prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 27 Utah 41 49.0, 211 Northern Colorado 0 3.0
89% 17 Missouri 62 53.1, 222 Southeast Louisiana 10 2.3
88% 14 Oklahoma State 84 69.9, 245 Savannah State 0 0.0
88% 5 Ohio State 56 44.7, 149 Miami - Ohio 10 0.0
87% 59 James Madison 55 42.9, 235 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 1.2
87% 19 Texas 37 40.7, 128 Wyoming 17 7.3
86% 50 Air Force 49 51.0, 238 Idaho State 21 3.2
86% 38 South Florida 34 41.9, 164 Tennessee - Chattanoog 13 11.6
86% 29 Texas Tech 44 55.5, 229 Northwestern State 6 5.4
86% 23 Georgia 45 43.4, 166 Buffalo 23 6.4
86% 20 West Virginia 69 35.6, 117 Marshall 34 7.6
86% 11 Stanford 20 47.8, 181 San Jose State 17 5.1
86% 9 Louisiana State 41 51.1, 183 North Texas 14 5.1
86% 4 Florida 27 51.6, 137 Bowling Green 14 6.9
85% 172 Western Kentucky 49 41.1, 240 Austin Peay 10 16.6
85% 135 Western Illinois 23 33.5, 234 Butler 15 9.0
85% 106 Central Michigan 38 37.8, 199 Southeast Missouri Sta 27 16.3
85% 92 Montana 35 39.9, 179 South Dakota 24 17.5
85% 91 Lehigh 27 29.0, 141 Monmouth 17 14.4
85% 88 Purdue 48 34.4, 178 Eastern Kentucky 6 13.2
85% 62 Mississippi 49 39.9, 162 Central Arkansas 27 15.0
85% 60 Kansas State 51 47.3, 171 Missouri State 9 19.0
85% 43 Mississippi State 56 41.2, 195 Jackson State 9 5.9
85% 42 Brigham Young 30 40.9, 139 Washington State 6 14.9
85% 39 Arizona State 63 39.6, 136 Northern Arizona 6 14.0
85% 36 North Carolina 62 33.1, 100 Elon 0 15.4
85% 30 Arizona 24 41.7, 119 Toledo 17 16.6
85% 21 South Carolina 17 29.5, 102 Vanderbilt 13 12.4
85% 16 Arkansas 49 48.0, 124 Jacksonville State 24 14.8
85% 15 Wisconsin 26 38.1, 83 Northern Iowa 21 13.6
85% 13 Florida State 69 57.3, 208 Murray State 3 6.8
85% 6 Oklahoma 24 48.1, 131 Texas - El Paso 7 13.8
85% 2 Oregon 57 54.4, 118 Arkansas State 34 11.3
84% 152 Coastal Carolina 29 42.2, 242 North Carolina A&T 13 10.4
84% 116 Indiana 24 45.0, 225 Indiana State 17 19.5
84% 107 Wofford 34 33.5, 212 Gardner - Webb 7 15.9
84% 65 Central Florida 56 36.4, 197 Akron 14 14.2
84% 18 Nebraska 49 37.2, 69 Southern Mississippi 20 18.2
84% 12 Southern California 49 41.6, 74 Hawaii 10 18.3
84% 10 Virginia Tech 20 34.7, 46 Georgia Tech 17 17.4
84% 1 Alabama 41 40.4, 63 Michigan 14 17.5
82% 168 Bethune - Cookman 38 26.9, 217 Alabama State 28 15.7
82% 22 Iowa 18 28.7, 71 Northern Illinois 17 16.3
81% 138 Kent State 41 30.7, 193 Towson 21 17.5
78% 190 The Citadel 49 35.7, 233 Charleston Southern 14 20.4
78% 148 Ball State 37 41.5, 213 Eastern Michigan 26 22.5
78% 77 Rutgers 24 36.0, 186 Tulane 12 19.3
78% 54 Illinois 24 34.6, 98 Western Michigan 7 20.0
75% 84 Fresno State 37 38.6, 145 Weber State 10 22.5
74% 96 Georgia Southern 58 37.4, 150 Jacksonville 0 22.4
72% 188 New Mexico 66 37.6, 230 Southern 21 22.0
71% 68 California - Los Angel 49 37.1, 160 Rice 24 22.4
69% 176 Louisiana - Lafayette 40 41.1, 231 Lamar 0 24.2
68% 51 Connecticut 37 30.8, 73 Massachusetts 0 20.6
