prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 29 Oregon State 77 56.4, 239 Nicholls State 3 0.0
86% 26 West Virginia 59 48.5, 121 Kansas 10 21.9
85% 4 Stanford 27 37.9, 44 California - Los Angel 24 16.1
84% 110 Hawaii 23 41.9, 201 South Alabama 7 19.4
84% 76 Arkansas State 45 37.7, 145 Middle Tennessee State 0 21.5
83% 68 Georgia Southern 24 39.0, 132 Central Arkansas 16 21.3
80% 105 Eastern Washington 29 29.9, 134 Wagner 19 19.9
80% 35 Northern Illinois 44 33.0, 75 Kent State 37 21.5
80% 12 Florida State 21 37.7, 47 Georgia Tech 15 23.7
79% 46 North Dakota State 28 31.2, 91 South Dakota State 3 16.5
78% 1 Alabama 32 28.4, 5 Georgia 28 20.3
75% 81 Sam Houston State 18 38.5, 112 California Poly 16 28.4
75% 16 Boise State 27 39.4, 66 Nevada - Reno 21 27.1
74% 82 Old Dominion 63 44.2, 141 Coastal Carolina 35 28.1
72% 107 Louisiana - Lafayette 35 37.7, 180 Florida Atlantic 21 27.8
71% 22 Kansas State 42 30.0, 19 Texas 24 24.2
66% 183 San Diego 34 21.7, 213 Marist 10 18.2
65% 190 Texas State - San Marc 66 33.6, 202 New Mexico State 28 25.5
65% 92 Montana State 16 29.2, 102 Stony Brook 10 22.8
65% 33 Cincinnati 34 21.7, 59 Connecticut 17 18.7
62% 93 Wofford 23 34.4, 97 New Hampshire 7 29.1
62% 14 Wisconsin 70 28.9, 20 Nebraska 31 24.6
59% 36 Pittsburgh 27 23.7, 65 South Florida 3 21.5
53% 57 Tulsa 33 30.6, 45 Central Florida 27 29.6
51% 8 Oklahoma 24 29.9, 13 Texas Christian 17 29.8
41% 18 Baylor 41 43.4, 7 Oklahoma State 34 49.8
24% 63 Louisville 20 18.7, 58 Rutgers 17 23.1
20% 126 Illinois State 38 24.5, 84 Appalachian State 37 37.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.35 6 1.56 10 1.18 7 1.03 1 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 28 25 20.4 1.22
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net