prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 1 Alabama 42 25.8, 9 Notre Dame 14 15.1
83% 25 Arizona State 62 34.3, 83 Navy 28 18.6
83% 10 Oklahoma State 58 47.1, 67 Purdue 14 24.7
82% 16 Boise State 28 32.2, 56 Washington 26 18.8
80% 29 Virginia Tech 13 22.7, 53 Rutgers 10 16.2
79% 32 Cincinnati 48 39.7, 97 Duke 34 24.4
78% 12 Florida State 31 36.3, 41 Northern Illinois 10 23.5
77% 55 Central Florida 38 34.6, 98 Ball State 17 24.6
77% 7 Georgia 45 37.7, 34 Nebraska 31 24.8
76% 2 Oregon 35 44.7, 17 Kansas State 17 30.7
74% 48 Texas Tech 34 37.8, 88 Minnesota 31 27.7
73% 13 South Carolina 33 28.4, 22 Michigan 28 22.3
71% 33 Vanderbilt 38 28.6, 44 North Carolina State 24 22.5
66% 87 San Jose State 29 25.5, 107 Bowling Green 20 21.4
66% 65 Arkansas State 17 31.3, 90 Kent State 13 25.8
65% 47 North Dakota State 23 27.7, 60 Georgia Southern 20 21.0
65% 38 Arizona 49 40.9, 66 Nevada - Reno 48 33.3
62% 24 Baylor 49 40.7, 43 California - Los Angel 26 34.2
60% 47 North Dakota State 39 25.5, 69 Sam Houston State 13 20.4
59% 36 Brigham Young 23 28.6, 62 San Diego State 6 25.9
57% 103 Ohio 45 28.4, 112 Northeast Louisiana 14 26.6
57% 64 Utah State 41 34.2, 72 Toledo 15 31.5
55% 69 Sam Houston State 45 32.2, 100 Eastern Washington 42 30.7
55% 21 Texas 31 28.8, 23 Oregon State 27 27.7
52% 132 Central Michigan 24 30.0, 138 Western Kentucky 21 29.4
51% 54 Tulsa 31 26.6, 52 Iowa State 17 26.2
51% 6 Stanford 20 30.1, 8 Wisconsin 14 29.9
46% 108 Louisiana - Lafayette 43 35.4, 99 East Carolina 34 36.8
45% 11 Texas A&M 41 35.6, 4 Oklahoma 13 37.4
41% 46 Northwestern 34 26.2, 37 Mississippi State 20 28.9
39% 124 Rice 33 28.1, 94 Air Force 14 33.5
29% 63 Mississippi 38 24.0, 35 Pittsburgh 17 30.2
28% 19 Clemson 25 25.4, 3 Louisiana State 24 34.1
26% 84 Southern Methodist 43 24.9, 57 Fresno State 10 32.5
24% 28 Michigan State 17 18.0, 18 Texas Christian 16 24.0
23% 58 Syracuse 38 28.0, 20 West Virginia 14 39.7
23% 42 Georgia Tech 21 25.5, 15 Southern California 7 35.6
13% 50 Louisville 33 14.5, 5 Florida 23 32.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.32 7 1.35 15 0.79 5 0.95 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 38 27 26.0 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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