prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 1 Alabama 49 36.6, 46 Auburn 0 9.6
90% 59 Central Florida 49 42.7, 199 Alabama - Birmingham 24 12.5
90% 43 Brigham Young 50 39.3, 207 New Mexico State 14 8.3
89% 58 Utah State 45 45.6, 197 Idaho 9 16.2
89% 28 Virginia Tech 17 33.6, 76 Virginia 14 14.6
88% 74 Toledo 35 48.3, 204 Akron 23 18.0
87% 40 Utah 42 35.6, 154 Colorado 35 15.4
87% 39 Northern Illinois 49 42.4, 165 Eastern Michigan 7 18.0
86% 100 Louisiana - Lafayette 52 41.7, 203 South Alabama 30 19.0
86% 52 Northwestern 50 31.3, 97 Illinois 14 17.7
85% 38 Cincinnati 27 29.0, 65 South Florida 10 16.8
84% 89 Houston 40 50.2, 201 Tulane 17 24.5
84% 34 North Carolina 45 36.7, 84 Maryland 38 20.1
81% 35 Vanderbilt 55 28.3, 98 Wake Forest 21 17.1
80% 57 Fresno State 48 36.2, 96 Air Force 15 23.2
80% 25 Miami - Florida 52 38.9, 103 Duke 45 21.4
79% 146 Colorado State 24 32.4, 190 New Mexico 20 21.7
79% 75 Purdue 56 43.0, 137 Indiana 35 26.4
79% 8 Georgia 42 41.8, 33 Georgia Tech 10 26.0
78% 10 Texas A&M 59 39.9, 31 Missouri 29 25.6
77% 148 Western Kentucky 25 30.9, 166 North Texas 24 23.0
77% 143 Hawaii 48 33.3, 175 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 22.7
77% 127 South Dakota State 58 36.4, 196 Eastern Illinois 10 19.4
77% 108 Bowling Green 21 26.6, 145 Buffalo 7 19.6
77% 48 North Carolina State 27 32.1, 69 Boston College 10 21.7
77% 37 Michigan State 26 24.7, 93 Minnesota 10 16.9
77% 4 Louisiana State 20 37.3, 47 Arkansas 13 24.2
76% 56 San Diego State 42 32.6, 113 Wyoming 28 23.8
76% 23 Nebraska 13 28.9, 60 Iowa 7 21.1
75% 88 Ball State 31 32.7, 147 Miami - Ohio 24 24.6
75% 62 Tennessee 37 35.1, 79 Kentucky 17 25.7
74% 12 Ohio State 26 34.4, 21 Michigan 21 25.4
70% 5 Stanford 35 30.6, 32 California - Los Angel 17 22.2
68% 95 Kent State 28 32.8, 111 Ohio 6 26.0
66% 22 Baylor 52 47.6, 55 Texas Tech 45 36.3
65% 2 Oregon 48 37.8, 19 Oregon State 24 30.1
64% 106 East Carolina 65 35.7, 119 Marshall 59 30.2
58% 53 Pittsburgh 27 20.5, 42 Rutgers 6 19.2
57% 228 Southern 38 28.9, 231 Grambling 33 27.2
57% 30 West Virginia 31 35.6, 44 Iowa State 24 32.7
57% 7 Oklahoma 51 39.8, 3 Oklahoma State 48 37.0
54% 193 Texas - San Antonio 38 30.2, 178 Texas State - San Marc 31 28.6
54% 136 Central Michigan 42 28.2, 161 Massachusetts 21 27.2
54% 50 Syracuse 38 30.7, 63 Temple 20 29.5
53% 141 Middle Tennessee State 24 32.3, 129 Troy State 21 31.4
50% 112 Northeast Louisiana 23 28.1, 133 Florida International 17 28.3
48% 87 San Jose State 52 36.0, 67 Louisiana Tech 43 36.7
47% 115 Rice 33 31.5, 130 Texas - El Paso 24 32.6
45% 27 Arizona State 41 32.9, 36 Arizona 34 34.5
44% 157 Memphis 42 28.3, 128 Southern Mississippi 24 30.6
44% 142 Wagner 31 29.5, 109 Colgate 20 31.3
43% 24 Penn State 24 22.1, 11 Wisconsin 21 23.8
41% 149 Coastal Carolina 24 27.2, 152 Bethune - Cookman 14 31.9
41% 9 Notre Dame 22 24.9, 15 Southern California 13 27.4
38% 16 South Carolina 27 29.3, 18 Clemson 17 35.0
32% 118 Stony Brook 20 22.2, 61 Villanova 10 29.9
31% 64 Mississippi 41 25.7, 26 Mississippi State 24 32.7
23% 20 Texas Christian 20 22.7, 17 Texas 13 31.2
21% 107 Southern Methodist 35 19.8, 45 Tulsa 27 31.0
20% 131 Washington State 31 20.3, 41 Washington 28 35.9
16% 66 Connecticut 23 17.8, 54 Louisville 20 27.4
15% 13 Florida 37 17.0, 6 Florida State 26 28.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
17 0.85 8 0.94 20 1.16 15 0.93 2 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 62 45 44.9 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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