prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 62 North Carolina State 31 45.9, 234 South Alabama 7 3.7
91% 55 Purdue 54 42.3, 182 Eastern Michigan 16 11.9
91% 42 Nevada - Reno 45 42.9, 194 Northwestern State 34 7.2
91% 29 Central Florida 33 39.6, 123 Florida International 20 14.0
91% 17 Boise State 39 42.7, 111 Miami - Ohio 12 10.4
91% 16 Nebraska 42 45.5, 97 Arkansas State 13 17.5
91% 14 Florida State 52 40.6, 86 Wake Forest 0 13.8
91% 13 Kansas State 35 49.8, 143 North Texas 21 9.4
91% 7 Georgia 56 56.3, 220 Florida Atlantic 20 0.0
91% 2 Louisiana State 63 55.7, 206 Idaho 14 0.0
90% 91 Hawaii 54 46.8, 237 Lamar 2 8.1
90% 70 Vanderbilt 58 43.3, 219 Presbyterian 0 7.4
90% 53 Illinois 44 52.3, 242 Charleston Southern 0 2.2
90% 20 South Carolina 49 49.2, 193 Alabama - Birmingham 6 5.1
89% 177 Tennessee State 34 37.8, 233 Austin Peay 14 15.1
89% 103 Duke 54 48.0, 239 North Carolina Central 17 10.9
89% 101 Illinois State 54 42.4, 199 Eastern Illinois 51 18.3
89% 74 Tulsa 66 52.0, 243 Nicholls State 16 4.0
89% 69 Iowa State 37 36.0, 204 Western Illinois 3 7.0
89% 67 Lehigh 17 40.0, 192 Princeton 14 10.0
89% 46 Penn State 34 31.8, 96 Navy 7 15.9
89% 44 Harvard 28 46.2, 197 San Diego 13 9.9
89% 31 Cincinnati 23 53.2, 232 Delaware State 7 0.9
89% 3 Ohio State 35 39.5, 38 California 28 17.0
88% 138 Dartmouth 35 33.3, 227 Butler 7 9.0
88% 85 Delaware 19 30.7, 167 Bucknell 3 10.3
88% 43 Michigan 63 46.0, 181 Massachusetts 13 11.6
88% 4 Oregon 63 64.7, 163 Tennessee Tech 14 12.9
87% 141 Duquesne 45 48.3, 246 Valparaiso 17 7.7
87% 140 Samford 44 28.5, 222 Gardner - Webb 23 12.0
87% 107 Richmond 47 38.0, 238 Virginia Military 6 7.6
87% 90 Wofford 49 44.5, 211 Western Carolina 20 15.9
87% 27 Mississippi State 30 41.4, 156 Troy State 24 16.9
87% 23 Arizona 56 39.9, 139 South Carolina State 0 8.4
87% 22 Texas Tech 49 57.5, 161 New Mexico 14 17.4
86% 168 Sacramento State 28 36.5, 228 Northern Colorado 17 17.3
86% 104 New Hampshire 43 41.4, 179 Central Connecticut 10 21.0
86% 71 Old Dominion 70 55.9, 226 Campbell 14 15.5
86% 45 Auburn 31 36.7, 120 Northeast Louisiana 28 15.1
86% 26 Clemson 41 49.0, 125 Furman 7 19.7
86% 12 Oklahoma State 65 57.7, 116 Louisiana - Lafayette 24 21.1
85% 113 Monmouth 38 24.8, 210 Wagner 17 12.3
85% 65 Iowa 27 23.2, 92 Northern Iowa 16 13.7
85% 18 Baylor 48 51.1, 119 Sam Houston State 23 20.9
85% 11 Texas Christian 20 43.8, 128 Kansas 6 14.8
85% 5 West Virginia 42 41.0, 52 James Madison 12 19.1
84% 162 Southern Illinois 35 37.7, 216 Southeast Missouri Sta 14 20.9
84% 76 San Diego State 49 36.0, 160 North Dakota 41 16.2
84% 36 Miami - Florida 38 42.2, 118 Bethune - Cookman 10 18.2
84% 10 Texas 66 33.6, 72 Mississippi 31 18.2
83% 121 Villanova 31 32.0, 174 Rhode Island 10 18.2
83% 66 Washington 52 45.4, 170 Portland State 13 20.9
83% 60 Toledo 27 42.7, 146 Bowling Green 15 20.4
82% 105 San Jose State 40 30.5, 152 Colorado State 20 17.7
82% 78 Fresno State 69 36.2, 126 Colorado 14 21.3
81% 94 Montana 34 36.8, 129 Liberty 14 23.2
80% 79 Louisiana Tech 56 44.2, 150 Rice 37 25.7
80% 35 California - Los Angel 37 46.2, 93 Houston 6 28.6
