prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 83 Lehigh 42 30.9, 189 Bucknell 19 7.4
92% 13 Boise State 32 48.2, 152 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 7.5
91% 94 Delaware 47 37.8, 222 Rhode Island 24 8.0
91% 68 Villanova 49 34.3, 209 Georgia State 24 11.3
91% 57 Central Florida 35 39.0, 208 Memphis 17 12.7
91% 15 Southern California 50 48.2, 143 Colorado 6 11.0
91% 2 Oklahoma 52 52.5, 113 Kansas 7 4.7
90% 181 Dayton 45 52.9, 245 Valparaiso 0 10.5
89% 168 Drake 34 28.0, 221 Marist 27 12.3
89% 153 Bethune - Cookman 48 31.5, 218 Norfolk State 3 14.0
89% 47 Louisiana Tech 70 55.9, 199 Idaho 28 20.9
89% 9 Wisconsin 38 40.6, 86 Minnesota 13 11.4
88% 198 Jackson State 14 39.5, 242 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 15.3
88% 107 Sam Houston State 45 34.1, 176 McNeese State 10 17.8
88% 93 Eastern Washington 31 35.9, 180 Sacramento State 28 16.1
88% 8 Notre Dame 17 30.4, 50 Brigham Young 14 10.6
87% 104 Stony Brook 41 44.5, 226 Gardner - Webb 10 13.5
87% 64 Utah State 41 44.0, 201 New Mexico State 7 13.8
87% 34 Mississippi State 45 41.5, 136 Middle Tennessee State 3 15.2
87% 17 Ohio State 29 45.7, 81 Purdue 22 19.8
87% 12 Michigan 12 32.5, 39 Michigan State 10 16.2
86% 171 Stephen F. Austin 44 47.0, 237 Nicholls State 10 20.2
86% 144 Central Arkansas 24 45.0, 235 Lamar 14 12.8
86% 141 Texas - El Paso 24 34.5, 206 Tulane 20 18.5
86% 52 Tulsa 28 43.6, 142 Rice 24 21.0
86% 51 North Dakota State 54 37.4, 185 South Dakota 0 11.9
86% 41 Northern Illinois 37 45.2, 184 Akron 7 19.8
85% 1 Alabama 44 40.4, 44 Tennessee 13 16.6
84% 77 Air Force 28 39.3, 147 New Mexico 23 21.1
84% 18 Georgia 29 42.2, 123 Kentucky 24 18.9
83% 72 Fresno State 42 33.5, 108 Wyoming 14 21.7
83% 61 Pittsburgh 20 35.4, 157 Buffalo 6 18.7
83% 60 Georgia Southern 38 32.3, 148 Furman 17 19.1
83% 14 Oklahoma State 31 38.2, 38 Iowa State 10 21.6
83% 4 Florida State 33 33.0, 46 Miami - Florida 20 18.7
79% 214 Butler 39 35.7, 229 Morehead State 35 23.0
79% 160 Elon 42 42.1, 216 Western Carolina 31 26.3
79% 129 Colgate 57 37.2, 178 Georgetown 36 23.5
79% 98 California Poly 37 44.9, 163 Portland State 25 27.6
78% 28 Oregon State 21 28.5, 42 Utah 7 19.4
77% 187 Coastal Carolina 34 34.4, 241 Virginia Military 7 15.3
77% 124 Brown 21 29.4, 140 Cornell 14 20.8
77% 36 Arizona 52 35.6, 59 Washington 17 25.1
76% 177 Wagner 31 25.6, 212 Saint Francis - Pennsy 24 19.5
76% 65 Georgia Tech 37 33.9, 74 Boston College 17 25.4
75% 137 Eastern Kentucky 42 35.8, 210 Tennessee Tech 28 25.8
75% 130 Northern Arizona 21 36.3, 162 California - Davis 7 24.4
75% 128 Indiana State 23 26.7, 194 Western Illinois 7 18.6
75% 19 Clemson 38 36.7, 26 Virginia Tech 17 26.7
74% 125 San Jose State 52 32.8, 203 Texas - San Antonio 24 21.6
74% 27 Texas 56 48.2, 53 Baylor 50 34.5
73% 7 Florida 44 24.3, 6 South Carolina 11 18.6
72% 224 Northern Colorado 52 48.0, 238 Idaho State 14 31.3
72% 151 Jacksonville State 31 30.5, 161 Tennessee State 28 24.0
72% 145 Lafayette 30 27.3, 154 Holy Cross 13 21.4
72% 99 Bowling Green 24 30.1, 159 Massachusetts 0 23.2
72% 43 Louisville 27 29.8, 48 South Florida 25 23.6
