prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 210 Florida A&M 44 45.9, 246 Savannah State 3 8.0
91% 147 Eastern Kentucky 45 44.5, 241 Austin Peay 14 7.9
91% 96 California Poly 56 44.4, 224 Northern Colorado 28 10.4
91% 95 Northeast Louisiana 35 37.5, 194 Florida Atlantic 14 14.3
91% 28 Harvard 35 41.0, 185 Bucknell 7 3.4
91% 8 Florida State 51 36.0, 71 Boston College 7 9.9
90% 99 Arkansas State 36 40.3, 209 South Alabama 29 13.5
90% 68 James Madison 27 24.5, 117 William & Mary 26 11.3
89% 16 Michigan 45 39.4, 93 Illinois 0 13.1
88% 174 Dayton 41 39.4, 232 Morehead State 27 15.8
88% 154 Drake 35 50.6, 245 Valparaiso 21 9.1
88% 101 East Carolina 41 37.0, 197 Memphis 7 14.7
87% 229 Southern 34 33.3, 240 Texas Southern 7 17.4
87% 121 Sam Houston State 41 38.8, 234 Nicholls State 0 14.7
87% 78 Ohio 34 45.5, 191 Akron 28 18.8
87% 45 Rutgers 23 25.7, 75 Syracuse 15 14.8
87% 32 Cincinnati 49 46.1, 159 Fordham 17 14.3
87% 20 Arizona State 51 43.1, 144 Colorado 17 15.6
86% 167 Jacksonville 34 37.6, 243 Davidson 24 11.3
86% 62 San Diego State 38 41.0, 161 Colorado State 14 17.6
85% 196 San Diego 44 39.3, 235 Campbell 0 18.1
85% 126 Pennsylvania 24 35.3, 204 Columbia 20 15.5
85% 57 Northern Illinois 45 41.0, 129 Buffalo 3 21.3
85% 50 Central Florida 38 33.8, 106 Southern Mississippi 31 18.9
85% 5 Florida 31 26.9, 53 Vanderbilt 17 10.1
84% 171 The Citadel 45 36.7, 217 Western Carolina 31 21.9
84% 54 Tulsa 33 43.2, 136 Texas - El Paso 11 21.3
84% 17 Boise State 20 40.6, 61 Fresno State 10 19.3
84% 9 Oklahoma State 20 54.2, 133 Kansas 14 22.2
84% 1 Alabama 42 29.8, 25 Missouri 10 15.9
83% 39 Arkansas 49 37.9, 94 Kentucky 7 20.3
82% 114 Bowling Green 37 30.5, 139 Miami - Ohio 12 19.2
82% 76 Albany 36 45.1, 211 Saint Francis - Pennsy 13 13.6
82% 64 Toledo 52 46.3, 195 Eastern Michigan 47 22.9
82% 47 Nevada - Reno 42 46.0, 170 Nevada - Las Vegas 37 23.3
82% 14 Ohio State 52 46.5, 120 Indiana 49 21.5
81% 142 Liberty 56 39.4, 230 Presbyterian 7 21.0
81% 84 Lehigh 17 34.5, 183 Georgetown 14 19.0
80% 59 Georgia Southern 17 32.4, 82 Wofford 9 21.3
80% 37 Virginia Tech 41 38.5, 72 Duke 20 23.1
80% 29 California 31 36.4, 119 Washington State 17 19.6
78% 166 California - Davis 52 47.3, 242 Idaho State 45 18.7
77% 169 Tennessee State 40 31.0, 220 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 21.9
77% 127 Colgate 51 29.9, 141 Holy Cross 35 22.0
77% 73 Houston 39 42.2, 122 Alabama - Birmingham 17 28.2
77% 15 Southern California 24 32.6, 52 Washington 14 22.4
75% 12 Texas A&M 59 49.0, 58 Louisiana Tech 57 32.3
74% 138 South Dakota State 31 25.1, 180 Western Illinois 10 13.7
74% 105 Stony Brook 27 37.3, 192 Coastal Carolina 21 23.7
74% 21 Wisconsin 38 36.5, 74 Purdue 14 25.1
73% 77 New Hampshire 44 34.8, 98 Richmond 40 26.5
71% 86 Navy 31 36.1, 149 Central Michigan 13 26.6
68% 173 Sacramento State 19 33.8, 188 Weber State 14 27.6
68% 36 Mississippi State 41 30.5, 43 Tennessee 31 25.2
67% 7 Notre Dame 20 29.1, 13 Stanford 13 23.4
66% 6 Louisiana State 23 24.6, 3 South Carolina 21 21.0
63% 69 Maryland 27 25.5, 109 Virginia 20 22.9
63% 23 North Carolina 18 33.0, 51 Miami - Florida 14 28.3
