prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 201 South Carolina State 27 44.8, 246 Savannah State 13 6.1
92% 129 Southern Illinois 35 31.7, 215 Western Illinois 0 9.3
92% 17 Boise State 42 45.5, 148 Colorado State 14 6.7
92% 2 Alabama 49 63.2, 217 Western Carolina 0 0.0
91% 47 Harvard 34 39.9, 169 Yale 24 10.7
91% 22 Nebraska 38 36.2, 76 Minnesota 14 14.6
91% 13 Notre Dame 38 36.1, 91 Wake Forest 0 8.2
91% 3 Louisiana State 41 44.9, 77 Mississippi 35 10.0
90% 19 South Carolina 24 36.7, 93 Wofford 7 10.8
90% 16 Florida 23 48.1, 161 Jacksonville State 0 6.2
89% 182 McNeese State 35 39.2, 233 Lamar 0 15.5
89% 109 Brown 22 31.3, 184 Columbia 6 13.0
88% 170 San Diego 17 36.6, 244 Davidson 10 10.9
88% 124 Liberty 33 39.3, 234 Virginia Military 14 12.3
88% 83 Maine 55 34.9, 210 Rhode Island 6 14.0
88% 64 Auburn 51 42.1, 220 Alabama A&M 7 4.5
88% 24 Penn State 45 43.0, 140 Indiana 22 13.4
88% 4 Florida State 41 37.6, 90 Maryland 14 13.0
87% 23 Michigan 42 33.0, 57 Iowa 17 16.8
86% 218 Morehead State 76 50.1, 245 Valparaiso 24 21.9
86% 213 Marist 28 35.6, 243 Campbell 7 17.9
86% 8 Georgia 45 44.3, 67 Georgia Southern 14 17.7
86% 5 Texas A&M 47 48.7, 69 Sam Houston State 28 20.0
85% 34 Arizona State 46 47.0, 131 Washington State 7 21.6
85% 12 Clemson 62 40.0, 46 North Carolina State 48 20.2
84% 89 Northern Iowa 38 32.8, 158 Missouri State 13 16.6
84% 81 Navy 21 42.9, 181 Texas State - San Marc 10 21.1
83% 206 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 42 33.8, 227 Prairie View 41 20.8
83% 177 Jackson State 37 38.0, 237 Alcorn State 11 19.2
83% 156 Bethune - Cookman 21 30.3, 212 Florida A&M 16 17.8
83% 31 Oregon State 62 30.2, 56 California 14 19.3
82% 130 Coastal Carolina 41 44.7, 229 Charleston Southern 20 15.7
81% 118 South Dakota State 31 31.6, 190 South Dakota 8 14.9
81% 41 Washington 38 37.4, 134 Colorado 3 20.9
80% 191 Weber State 40 47.8, 241 Idaho State 14 26.7
80% 73 Nevada - Reno 31 45.3, 202 New Mexico 24 25.2
79% 193 Stephen F. Austin 34 41.1, 225 Northwestern State 17 26.5
79% 112 Albany 63 39.2, 195 Central Connecticut 34 19.6
79% 105 Air Force 21 38.1, 152 Hawaii 7 24.4
79% 101 East Carolina 28 42.1, 204 Tulane 23 25.3
79% 30 Georgia Tech 42 47.8, 94 Duke 24 27.2
78% 100 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 37.1, 155 Western Kentucky 27 23.9
78% 35 Northern Illinois 31 42.4, 74 Toledo 24 27.6
78% 7 Oklahoma State 59 51.6, 39 Texas Tech 21 31.5
77% 183 Murray State 42 43.4, 222 Southeast Missouri Sta 35 28.7
77% 133 Northeast Louisiana 42 31.5, 162 North Texas 16 23.2
77% 86 Pennsylvania 35 33.1, 173 Cornell 28 21.4
77% 27 Virginia Tech 30 24.3, 70 Boston College 23 18.0
76% 122 Youngstown State 27 30.0, 145 Indiana State 6 21.5
76% 114 Tennessee - Chattanoog 24 32.8, 175 Elon 17 18.3
76% 113 Wyoming 28 32.1, 178 Nevada - Las Vegas 23 23.3
75% 43 Miami - Florida 40 31.7, 55 South Florida 9 23.1
72% 111 Eastern Washington 41 41.2, 189 Portland State 34 30.4
71% 143 Central Arkansas 48 34.8, 174 Eastern Illinois 30 24.4
71% 119 Kentucky 34 24.9, 121 Samford 3 20.6
71% 61 Iowa State 51 25.5, 108 Kansas 23 20.3
69% 232 Gardner - Webb 21 36.4, 240 Presbyterian 15 25.1
69% 216 Hampton 27 27.5, 235 Morgan State 17 21.4