71% 87 East Carolina 42 33.0, 146 Alabama - Birmingham 35 25.5
71% 73 Navy 31 38.5, 109 Indiana 30 28.2
70% 103 Northern Iowa 27 30.1, 132 South Dakota State 6 21.1
70% 3 Oregon 43 42.7, 21 Arizona State 21 32.0
69% 164 Duquesne 35 26.5, 172 Sacred Heart 3 21.1
69% 133 Troy State 38 33.0, 149 Florida International 37 25.0
66% 230 Prairie View 52 29.3, 232 Alcorn State 37 24.2
66% 175 Tennessee - Martin 27 37.3, 220 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 29.0
65% 58 Vanderbilt 17 24.6, 63 Auburn 13 20.7
63% 75 Syracuse 40 20.8, 70 Connecticut 10 18.6
62% 215 Delaware State 24 24.1, 217 North Carolina A&T 0 21.3
62% 118 Ball State 41 34.9, 156 Central Michigan 30 29.9
62% 110 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 23.6, 127 Samford 13 18.2
61% 234 Charleston Southern 31 32.8, 236 Presbyterian 21 27.5
61% 231 Howard 21 25.8, 228 Morgan State 20 23.2
61% 37 North Carolina State 20 26.4, 67 Maryland 18 23.4
60% 33 Nebraska 29 31.8, 56 Northwestern 28 28.5
58% 197 Robert Morris 37 28.6, 186 Central Connecticut 31 26.3
58% 20 Stanford 21 29.7, 31 California 3 27.8
57% 96 Richmond 35 24.8, 79 James Madison 29 23.5
56% 84 Northeast Louisiana 43 27.7, 119 Western Kentucky 42 26.7
54% 169 Dartmouth 21 22.3, 192 Columbia 16 21.6
53% 205 South Alabama 37 27.5, 193 Florida Atlantic 34 26.6
48% 106 Kent State 41 24.6, 90 Western Michigan 24 25.0
43% 78 New Hampshire 28 28.6, 89 Maine 21 30.2
43% 5 Louisiana State 24 31.9, 10 Texas A&M 19 33.7
42% 219 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 50 20.2, 225 Southern 21 21.7
42% 112 Old Dominion 31 33.5, 111 Towson 20 37.1
41% 85 Wake Forest 16 25.8, 97 Virginia 10 27.6
41% 45 Rutgers 35 21.1, 54 Temple 10 22.8
41% 23 Kansas State 55 34.1, 25 West Virginia 14 37.5
40% 223 North Carolina Central 37 24.4, 200 Hampton 20 28.2
39% 71 Toledo 29 34.7, 30 Cincinnati 23 40.7
37% 32 Penn State 38 17.8, 40 Iowa 14 19.8
36% 244 Davidson 28 24.1, 240 Campbell 21 31.1
35% 179 San Diego 24 25.1, 170 Jacksonville 7 29.6
35% 16 Texas Tech 56 26.7, 11 Texas Christian 53 32.8
34% 191 Eastern Michigan 48 27.9, 139 Army 38 34.4
33% 69 San Diego State 39 32.2, 49 Nevada - Reno 38 40.6
32% 101 Southern Methodist 72 25.5, 66 Houston 42 31.6
31% 182 North Dakota 40 27.7, 115 Montana 34 36.1
30% 183 Yale 27 20.5, 131 Pennsylvania 13 25.8
30% 166 North Texas 30 26.6, 116 Louisiana - Lafayette 23 33.3
30% 114 Marshall 59 30.6, 92 Southern Mississippi 24 39.1
27% 120 Southern Illinois 38 23.4, 105 Youngstown State 21 30.1
24% 207 South Carolina State 27 19.6, 202 Florida A&M 20 25.8
24% 88 Wofford 38 24.2, 76 Appalachian State 28 31.8
23% 195 Bryant 27 25.8, 138 Monmouth 24 41.0
18% 196 Weber State 24 20.9, 135 Southern Utah 22 35.7
18% 91 Duke 33 21.9, 22 North Carolina 30 37.8
16% 134 Princeton 39 15.9, 35 Harvard 34 34.9
15% 188 Missouri State 24 19.0, 117 Illinois State 17 36.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 0.77 23 0.87 31 1.08 31 1.02 8 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109 80 81.1 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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