prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 122 William & Mary 35 39.6, 229 Georgia State 3 9.5
91% 2 Alabama 33 44.1, 77 Mississippi 14 8.1
90% 219 Howard 56 41.7, 245 Savannah State 9 16.9
90% 88 Lehigh 34 35.0, 168 Fordham 31 14.2
90% 43 Harvard 52 37.8, 140 Holy Cross 3 13.4
90% 31 North Carolina 66 46.7, 187 Idaho 0 11.4
90% 15 Texas Christian 24 32.2, 91 Southern Methodist 16 13.4
90% 4 Louisiana State 38 48.1, 119 Towson 22 7.9
88% 87 Georgia Southern 35 30.8, 125 Samford 16 17.4
88% 1 Oregon 51 58.9, 132 Washington State 26 12.5
87% 167 Tennessee State 40 27.9, 210 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 13 14.4
87% 66 Connecticut 24 34.1, 142 Buffalo 17 15.5
87% 24 Boise State 32 39.1, 160 New Mexico 29 11.0
87% 11 South Carolina 38 32.7, 79 Kentucky 17 15.0
86% 7 Georgia 51 43.5, 44 Tennessee 44 20.6
85% 201 Alabama A&M 38 29.9, 221 Grambling 17 17.8
85% 145 Duquesne 24 41.2, 211 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 21.7
85% 138 Furman 45 42.5, 209 Western Carolina 24 22.5
85% 89 Utah State 35 37.0, 159 Nevada - Las Vegas 13 19.5
85% 82 Air Force 42 39.7, 155 Colorado State 21 20.5
85% 57 Brigham Young 47 37.6, 118 Hawaii 0 19.8
85% 56 Ohio 37 37.2, 171 Massachusetts 34 18.0
85% 39 Purdue 51 41.1, 98 Marshall 41 23.0
85% 33 Nevada - Reno 34 47.2, 183 Texas State - San Marc 21 20.5
85% 3 Florida State 30 35.4, 55 South Florida 17 18.6
84% 207 Alabama State 54 28.4, 240 Alcorn State 14 16.5
84% 113 Sam Houston State 50 43.9, 239 Texas Southern 6 13.5
84% 104 Northeast Louisiana 63 36.6, 216 Tulane 10 18.6
84% 53 California - Los Angel 42 35.8, 151 Colorado 14 19.3
84% 52 Northwestern 44 39.9, 124 Indiana 29 20.6
82% 191 Eastern Illinois 65 46.2, 237 Austin Peay 15 25.5
82% 107 Appalachian State 55 40.2, 173 Coastal Carolina 14 22.4
81% 148 Bowling Green 48 30.9, 181 Rhode Island 8 19.3
80% 189 Jacksonville 26 27.1, 215 Marist 14 17.7
80% 170 Wagner 31 32.1, 212 Bryant 21 18.4
80% 73 Northern Illinois 55 43.9, 147 Central Michigan 24 25.4
80% 9 Texas A&M 58 50.2, 60 Arkansas 10 26.5
79% 195 Drake 35 34.5, 235 Campbell 7 21.2
79% 150 South Dakota State 17 29.7, 203 Missouri State 7 16.0
79% 74 Wofford 49 33.9, 152 Elon 24 22.7
78% 193 Sacramento State 54 35.3, 231 Idaho State 31 23.5
77% 62 Tulsa 49 41.9, 153 Alabama - Birmingham 42 26.7
76% 184 Jacksonville State 31 37.7, 217 Southeast Missouri Sta 16 25.4
76% 144 Northern Arizona 24 42.9, 198 Portland State 10 27.8
76% 129 Troy State 31 32.7, 208 South Alabama 10 21.2
76% 20 Texas Tech 24 34.6, 61 Iowa State 13 24.1
75% 218 Jackson State 34 39.4, 232 Prairie View 13 26.3
75% 106 Brown 37 28.5, 174 Georgetown 10 19.5
75% 100 East Carolina 28 32.1, 123 Texas - El Paso 18 23.4
74% 131 Eastern Kentucky 28 24.9, 180 Tennessee - Martin 16 19.2
74% 97 Illinois State 34 32.9, 165 South Dakota 31 23.5
74% 78 Albany 55 32.6, 120 Monmouth 24 19.4
74% 29 Miami - Florida 44 31.8, 40 North Carolina State 37 23.4
74% 18 Nebraska 30 35.4, 25 Wisconsin 27 25.4
