prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 215 Hampton 21 46.2, 246 Savannah State 13 9.4
92% 96 Sam Houston State 56 42.7, 233 Lamar 7 12.3
92% 86 James Madison 28 42.0, 216 Georgia State 21 11.2
91% 211 Northwestern State 27 34.1, 238 Nicholls State 26 14.3
91% 3 Oregon 70 62.7, 146 Colorado 14 9.7
91% 1 Alabama 38 36.6, 22 Mississippi State 7 10.2
90% 203 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 10 34.1, 243 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 10.6
90% 115 Montana 70 59.1, 244 Idaho State 24 12.8
90% 6 Florida State 48 45.0, 72 Duke 7 14.9
89% 189 South Carolina State 41 31.9, 232 Howard 23 11.4
89% 127 Bethune - Cookman 42 40.6, 221 North Carolina Central 17 16.0
89% 78 Southern Methodist 44 41.0, 202 Memphis 13 14.6
89% 57 Vanderbilt 49 36.2, 177 Massachusetts 7 10.5
89% 8 Stanford 24 44.2, 120 Washington State 17 10.1
88% 75 Wofford 24 36.9, 154 The Citadel 21 17.2
88% 30 Missouri 33 35.1, 95 Kentucky 10 15.4
88% 14 Boise State 45 37.1, 125 Wyoming 14 12.6
87% 212 Marist 44 42.4, 245 Valparaiso 7 14.3
87% 64 San Diego State 24 42.8, 164 Nevada - Las Vegas 13 19.7
86% 106 Stony Brook 56 44.4, 236 Presbyterian 17 11.7
86% 104 Bowling Green 24 37.3, 181 Eastern Michigan 3 18.6
85% 92 Northeast Louisiana 38 45.5, 200 South Alabama 24 21.7
85% 68 New Hampshire 40 45.9, 214 Rhode Island 20 20.0
85% 48 Louisiana Tech 28 55.0, 208 New Mexico State 14 24.2
84% 100 San Jose State 31 35.6, 179 Texas State - San Marc 20 18.0
84% 90 Appalachian State 38 46.7, 220 Western Carolina 27 22.9
84% 21 Texas 21 41.9, 119 Kansas 17 21.4
83% 66 Utah State 48 42.7, 204 Texas - San Antonio 17 19.2
83% 46 Harvard 31 38.3, 163 Dartmouth 14 17.6
83% 19 South Carolina 38 34.7, 47 Tennessee 35 20.9
82% 172 Wagner 23 24.5, 190 Robert Morris 13 16.2
82% 124 Indiana State 45 34.9, 199 South Dakota 14 17.9
81% 65 Fresno State 49 36.6, 160 New Mexico 32 21.4
81% 34 North Dakota State 23 33.5, 107 Southern Illinois 17 12.3
81% 16 Clemson 42 37.4, 76 Wake Forest 13 21.4
80% 129 Northern Arizona 12 32.8, 217 Northern Colorado 10 18.0
80% 52 Pittsburgh 47 27.5, 74 Temple 17 17.9
79% 219 Butler 31 30.0, 241 Davidson 20 18.8
79% 170 Tennessee State 22 38.9, 207 Tennessee Tech 21 25.6
78% 63 Toledo 25 39.7, 151 Buffalo 20 23.8
77% 81 Houston 45 44.7, 142 Texas - El Paso 35 27.6
77% 80 Albany 23 32.7, 201 Sacred Heart 20 14.7
77% 41 Northern Illinois 48 34.1, 105 Western Michigan 34 24.3
76% 152 Central Michigan 35 37.5, 194 Akron 14 26.7
76% 116 Montana State 55 39.1, 158 North Dakota 10 27.1
76% 54 Georgia Southern 39 26.4, 111 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 18.3
76% 13 Texas A&M 63 35.0, 53 Auburn 21 24.5
75% 229 Morehead State 70 41.6, 242 Campbell 28 28.6
75% 225 Gardner - Webb 38 30.8, 239 Virginia Military 7 17.7
75% 168 San Diego 41 24.5, 180 Dayton 9 18.5
75% 159 Central Arkansas 34 36.2, 226 Southeast Louisiana 14 22.2
74% 165 Missouri State 42 30.1, 206 Western Illinois 3 17.7
73% 222 Southeast Missouri Sta 48 33.8, 237 Austin Peay 27 25.4
73% 186 Central Connecticut 32 40.4, 213 Saint Francis - Pennsy 30 29.2
72% 31 North Carolina 43 28.7, 40 North Carolina State 35 22.4
72% 7 Kansas State 55 45.3, 24 Texas Tech 24 31.6