63% 4 Oklahoma 63 32.4, 10 Texas 21 28.3
62% 110 Kent State 31 26.6, 131 Army 17 24.1
62% 24 Kansas State 27 30.3, 42 Iowa State 21 26.7
61% 214 Hampton 28 23.6, 207 Norfolk State 14 21.5
61% 172 Rice 34 32.4, 177 Texas - San Antonio 14 27.9
61% 66 Mississippi 41 25.7, 56 Auburn 20 23.5
60% 140 Northern Arizona 45 27.9, 175 North Dakota 38 25.5
59% 146 Cornell 41 28.2, 135 Monmouth 38 26.6
57% 91 Eastern Washington 27 33.4, 116 Montana State 24 31.8
55% 198 Texas State - San Marc 38 27.7, 186 Idaho 7 26.5
53% 213 North Carolina Central 24 29.0, 225 Morgan State 20 28.4
53% 200 Bryant 38 24.0, 189 Robert Morris 35 23.4
53% 107 Towson 24 24.3, 87 Maine 19 23.8
52% 83 Appalachian State 28 27.5, 108 Samford 25 27.2
49% 203 Missouri State 27 27.1, 184 South Dakota 24 27.3
47% 157 Lafayette 20 25.9, 181 Yale 10 26.3
47% 63 Northwestern 21 28.4, 81 Minnesota 13 28.9
46% 60 Temple 17 22.5, 70 Connecticut 14 23.1
45% 150 Central Arkansas 27 25.4, 168 McNeese State 26 26.6
45% 92 Air Force 28 28.5, 103 Wyoming 27 29.4
43% 134 Middle Tennessee State 34 28.3, 145 Florida International 30 30.0
43% 88 Utah State 49 21.6, 102 San Jose State 27 22.3
41% 67 California - Los Angel 21 24.9, 46 Utah 14 26.4
40% 26 Texas Christian 49 38.1, 27 Baylor 21 42.4
39% 239 Charleston Southern 32 23.9, 236 Virginia Military 14 26.3
39% 190 Eastern Illinois 31 34.9, 152 Jacksonville State 28 38.8
38% 137 Illinois State 35 27.5, 104 Youngstown State 28 30.8
38% 123 Ball State 30 30.8, 89 Western Michigan 24 34.5
38% 118 Western Kentucky 31 24.7, 124 Troy State 26 27.4
37% 221 Delaware State 31 20.1, 205 South Carolina State 17 22.9
37% 38 Texas Tech 49 35.6, 11 West Virginia 14 42.9
35% 128 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 22.9, 125 Furman 10 28.8
35% 100 Villanova 38 30.4, 80 Old Dominion 14 39.0
34% 228 Southeast Louisiana 27 27.4, 201 Northwestern State 22 34.5
34% 40 Oregon State 42 15.9, 41 Brigham Young 24 20.0
33% 233 North Carolina A&T 38 18.5, 216 Howard 10 22.6
33% 156 New Mexico 35 27.9, 143 Hawaii 23 34.6
32% 132 Southern Illinois 34 18.0, 85 Northern Iowa 31 23.5
31% 215 Butler 17 18.9, 218 Marist 14 22.6
30% 179 Tennessee - Martin 66 28.6, 155 Murray State 59 37.0
29% 202 Central Connecticut 38 23.6, 153 Duquesne 31 29.2
29% 48 Louisville 45 19.7, 49 Pittsburgh 35 23.5
24% 148 Princeton 19 18.2, 97 Brown 0 25.7
22% 226 Georgia State 41 20.4, 193 Rhode Island 7 34.8
21% 244 Mississippi Valley Sta 45 16.2, 231 Grambling 21 26.3
18% 208 Jackson State 37 19.4, 182 Alabama State 34 30.0
17% 44 Iowa 19 15.5, 33 Michigan State 16 23.3
15% 164 Southern Utah 30 20.7, 112 Montana 20 38.2
15% 151 Indiana State 17 8.1, 22 North Dakota State 14 43.6
13% 222 Tulane 27 9.0, 79 Southern Methodist 26 36.0
12% 206 Sacred Heart 27 12.9, 130 Dartmouth 10 30.2
9% 238 Alcorn State 21 11.5, 187 Alabama A&M 20 38.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
17 0.85 28 0.67 17 0.86 40 1.00 8 0.96 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 72 81.2 0.89
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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