prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 59 Pittsburgh 55 44.3, 221 Gardner - Webb 10 5.6
92% 32 Mississippi State 30 47.9, 220 South Alabama 10 2.9
92% 29 Michigan State 23 40.0, 172 Eastern Michigan 7 4.6
92% 1 Alabama 40 57.4, 200 Florida Atlantic 7 0.0
91% 214 Marist 34 26.3, 239 Davidson 21 9.0
91% 97 Richmond 35 41.7, 234 Georgia State 14 12.2
91% 61 Georgia Southern 26 41.9, 181 Elon 23 12.3
91% 20 Nebraska 73 55.9, 217 Idaho State 7 3.6
91% 8 Ohio State 29 55.7, 180 Alabama - Birmingham 15 5.8
90% 188 San Diego 51 47.3, 246 Valparaiso 14 10.0
90% 115 Montana State 41 44.4, 224 Northern Colorado 16 14.1
90% 103 Arkansas State 56 47.1, 238 Alcorn State 0 8.7
90% 48 James Madison 32 34.7, 194 Rhode Island 7 10.6
90% 40 Virginia Tech 37 36.5, 132 Bowling Green 0 11.3
90% 35 Penn State 24 25.5, 68 Temple 13 13.4
89% 57 Ohio 44 39.4, 169 Norfolk State 10 11.9
88% 107 Navy 41 46.9, 237 Virginia Military 3 9.9
88% 34 Wisconsin 37 36.6, 122 Texas - El Paso 26 13.1
88% 17 Texas A&M 70 45.9, 176 South Carolina State 14 4.1
88% 15 Florida 38 39.2, 69 Kentucky 0 15.0
88% 10 Georgia 48 39.6, 46 Vanderbilt 3 17.7
88% 6 West Virginia 31 48.1, 82 Maryland 21 16.1
87% 127 Monmouth 27 34.4, 204 Sacred Heart 14 16.6
87% 52 Northwestern 38 39.5, 152 South Dakota 7 16.7
87% 47 North Dakota State 66 52.1, 235 Prairie View 7 2.1
87% 19 Texas Christian 27 38.0, 73 Virginia 7 16.5
87% 5 Florida State 49 35.8, 22 Clemson 37 20.5
86% 117 California Poly 28 34.0, 196 California - Davis 20 15.0
86% 95 Duke 38 46.8, 212 Memphis 14 20.7
86% 14 Boise State 7 38.4, 54 Brigham Young 6 16.6
85% 183 Northwestern State 45 34.7, 244 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 6.2
85% 177 Drake 28 38.0, 231 Morehead State 25 16.6
85% 75 Toledo 38 45.7, 184 Coastal Carolina 28 19.5
84% 120 Samford 25 39.5, 215 Western Carolina 21 21.8
84% 60 Tennessee 47 41.4, 136 Akron 26 21.3
84% 37 North Carolina 27 37.1, 89 East Carolina 6 21.5
83% 123 Miami - Ohio 27 32.9, 168 Massachusetts 16 19.1
83% 70 Northern Illinois 30 38.9, 138 Kansas 23 21.3
83% 13 Southern California 27 37.5, 31 California 9 23.3
82% 140 Furman 31 43.2, 223 Presbyterian 21 23.9
82% 94 Illinois State 23 39.5, 208 Western Illinois 3 21.5
82% 86 Mississippi 39 41.8, 213 Tulane 0 21.0
82% 71 North Carolina State 52 32.2, 119 The Citadel 14 19.3
81% 27 Arizona State 37 33.2, 44 Utah 7 20.2
81% 26 Baylor 47 45.2, 110 Northeast Louisiana 42 25.5
81% 2 Louisiana State 12 40.0, 43 Auburn 10 22.3
80% 201 Tennessee - Martin 31 29.4, 229 Austin Peay 6 19.1
80% 3 Oregon 49 47.0, 18 Arizona 0 29.0
79% 167 Florida A&M 24 33.0, 227 Delaware State 22 20.0
79% 12 South Carolina 31 28.9, 21 Missouri 10 20.7
78% 100 Wake Forest 49 33.6, 143 Army 37 22.2
77% 147 Towson 46 42.5, 203 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 27.6
77% 114 Lafayette 20 24.4, 173 Bucknell 14 16.3
76% 39 Louisville 28 32.9, 106 Florida International 21 22.3
75% 102 Utah State 31 29.5, 159 Colorado State 19 21.6
74% 16 Notre Dame 13 32.2, 28 Michigan 6 24.0
73% 126 Wyoming 40 31.9, 186 Idaho 37 23.2
72% 149 Duquesne 35 33.2, 209 Bryant 21 24.2
