prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 76 Navy 17 34.9, 144 Army 13 22.3
76% 45 North Dakota State 14 26.5, 73 Wofford 7 14.1
64% 110 Eastern Washington 51 33.5, 113 Illinois State 35 28.5
42% 88 Sam Houston State 34 23.9, 97 Montana State 16 26.1
42% 72 Georgia Southern 49 34.2, 77 Old Dominion 35 38.3
30% 208 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 24.0, 187 Jackson State 21 30.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 1 1.56 2 0.68 1 1.24 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 6 3 4.1 0.74
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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