prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 226 Norfolk State 33 38.0, 245 Savannah State 21 9.6
92% 85 Sam Houston State 70 47.1, 228 Southeast Louisiana 0 10.9
92% 14 Ohio State 52 40.3, 99 Illinois 22 10.8
90% 113 Brown 20 26.1, 163 Yale 0 12.6
90% 94 Richmond 39 42.5, 209 Rhode Island 0 15.8
90% 56 Louisiana Tech 51 54.5, 203 Texas - San Antonio 27 21.4
90% 53 Navy 24 43.7, 181 Florida Atlantic 17 15.4
90% 46 Harvard 69 44.8, 193 Columbia 0 10.9
89% 79 Kent State 35 40.5, 202 Akron 24 14.4
89% 65 Auburn 42 41.3, 198 New Mexico State 7 11.3
89% 55 Utah State 38 41.7, 182 Texas State - San Marc 7 14.6
89% 43 Northern Illinois 63 48.0, 178 Massachusetts 0 15.8
89% 6 Notre Dame 29 30.7, 39 Pittsburgh 26 12.3
88% 166 Stephen F. Austin 40 48.2, 237 Lamar 26 18.7
88% 30 Utah 49 37.9, 108 Washington State 6 15.1
88% 12 Georgia 37 40.4, 64 Mississippi 10 17.1
87% 161 Liberty 26 44.8, 233 Charleston Southern 12 16.3
87% 121 Marshall 38 43.3, 210 Memphis 28 21.2
87% 101 Stony Brook 45 47.0, 242 Virginia Military 7 3.8
87% 93 Ohio 45 39.3, 189 Eastern Michigan 14 18.6
87% 13 Stanford 48 43.5, 147 Colorado 0 14.2
86% 217 Alabama A&M 24 33.0, 234 Southern 23 17.5
86% 187 McNeese State 42 30.9, 232 Nicholls State 10 15.6
86% 148 Northern Arizona 50 46.0, 239 Idaho State 10 17.8
86% 45 Louisville 45 35.4, 92 Temple 17 18.4
86% 37 Tennessee 55 47.3, 142 Troy State 48 18.7
86% 7 Florida 14 29.5, 23 Missouri 7 13.3
84% 104 Northern Iowa 40 32.4, 218 Western Illinois 0 13.6
83% 134 Bethune - Cookman 24 37.7, 229 Morgan State 13 17.9
83% 71 New Hampshire 28 35.9, 122 William & Mary 25 21.3
83% 68 Fresno State 45 46.4, 162 Hawaii 10 24.0
82% 60 South Florida 13 29.7, 84 Connecticut 6 19.0
82% 42 Central Florida 42 32.7, 76 Southern Methodist 17 20.0
82% 15 Clemson 56 42.7, 87 Duke 20 23.6
82% 5 Oklahoma 35 31.2, 44 Iowa State 20 16.3
81% 212 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 49 29.6, 240 Texas Southern 3 17.2
81% 131 Youngstown State 13 42.3, 204 South Dakota 10 23.9
80% 105 San Jose State 42 37.1, 196 Idaho 13 23.2
79% 222 Morehead State 49 41.2, 241 Davidson 14 24.6
79% 77 Arkansas State 37 35.6, 167 North Texas 19 22.7
78% 146 Central Arkansas 35 38.8, 216 Northwestern State 14 19.9
78% 78 Lehigh 36 31.7, 157 Holy Cross 35 21.3
78% 50 Baylor 41 43.5, 106 Kansas 14 28.4
78% 48 North Dakota State 21 33.0, 141 Missouri State 17 17.4
78% 32 Arkansas 19 40.1, 67 Tulsa 15 25.9
77% 86 Old Dominion 53 45.4, 207 Georgia State 27 25.7
77% 83 Montana State 20 33.7, 159 Sacramento State 17 24.0
77% 38 Cincinnati 35 33.9, 57 Syracuse 24 23.9
76% 170 Eastern Kentucky 31 28.4, 215 Southeast Missouri Sta 7 20.4
76% 133 Wyoming 45 30.4, 158 Colorado State 31 23.3
76% 114 Tennessee - Chattanoog 45 39.0, 211 Western Carolina 24 21.7
76% 110 Montana 24 35.6, 184 Weber State 21 25.5
75% 28 Penn State 34 29.8, 80 Purdue 9 21.6
75% 24 Michigan 35 29.4, 74 Minnesota 13 21.4
73% 160 Coastal Carolina 55 33.3, 223 Gardner - Webb 33 22.1
73% 155 The Citadel 38 31.4, 173 Elon 24 24.4
73% 119 Rice 49 36.9, 192 Tulane 47 27.3
73% 118 Colgate 65 36.7, 143 Lafayette 41 27.3