67% 121 South Carolina State 33 34.9, 202 Georgia State 6 22.5
66% 47 New Hampshire 38 32.6, 110 Holy Cross 17 22.0
65% 143 California Poly 41 32.8, 175 San Diego 14 22.7
65% 75 Baylor 59 32.3, 109 Southern Methodist 24 22.6
63% 104 North Dakota State 52 26.4, 122 Robert Morris 0 17.5
62% 87 Kansas 31 29.1, 112 South Dakota State 17 20.9
61% 90 Minnesota 30 34.9, 156 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 25.8
61% 70 Washington 21 33.0, 89 San Diego State 12 25.0
61% 49 Maryland 7 27.2, 53 William & Mary 6 21.4
60% 203 Georgetown 35 22.3, 237 Davidson 14 17.8
60% 157 Florida Atlantic 7 28.9, 177 Wagner 3 21.2
60% 99 Duke 46 35.4, 133 Florida International 26 26.1
59% 79 Wake Forest 20 33.3, 94 Liberty 17 26.1
58% 224 Delaware State 17 27.3, 223 Virginia Military 10 24.1
58% 165 Old Dominion 57 32.5, 167 Duquesne 23 28.3
58% 159 Utah State 34 32.1, 169 Southern Utah 3 27.0
58% 134 Stony Brook 49 32.2, 129 Central Connecticut 17 28.9
58% 111 Eastern Washington 20 32.7, 144 Idaho 3 29.5
58% 82 Troy State 39 35.6, 130 Alabama - Birmingham 29 29.4
58% 76 Virginia 43 22.0, 66 Richmond 19 20.0
58% 64 Louisville 32 30.0, 58 Kentucky 14 26.3
58% 35 Notre Dame 50 27.4, 52 Navy 10 24.1
55% 34 Tennessee 35 28.2, 45 North Carolina State 21 27.0
50% 25 Miami - Florida 41 21.0, 40 Boston College 32 20.9
49% 120 Albany 40 24.6, 101 Colgate 23 25.0
46% 210 Tennessee Tech 41 22.1, 194 Hampton 31 23.0
43% 221 Texas - San Antonio 33 39.9, 220 South Alabama 31 43.9
42% 228 Morgan State 30 24.7, 196 Sacred Heart 27 28.2
42% 218 Tennessee State 17 20.1, 184 Florida A&M 14 24.3
42% 173 Illinois State 56 29.6, 125 Dayton 14 32.9
42% 86 East Carolina 35 33.3, 56 Appalachian State 13 37.6
42% 85 Iowa State 38 29.3, 61 Tulsa 23 33.6
42% 78 Northwestern 42 22.6, 81 Syracuse 41 25.1
42% 37 Nevada - Reno 31 29.6, 33 California 24 34.7
40% 216 Texas Southern 44 20.4, 185 Prairie View 41 26.2
40% 24 Clemson 26 23.9, 8 Auburn 19 31.2
39% 206 New Mexico State 49 23.5, 161 Sacramento State 19 31.0
39% 205 Tennessee - Martin 20 22.2, 187 Memphis 17 31.8
39% 170 Samford 24 20.7, 113 Furman 21 26.9
36% 155 McNeese State 27 22.7, 123 Middle Tennessee State 21 31.6
34% 41 Michigan State 17 24.2, 7 Boise State 13 36.6
27% 226 Alcorn State 22 22.1, 163 Grambling 21 37.1
27% 140 Colorado State 22 19.8, 80 Colorado 17 31.6
26% 214 Marist 35 15.1, 158 Bryant 10 32.7
25% 95 Temple 41 18.8, 31 Villanova 10 31.9
17% 201 Eastern Illinois 49 16.5, 97 Southern Illinois 28 33.4
16% 198 Texas State - San Marc 30 22.3, 72 Houston 13 51.9
15% 132 Youngstown State 31 12.3, 28 Pittsburgh 17 40.6
15% 105 Ohio 24 11.4, 26 Penn State 14 35.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
24 1.02 19 1.00 12 0.89 48 1.08 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 103 78 75.6 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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