72% 81 Youngstown State 42 31.0, 101 Northern Iowa 35 23.4
70% 92 Marshall 54 37.7, 150 Rice 51 30.0
70% 91 Lehigh 28 28.4, 144 Liberty 26 23.1
69% 236 North Carolina Central 45 34.7, 245 Savannah State 33 25.7
69% 210 Alabama A&M 42 31.5, 232 Texas Southern 13 23.6
67% 77 Minnesota 17 31.0, 76 Syracuse 10 26.2
66% 171 Texas State - San Marc 41 33.3, 195 Stephen F. Austin 37 25.5
66% 113 Stony Brook 32 32.0, 130 Colgate 31 24.4
66% 64 Old Dominion 64 40.5, 85 New Hampshire 61 30.4
64% 228 Butler 35 31.7, 233 Campbell 14 25.2
63% 151 Southern Illinois 14 29.5, 197 Missouri State 6 24.8
63% 146 Eastern Washington 32 29.1, 175 Weber State 26 25.2
62% 137 North Dakota 35 35.1, 193 Sacramento State 13 28.2
61% 182 Eastern Illinois 50 39.5, 185 Murray State 49 35.3
61% 55 Nevada - Reno 69 37.8, 93 Hawaii 24 34.0
60% 154 Eastern Kentucky 51 26.9, 145 Jacksonville State 21 25.0
60% 84 Western Michigan 30 24.4, 74 Connecticut 24 22.8
60% 67 Tulsa 27 39.4, 63 Fresno State 26 36.3
60% 62 Harvard 45 26.0, 96 Brown 31 23.8
52% 166 Georgetown 21 22.3, 187 Princeton 20 22.0
52% 116 Appalachian State 34 29.8, 133 Tennessee - Chattanoog 17 29.3
51% 156 Southern Utah 49 35.5, 174 Portland State 42 35.3
51% 141 Central Arkansas 24 30.6, 118 Sam Houston State 20 30.4
44% 170 Fordham 20 23.6, 190 Columbia 13 24.7
39% 161 South Dakota State 24 21.3, 153 Indiana State 10 25.4
39% 158 Cornell 45 24.4, 125 Yale 6 27.8
39% 111 Western Kentucky 42 26.8, 78 Southern Mississippi 17 29.6
39% 99 Delaware 51 15.2, 112 William & Mary 21 16.7
39% 88 Albany 30 23.2, 90 Maine 20 27.3
38% 142 Troy State 14 29.5, 134 North Texas 7 33.4
34% 80 Louisiana Tech 52 25.9, 66 Illinois 24 31.3
33% 139 Dartmouth 13 20.7, 131 Holy Cross 10 24.9
32% 199 Wagner 31 22.0, 191 Central Connecticut 13 26.6
32% 192 New Mexico 27 29.9, 164 New Mexico State 14 37.8
30% 109 Villanova 24 20.5, 105 Pennsylvania 8 25.8
26% 163 Colorado 35 24.1, 128 Washington State 34 34.7
25% 157 Tennessee State 21 22.1, 148 Bethune - Cookman 14 30.0
24% 218 Southeast Missouri Sta 41 24.7, 165 Tennessee Tech 38 34.4
23% 135 Kent State 23 25.3, 108 Buffalo 7 34.1
23% 124 Ball State 31 24.2, 51 South Florida 27 35.4
22% 56 Rutgers 35 21.3, 38 Arkansas 26 32.1
22% 33 Miami - Florida 42 23.6, 25 Georgia Tech 36 33.4
21% 104 San Jose State 38 22.9, 50 San Diego State 34 36.9
20% 216 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 15.6, 207 Alabama State 21 23.4
19% 205 Jacksonville 21 19.6, 179 Dayton 17 29.2
19% 24 Kansas State 24 24.1, 4 Oklahoma 19 43.6
17% 225 Southeast Louisiana 25 19.8, 155 McNeese State 24 35.5
16% 242 Southern 28 15.5, 189 Jackson State 21 41.4
16% 72 Oregon State 27 14.6, 36 California - Los Angel 20 27.2
15% 198 Nevada - Las Vegas 38 19.0, 58 Air Force 35 43.3
11% 162 Central Michigan 32 11.5, 49 Iowa 31 37.6
10% 178 Northern Arizona 41 12.8, 87 Montana 31 36.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.57 25 0.93 21 0.76 45 0.97 12 1.01 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 81 84.9 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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