prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 160 Bethune - Cookman 28 35.3, 231 North Carolina A&T 12 9.4
90% 92 Lehigh 35 39.5, 210 Columbia 14 10.0
89% 142 Liberty 42 41.4, 228 Gardner - Webb 35 16.6
89% 24 Kansas State 56 44.5, 123 Kansas 16 14.6
88% 187 Alabama State 45 41.2, 238 Texas Southern 0 14.6
88% 76 New Hampshire 44 46.9, 226 Georgia State 21 16.3
88% 60 James Madison 13 31.8, 106 Towson 10 17.6
87% 197 Alabama A&M 35 29.8, 243 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 13.0
87% 110 Montana 40 39.8, 224 Northern Colorado 17 17.5
87% 71 Georgia Southern 45 44.0, 216 Western Carolina 13 16.4
87% 54 Central Florida 40 29.8, 99 East Carolina 20 16.7
87% 28 Harvard 45 44.4, 133 Cornell 13 14.3
87% 21 Wisconsin 31 39.4, 96 Illinois 14 14.6
87% 2 Oregon 52 50.3, 57 Washington 21 17.6
86% 186 Northwestern State 30 41.6, 242 Lamar 23 14.6
86% 115 Louisiana - Lafayette 41 44.0, 217 Tulane 13 18.0
86% 37 Brigham Young 6 30.9, 90 Utah State 3 14.9
85% 131 Samford 38 29.9, 171 The Citadel 7 18.8
85% 55 Louisiana Tech 58 50.4, 173 Nevada - Las Vegas 31 22.1
85% 47 Rutgers 19 22.7, 65 Connecticut 3 14.9
85% 46 Cincinnati 52 39.4, 134 Miami - Ohio 14 16.6
84% 195 Dayton 38 29.3, 241 Davidson 3 13.1
84% 104 Stony Brook 49 49.3, 240 Charleston Southern 7 7.6
84% 73 Houston 44 40.7, 151 North Texas 21 19.6
84% 30 Oregon State 19 44.0, 130 Washington State 6 16.4
84% 29 Penn State 39 27.6, 52 Northwestern 28 17.1
83% 220 Butler 56 38.4, 245 Valparaiso 17 18.1
83% 86 Brown 17 38.1, 204 Rhode Island 7 17.3
83% 85 Appalachian State 35 43.0, 158 Elon 23 22.4
82% 147 Holy Cross 13 21.9, 184 Bucknell 6 12.7
82% 139 Central Arkansas 34 43.2, 235 Nicholls State 14 11.3
82% 77 Wofford 20 39.1, 128 Furman 17 23.5
82% 74 Ohio 38 38.5, 132 Buffalo 31 22.0
81% 67 Toledo 50 47.0, 150 Central Michigan 35 24.4
80% 61 Albany 31 47.3, 212 Bryant 14 19.5
80% 41 Nevada - Reno 35 44.4, 109 Wyoming 28 25.3
79% 166 Murray State 52 47.2, 239 Austin Peay 14 24.2
79% 97 California Poly 45 37.5, 191 Weber State 23 22.8
79% 69 Fresno State 28 39.1, 165 Colorado State 7 23.6
79% 33 Michigan State 31 34.2, 121 Indiana 27 19.2
79% 19 Clemson 47 45.2, 68 Georgia Tech 31 25.8
79% 5 Texas A&M 30 42.5, 72 Mississippi 27 23.1
78% 205 Portland State 77 47.3, 233 Idaho State 10 28.9
78% 75 Maryland 19 33.0, 101 Wake Forest 14 23.0
78% 23 Boise State 40 34.4, 93 Southern Mississippi 14 21.1
78% 4 Florida 14 29.2, 10 Louisiana State 6 20.3
77% 102 Western Michigan 52 37.0, 146 Massachusetts 14 24.2
77% 83 San Diego State 52 43.9, 144 Hawaii 14 27.1
76% 234 Morgan State 45 37.3, 246 Savannah State 6 25.7
76% 118 Kent State 41 29.7, 178 Eastern Michigan 14 20.7
76% 25 North Carolina 48 28.9, 32 Virginia Tech 34 21.0
75% 159 Alabama - Birmingham 52 42.5, 215 Southeast Louisiana 3 26.6
75% 105 Sam Houston State 51 36.9, 154 Stephen F. Austin 43 27.1
75% 16 Stanford 54 35.2, 35 Arizona 48 24.5
74% 167 Fordham 38 27.6, 188 Georgetown 31 20.6
74% 162 Indiana State 31 28.6, 196 Missouri State 17 18.7