69% 121 Colgate 47 33.2, 187 Bucknell 33 25.7
69% 9 Oklahoma State 36 41.0, 17 Texas Christian 14 31.2
66% 145 Jacksonville State 38 43.2, 176 Murray State 35 34.0
65% 112 Ball State 30 34.4, 149 Army 22 28.9
65% 58 Northwestern 28 27.0, 60 Iowa 17 22.9
64% 82 Boston College 20 23.7, 70 Maryland 17 21.1
61% 227 North Carolina A&T 30 20.4, 223 Norfolk State 9 18.5
61% 197 Alabama State 31 23.3, 209 Alabama A&M 13 20.6
61% 50 Utah 49 22.1, 38 California 27 19.9
60% 157 Middle Tennessee State 38 28.4, 148 North Texas 21 25.5
59% 103 Arkansas State 50 33.4, 128 Louisiana - Lafayette 27 30.7
59% 93 Old Dominion 31 35.4, 88 Delaware 26 31.3
59% 45 Louisville 34 27.7, 36 Cincinnati 31 25.2
58% 224 Prairie View 49 32.0, 230 Southern 29 29.4
58% 218 Delaware State 28 24.3, 228 Morgan State 23 22.6
58% 137 South Dakota State 41 28.1, 132 Youngstown State 28 25.5
55% 114 Western Kentucky 14 32.0, 139 Florida International 6 30.4
55% 32 Nebraska 23 29.2, 20 Michigan 9 28.0
54% 171 Colorado State 42 29.3, 147 Hawaii 27 28.4
53% 61 Central Florida 54 31.6, 85 Marshall 17 31.0
50% 135 Rice 44 30.9, 122 Southern Mississippi 17 30.9
50% 23 Arizona 39 32.7, 12 Southern California 36 32.8
49% 136 Cornell 37 25.7, 123 Princeton 35 25.9
48% 99 Minnesota 44 26.1, 69 Purdue 28 26.4
47% 73 Navy 56 28.3, 91 East Carolina 28 28.9
47% 15 Ohio State 35 25.6, 25 Penn State 23 26.1
45% 51 Iowa State 35 33.0, 42 Baylor 21 34.4
43% 169 Portland State 49 30.2, 184 California - Davis 21 32.4
43% 141 Furman 31 30.6, 156 Elon 17 32.5
42% 87 Air Force 48 33.1, 56 Nevada - Reno 31 35.9
40% 198 McNeese State 35 30.4, 150 Stephen F. Austin 24 34.1
40% 195 Tulane 55 29.0, 153 Alabama - Birmingham 45 32.8
40% 182 Coastal Carolina 36 29.3, 130 Liberty 12 33.2
40% 101 Maine 24 20.2, 113 William & Mary 10 22.0
38% 192 Columbia 26 19.6, 162 Yale 22 22.2
38% 144 Pennsylvania 20 19.1, 109 Brown 17 22.1
38% 43 Brigham Young 41 26.3, 44 Georgia Tech 17 30.8
37% 240 Texas Southern 23 26.4, 231 Grambling 20 31.0
34% 167 Fordham 36 24.0, 161 Holy Cross 32 29.0
31% 155 Southern Utah 30 25.2, 110 Eastern Washington 27 30.8
30% 118 Indiana 31 26.8, 97 Illinois 17 34.4
29% 193 Florida Atlantic 34 26.0, 126 Troy State 27 34.4
27% 55 Syracuse 37 23.0, 49 South Florida 36 29.2
26% 62 Mississippi 30 26.9, 27 Arkansas 27 36.5
25% 178 Sacramento State 35 25.2, 108 California Poly 29 34.3
25% 71 Washington 20 21.4, 28 Oregon State 17 29.4
25% 18 Georgia 17 24.9, 4 Florida 9 35.1
24% 143 Miami - Ohio 23 25.0, 79 Ohio 20 33.9
22% 166 Monmouth 28 20.7, 134 Duquesne 27 31.1
21% 188 Eastern Illinois 24 25.1, 138 Eastern Kentucky 7 38.1
20% 140 Illinois State 33 17.3, 84 Northern Iowa 21 33.7
19% 185 Georgetown 20 19.3, 133 Lafayette 17 32.1
18% 117 Towson 49 19.0, 83 Villanova 35 30.1
17% 59 California - Los Angel 45 19.3, 26 Arizona State 43 33.2
13% 35 Michigan State 16 15.2, 10 Wisconsin 13 32.1
13% 11 Notre Dame 30 16.0, 2 Oklahoma 13 36.7
9% 98 Kent State 35 12.5, 33 Rutgers 23 30.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
22 0.90 19 0.82 30 0.88 32 0.99 10 0.99 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 113 77 83.5 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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