72% 158 Bethune - Cookman 38 27.0, 214 Hampton 26 21.4
72% 45 Louisville 21 30.2, 99 Southern Mississippi 17 23.5
72% 37 Penn State 35 19.5, 76 Illinois 7 14.9
71% 96 Houston 35 48.3, 139 Rice 14 35.3
71% 13 West Virginia 70 47.7, 27 Baylor 63 35.0
69% 23 Clemson 45 28.4, 51 Boston College 31 23.2
68% 17 Ohio State 17 23.8, 36 Michigan State 16 19.9
66% 177 McNeese State 30 29.1, 176 Northwestern State 22 24.5
65% 68 Iowa 31 22.0, 64 Minnesota 13 18.8
64% 220 Southeast Louisiana 31 30.3, 243 Lamar 21 22.7
62% 206 Sacred Heart 34 29.2, 205 Central Connecticut 21 25.7
62% 178 Murray State 70 40.5, 192 Tennessee Tech 35 34.7
62% 50 Louisiana Tech 44 35.3, 85 Virginia 38 30.3
62% 21 Missouri 21 25.4, 35 Central Florida 16 22.8
61% 179 California - Davis 37 31.1, 185 Weber State 13 25.8
61% 128 Cornell 15 24.5, 166 Bucknell 10 22.1
61% 110 Kent State 45 27.3, 108 Ball State 43 24.8
61% 69 Fresno State 52 33.8, 67 San Diego State 40 29.9
61% 19 Arizona State 27 28.9, 32 California 17 25.7
60% 54 North Dakota State 33 27.4, 93 Northern Iowa 21 23.0
59% 190 South Carolina State 14 27.3, 172 Norfolk State 0 25.3
57% 134 Colgate 47 26.4, 161 Yale 24 25.2
56% 81 Old Dominion 45 37.7, 109 Richmond 37 35.4
55% 115 Stony Brook 23 34.9, 143 Army 3 33.1
54% 156 North Texas 20 26.4, 186 Florida Atlantic 14 25.5
51% 126 Louisiana - Lafayette 48 31.0, 111 Florida International 20 30.7
51% 116 Montana State 24 33.5, 141 Southern Utah 17 33.1
49% 112 California Poly 35 30.7, 137 North Dakota 17 31.0
48% 83 New Hampshire 34 33.6, 59 Delaware 14 34.2
47% 228 Presbyterian 28 28.3, 236 Davidson 13 29.1
47% 146 Miami - Ohio 56 28.0, 157 Akron 49 28.5
45% 136 Eastern Washington 32 26.8, 105 Montana 26 27.8
43% 92 San Jose State 12 29.8, 102 Navy 0 31.4
39% 175 Stephen F. Austin 42 31.9, 121 Central Arkansas 37 38.1
38% 202 Texas - San Antonio 35 28.6, 182 New Mexico State 14 35.1
38% 196 Princeton 33 20.8, 199 Columbia 6 23.6
38% 86 Toledo 37 32.0, 80 Western Michigan 17 36.9
37% 95 Duke 34 29.6, 90 Wake Forest 27 34.3
36% 164 Tennessee - Chattanoog 28 24.0, 154 The Citadel 10 29.9
34% 135 Pennsylvania 28 18.1, 127 Dartmouth 21 22.0
34% 12 Texas 41 35.6, 10 Oklahoma State 36 43.8
31% 42 Cincinnati 27 21.4, 26 Virginia Tech 24 26.3
30% 222 Butler 21 19.1, 197 Dayton 11 24.1
27% 41 Oregon State 38 19.9, 30 Arizona 35 27.2
26% 103 Western Kentucky 26 25.7, 84 Arkansas State 13 33.9
24% 101 Villanova 35 19.5, 94 Maine 14 24.8
23% 234 Morgan State 21 22.7, 226 North Carolina A&T 18 31.6
21% 230 Southern 21 19.8, 188 Florida A&M 14 33.9
19% 204 Robert Morris 31 16.7, 114 Lafayette 28 27.9
18% 58 Washington 17 18.0, 8 Stanford 13 33.4
15% 194 Indiana State 24 16.0, 149 Southern Illinois 3 28.6
12% 162 Middle Tennessee State 49 16.8, 34 Georgia Tech 28 48.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.99 25 0.94 31 1.11 34 1.03 3 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 81 78.2 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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