74% 125 Eastern Washington 55 33.8, 156 North Dakota 17 22.8
74% 18 Notre Dame 41 27.2, 36 Miami - Florida 3 21.2
74% 15 Southern California 38 26.4, 44 Utah 28 20.9
73% 180 Jacksonville 38 36.5, 227 Morehead State 17 25.9
71% 43 California 43 27.3, 50 California - Los Angel 17 22.3
71% 20 Ohio State 63 29.8, 22 Nebraska 38 24.4
70% 39 North Dakota State 48 34.4, 63 Youngstown State 7 24.3
69% 124 Bowling Green 24 36.9, 189 Akron 10 28.3
69% 80 Southern Methodist 17 28.3, 127 Texas - El Paso 0 22.5
69% 38 Mississippi State 27 30.0, 84 Kentucky 14 24.1
66% 157 New Mexico 35 32.3, 181 Texas State - San Marc 14 25.1
64% 170 Jacksonville State 37 37.8, 214 Tennessee Tech 28 31.3
64% 117 Montana State 48 27.7, 163 California - Davis 41 22.7
63% 207 Howard 17 28.2, 208 Florida A&M 10 24.2
63% 103 Arkansas State 34 31.3, 145 Florida International 20 26.7
63% 70 Northern Illinois 35 40.4, 113 Ball State 23 34.4
62% 200 Idaho 26 32.4, 201 New Mexico State 18 28.9
60% 140 Dartmouth 34 24.2, 177 Yale 14 22.1
60% 78 Northeast Louisiana 31 34.8, 111 Middle Tennessee State 17 31.7
58% 8 Oklahoma 41 33.1, 26 Texas Tech 20 31.3
55% 66 Tulsa 45 39.8, 95 Marshall 38 38.5
54% 9 South Carolina 35 33.3, 6 Georgia 7 32.5
53% 98 Duke 42 30.1, 87 Virginia 17 29.5
50% 219 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 34 24.3, 206 Jackson State 24 24.4
50% 193 Tennessee - Martin 51 30.7, 172 Eastern Illinois 37 30.7
49% 31 Michigan 44 31.4, 42 Purdue 13 31.6
47% 185 Drake 38 24.1, 153 San Diego 10 24.4
44% 169 Tennessee State 23 25.2, 135 Eastern Kentucky 20 26.0
44% 64 Temple 37 24.4, 49 South Florida 28 25.1
40% 182 Wagner 12 22.1, 194 Sacred Heart 3 23.4
38% 237 Virginia Military 17 23.2, 225 Presbyterian 7 29.1
38% 203 Memphis 14 29.8, 161 Rice 10 35.0
36% 82 Syracuse 14 23.6, 53 Pittsburgh 13 26.6
34% 209 Saint Francis - Pennsy 10 26.5, 179 Robert Morris 3 32.1
34% 12 West Virginia 48 31.8, 7 Texas 45 39.0
27% 232 Prairie View 31 24.9, 222 Grambling 14 32.9
27% 198 Western Illinois 24 17.3, 152 South Dakota 17 29.5
25% 183 Sacramento State 27 24.4, 149 Southern Utah 22 32.5
23% 122 William & Mary 34 16.6, 116 Pennsylvania 28 22.8
23% 108 Navy 28 23.2, 79 Air Force 21 34.4
23% 62 Arkansas 24 24.5, 34 Auburn 7 35.3
22% 174 Princeton 35 19.1, 138 Lafayette 14 29.1
21% 244 Alcorn State 20 19.0, 221 Southern 17 30.3
21% 120 Maine 26 18.6, 89 Delaware 3 29.1
21% 45 North Carolina State 17 22.0, 3 Florida State 16 37.0
19% 112 Richmond 28 18.7, 81 Villanova 17 29.4
15% 230 North Carolina Central 40 15.3, 168 South Carolina State 10 36.0
14% 164 Army 34 13.7, 58 Boston College 31 32.0
13% 229 Delaware State 20 12.6, 192 Norfolk State 17 28.2
11% 176 Southern Illinois 17 16.8, 100 Illinois State 0 35.7
11% 59 Vanderbilt 19 11.6, 14 Missouri 15 29.6
10% 56 Iowa State 37 10.9, 13 Texas Christian 23 30.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.67 18 1.12 37 0.96 41 0.97 1 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 79 81.8 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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