68% 147 Middle Tennessee State 20 33.4, 203 South Alabama 12 25.7
67% 42 Tulsa 23 30.8, 48 Central Florida 21 25.0
66% 136 Wagner 23 27.4, 146 Duquesne 17 21.9
65% 106 Colgate 41 39.9, 163 Fordham 39 31.7
65% 103 Lehigh 38 29.3, 153 Lafayette 21 24.0
65% 6 Oklahoma 50 39.6, 33 West Virginia 49 31.1
62% 198 Saint Francis - Pennsy 44 31.9, 207 Sacred Heart 24 27.0
62% 66 Arkansas State 41 37.2, 120 Troy State 34 31.5
62% 62 North Dakota State 38 27.5, 117 Illinois State 20 21.0
61% 95 Ball State 52 30.3, 104 Ohio 27 26.0
61% 40 Vanderbilt 41 34.8, 50 Tennessee 18 29.8
60% 224 Southeast Louisiana 35 31.7, 238 Nicholls State 16 25.5
60% 97 Temple 63 26.5, 125 Army 32 23.7
59% 185 Tennessee - Martin 35 32.3, 188 Tennessee State 26 28.7
59% 116 California Poly 42 28.9, 157 Northern Arizona 34 26.1
58% 149 Central Michigan 30 31.9, 141 Miami - Ohio 16 29.3
58% 37 Mississippi State 45 27.6, 32 Arkansas 14 25.4
54% 214 North Carolina A&T 22 21.5, 226 North Carolina Central 16 20.3
54% 187 California - Davis 34 27.1, 166 Sacramento State 27 26.0
54% 186 Bucknell 24 21.9, 165 Bryant 21 20.5
54% 72 Purdue 20 24.7, 98 Illinois 17 23.9
51% 45 North Carolina 37 32.4, 63 Virginia 13 32.1
49% 239 Mississippi Valley Sta 34 22.4, 242 Texas Southern 3 22.6
49% 144 Florida International 34 26.2, 159 Florida Atlantic 24 26.6
49% 85 Richmond 21 22.3, 115 William & Mary 14 22.4
47% 154 Holy Cross 24 24.9, 167 Georgetown 0 25.6
47% 137 Buffalo 29 24.1, 160 Massachusetts 19 24.6
46% 128 Marshall 44 34.9, 99 Houston 41 36.4
45% 230 Howard 41 27.6, 221 Delaware State 34 29.2
45% 82 Montana State 16 30.6, 110 Montana 7 32.0
44% 194 Texas - San Antonio 34 31.4, 197 Idaho 27 34.2
43% 205 Northern Colorado 28 28.5, 172 North Dakota 27 31.8
43% 168 Drake 32 26.0, 180 Jacksonville 29 28.1
43% 60 Utah State 48 37.2, 65 Louisiana Tech 41 40.4
42% 79 Villanova 41 23.6, 96 Delaware 10 25.5
40% 142 Dartmouth 35 22.3, 150 Princeton 21 24.9
39% 88 Old Dominion 38 29.6, 78 James Madison 28 35.6
39% 26 California - Los Angel 38 30.1, 10 Southern California 28 35.7
37% 36 Baylor 52 33.7, 14 Kansas State 24 40.5
35% 87 Kent State 31 22.3, 92 Bowling Green 24 26.2
34% 176 Monmouth 26 22.7, 179 Robert Morris 21 27.2
34% 44 Arizona 34 27.6, 38 Utah 24 34.1
33% 15 Ohio State 21 28.2, 9 Wisconsin 14 36.6
31% 138 Rice 36 24.9, 75 Southern Methodist 14 32.9
27% 139 Texas - El Paso 34 24.5, 123 Southern Mississippi 33 32.1
26% 102 Towson 64 28.2, 71 New Hampshire 35 38.3
24% 84 San Jose State 20 20.3, 29 Brigham Young 14 30.7
23% 236 Austin Peay 38 26.9, 199 Tennessee Tech 31 41.3
22% 196 Memphis 46 23.4, 151 Alabama - Birmingham 9 35.8
22% 164 The Citadel 42 23.7, 132 Furman 20 34.8
20% 51 Syracuse 31 22.0, 21 Missouri 27 37.0
20% 11 Stanford 17 28.1, 1 Oregon 14 48.1
18% 58 Northwestern 23 19.1, 28 Michigan State 20 30.5
15% 192 Eastern Michigan 29 21.4, 107 Western Michigan 23 41.8
14% 54 Rutgers 10 16.1, 25 Cincinnati 3 28.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
23 0.79 23 0.95 30 0.96 28 1.05 9 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 113 80 82.6 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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