80% 34 Wisconsin 16 37.0, 83 Utah State 14 19.7
80% 32 Georgia Tech 56 31.8, 51 Virginia 20 21.1
78% 115 Montana State 43 37.1, 173 Stephen F. Austin 35 22.5
78% 1 Alabama 52 33.4, 30 Arkansas 0 23.3
77% 106 Maine 51 32.5, 186 Bryant 7 19.9
76% 207 Tennessee - Martin 23 34.6, 223 Southeast Louisiana 6 22.5
76% 180 Dayton 20 27.4, 191 Robert Morris 14 20.0
76% 135 Colgate 35 33.8, 164 Sacred Heart 14 23.8
75% 224 Alabama A&M 42 27.0, 235 Prairie View 30 18.2
75% 48 Utah 24 26.2, 54 Brigham Young 21 19.6
74% 175 Columbia 10 25.7, 195 Marist 9 18.7
74% 155 South Dakota State 12 29.2, 188 California - Davis 8 18.9
74% 84 Northern Illinois 41 31.6, 153 Army 40 20.9
72% 127 Texas - El Paso 41 31.9, 149 New Mexico State 28 24.2
71% 114 Yale 24 24.8, 172 Georgetown 21 17.8
71% 95 Brown 24 25.5, 142 Holy Cross 21 19.7
71% 75 Minnesota 28 32.8, 87 Western Michigan 23 25.4
70% 64 Syracuse 28 38.1, 102 Stony Brook 17 27.4
70% 39 Louisville 39 25.6, 40 North Carolina 34 20.4
69% 209 Jackson State 45 35.4, 236 Texas Southern 35 26.6
65% 187 Akron 66 36.0, 203 Morgan State 6 29.9
65% 37 Texas A&M 48 29.9, 61 Southern Methodist 3 25.3
64% 200 Florida A&M 44 29.8, 198 Hampton 20 25.5
59% 147 Washington State 35 28.7, 171 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 27.2
59% 19 Missouri 24 33.3, 15 Arizona State 20 31.7
57% 9 Stanford 21 32.1, 6 Southern California 14 30.7
54% 56 Northwestern 22 24.5, 47 Boston College 13 24.1
51% 25 Florida 37 25.2, 41 Tennessee 20 25.0
50% 57 Ohio 27 30.7, 80 Marshall 24 30.7
47% 21 Notre Dame 20 21.8, 28 Michigan State 3 22.2
46% 99 Youngstown State 31 28.9, 73 Albany 24 29.9
45% 215 Saint Francis - Pennsy 57 33.7, 221 Morehead State 23 35.0
41% 184 Fordham 34 25.4, 154 Cornell 27 27.7
40% 201 Alabama State 19 23.0, 212 Grambling 18 24.3
40% 196 Indiana State 27 24.2, 169 Drake 10 26.7
40% 130 Ball State 41 31.4, 132 Indiana 39 34.1
40% 77 Connecticut 24 20.5, 88 Maryland 21 22.6
39% 205 Middle Tennessee State 48 26.4, 202 Memphis 30 30.4
38% 148 Towson 20 20.7, 112 William & Mary 17 23.6
38% 124 Lafayette 28 21.4, 89 Pennsylvania 21 24.8
37% 231 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 21.9, 230 Alcorn State 6 25.5
35% 225 Texas - San Antonio 38 30.1, 214 Georgia State 14 39.5
34% 185 McNeese State 35 25.1, 178 Weber State 21 30.8
32% 208 Murray State 28 28.7, 165 Missouri State 23 40.9
32% 117 California Poly 24 25.6, 98 Wyoming 22 33.2
28% 189 Eastern Kentucky 35 21.1, 151 Coastal Carolina 17 33.2
19% 136 The Citadel 52 21.0, 108 Appalachian State 28 32.7
19% 110 East Carolina 24 24.5, 50 Southern Mississippi 14 41.0
18% 244 Mississippi Valley Sta 6 21.1, 229 Southern 0 37.4
15% 131 Western Kentucky 32 16.8, 59 Kentucky 31 35.4
15% 81 Pittsburgh 35 17.0, 24 Virginia Tech 17 28.8
12% 100 Rutgers 23 11.3, 33 South Florida 13 31.5
11% 240 Howard 37 7.5, 166 Norfolk State 36 33.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.82 15 0.61 17 1.26 53 1.01 13 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111 87 87.0 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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