73% 52 Vanderbilt 40 26.0, 97 Kentucky 0 20.7
72% 205 Jackson State 53 30.0, 230 Grambling 17 22.5
70% 183 Alabama State 35 32.3, 220 Prairie View 21 25.3
69% 10 Texas A&M 38 35.7, 26 Mississippi State 13 27.8
69% 2 Oregon 62 42.5, 16 Southern California 51 32.4
67% 115 Eastern Washington 34 34.6, 124 California Poly 17 28.3
62% 165 Nevada - Las Vegas 35 31.3, 169 New Mexico 7 27.3
62% 1 Alabama 21 24.3, 3 Louisiana State 17 21.2
61% 174 Murray State 49 37.3, 180 Tennessee State 28 32.2
61% 140 Florida International 28 31.5, 197 South Alabama 20 25.5
60% 185 Bryant 34 29.8, 190 Sacred Heart 14 25.4
60% 41 Miami - Florida 30 26.2, 29 Virginia Tech 12 23.9
60% 36 Oregon State 36 29.8, 33 Arizona State 26 26.8
60% 9 Kansas State 44 38.5, 8 Oklahoma State 30 34.0
59% 172 Eastern Illinois 31 34.2, 201 Tennessee Tech 24 31.3
58% 103 Western Michigan 42 32.7, 132 Central Michigan 31 30.4
54% 243 Mississippi Valley Sta 33 21.6, 236 Alcorn State 9 21.1
52% 221 North Carolina A&T 16 22.1, 206 Florida A&M 3 21.8
51% 90 Wake Forest 28 21.4, 72 Boston College 14 21.3
49% 191 Bucknell 27 26.5, 164 Fordham 24 26.8
48% 227 North Carolina Central 23 26.1, 219 Delaware State 20 26.7
48% 19 Texas Christian 39 32.2, 34 West Virginia 38 32.8
47% 152 Buffalo 27 22.9, 130 Miami - Ohio 24 23.4
45% 200 Dayton 28 23.4, 171 Drake 13 24.2
44% 177 Tennessee - Martin 49 27.9, 149 Jacksonville State 47 29.5
43% 126 Pennsylvania 28 24.0, 136 Princeton 21 25.5
43% 66 Georgia Tech 33 28.1, 73 Maryland 13 29.8
43% 22 Texas 31 35.5, 35 Texas Tech 22 37.9
41% 117 Illinois State 17 25.4, 120 Indiana State 10 27.9
41% 47 California - Los Angel 66 32.2, 21 Arizona 10 36.3
40% 231 Howard 20 22.6, 224 Hampton 10 25.0
40% 123 East Carolina 48 38.2, 75 Houston 28 44.6
39% 20 Nebraska 28 19.7, 25 Michigan State 24 21.7
36% 194 North Dakota 33 26.5, 138 Southern Utah 29 32.4
34% 107 Indiana 24 26.1, 54 Iowa 21 32.8
34% 100 Towson 34 25.4, 89 Delaware 27 31.3
33% 125 South Dakota State 16 19.9, 112 Southern Illinois 12 26.9
32% 145 Dartmouth 44 23.1, 135 Cornell 28 28.5
32% 58 Washington 21 23.9, 51 California 13 29.5
30% 127 Samford 24 21.1, 81 Wofford 17 25.5
28% 246 Valparaiso 41 28.7, 244 Campbell 21 42.6
26% 225 Butler 19 21.8, 188 Jacksonville 16 29.0
25% 195 Robert Morris 17 21.0, 137 Duquesne 13 26.3
24% 176 Alabama - Birmingham 27 29.2, 128 Southern Mississippi 19 42.1
24% 150 Louisiana - Lafayette 40 28.2, 102 Northeast Louisiana 24 40.1
23% 95 James Madison 31 17.3, 82 Maine 7 23.7
21% 175 Wagner 30 13.2, 88 Albany 0 32.1
21% 151 Middle Tennessee State 34 21.4, 116 Western Kentucky 29 31.7
21% 91 Appalachian State 31 25.0, 62 Georgia Southern 28 37.3
20% 154 Army 41 22.5, 63 Air Force 21 37.0
17% 214 Northern Colorado 32 20.6, 144 Portland State 28 38.6
14% 98 Virginia 33 16.8, 40 North Carolina State 6 34.7
11% 69 San Diego State 21 14.7, 11 Boise State 19 41.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
18 0.60 18 0.87 34 0.93 36 1.03 5 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111 77 82.8 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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