28   0 15.6  3.2 Delaware                 233 12  -5 13.9  1.7 Charleston Southern     
111 28   0 16.0  2.2 Western Michigan         234 19  -5 13.8  1.6 Presbyterian            
112 60   0 15.8  2.6 Northeast Louisiana      235 29  -5 13.7  2.0 Lamar                   
113 49   0 15.7  2.8 Montana                  236 23  -5 13.8  1.5 Austin Peay             
114 46   0 15.6  3.1 Montana State            237 10  -5 13.5  2.6 Virginia Military       
115 51   0 15.9  2.4 California Poly          238 26  -5 13.1  3.5 Mississippi Valley State
116 53   0 15.9  2.1 Washington State         239 10  -6 13.6  1.5 Nicholls State          
117 53   0 15.4  3.6 South Dakota State       240 41  -6 13.4  2.1 Alcorn State            
118 41   0 15.3  3.8 William & Mary           241 19  -6 13.9  0.2 Idaho State             
119 21   0 16.3  1.0 Marshall                 242 50  -6 13.2  2.6 Davidson                
120 29   0 15.8  2.4 Wyoming                  243 24  -6 13.3  1.7 Texas Southern          
121 42   0 15.5  3.3 Tennessee - Chattanooga  244 11  -7 13.4  1.2 Campbell                
122 33   0 16.2  1.2 Colgate                  245  7  -8 12.8  1.2 Savannah State          
123 30   0 15.4  3.4 Southern Illinois        246 17  -9 13.0  0.2 Valparaiso              

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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