7 Jan 2014: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2013 season

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  6   8 17.2  1.8 Florida State            127 16   0 13.7  1.1 Furman                  
  2 17   7 16.7  1.7 Oregon                   128 39   0 13.7  1.3 Missouri State          
  3  7   7 16.7  2.6 North Dakota State       129 35   0 13.7  1.1 Southern Methodist      
  4 14   7 16.4  1.3 Ohio State               130 24   0 13.7  1.2 Lafayette               
  5 50   6 16.3  1.5 Oklahoma                 131 42   0 13.7  1.2 Samford                 
  6 29   7 16.4  0.6 Texas A&M                132 60   0 13.6  1.1 Butler                  
  7  9   6 16.3  1.3 Oklahoma State           133 53   0 13.6  1.0 Albany                  
  8  9   6 16.2  2.1 South Carolina           134 18   0 13.6  1.6 Eastern Kentucky        
  9 16   7 16.4  0.6 Baylor                   135 39   0 13.6  1.3 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 10 14   6 16.2  1.4 Clemson                  136 40   0 13.6  1.1 Alabama State           
 11 10   6 16.1  2.1 Alabama                  137 25   0 13.6  0.9 Holy Cross              
 12 26   6 16.0  1.3 Harvard                  138 **   0 13.5  1.3 Abilene Christian       
 13 28   5 15.9  2.0 Louisiana State          139 39   0 13.5  1.0 Western Kentucky        
 14 24   5 15.8  1.6 Missouri                 140 19   0 13.5  0.7 Colgate                 
 15 37   5 15.8  1.8 Kansas State             141 63   0 13.6 -0.6 Stephen F. Austin       
 16 37   5 15.7  1.4 Georgia                  142 37   0 13.5  1.3 Yale                    
 17 45   5 15.7  1.3 North Carolina           143 48   0 13.5  0.8 Temple                  
 18 22   5 15.6  1.4 Central Florida          144 38   0 13.5  1.0 Bryant                  
 19 63   5 15.6  1.4 California - Los Angeles 145 29   0 13.5  1.1 Kentucky                
 20 19   4 15.5  2.1 Louisville               146 82   0 13.4  1.6 North Carolina A&T      
 21 28   4 15.4  1.7 Wisconsin                147 32   0 13.4  1.6 Northern Arizona        
 22 49   4 15.5  1.0 Sam Houston State        148 58   0 13.4  1.3 North Texas             
 23 33   4 15.4  1.1 Texas Tech               149 39   0 13.4  1.1 Kent State              
 24 54   4 15.3  1.9 Stanford                 150 38   0 13.5  0.3 Washington State        
 25 38   4 15.3  1.2 Arizona                  151 22   0 13.4  0.7 Jackson State           
 26 45   4 15.3  1.3 Auburn                   152 32   0 13.4  1.1 The Citadel             
 27 26   4 15.2  1.3 Georgia Southern         153 36   0 13.4  0.9 Virginia                
 28 25   4 15.2  1.3 Arizona State            154 33   0 13.4  0.8 Tulsa                   
 29 19   3 15.1  2.5 Michigan State           155 39   0 13.4  0.9 Ohio                    
 30 60   3 15.1  2.0 Notre Dame               156 63   0 13.4  1.1 Connecticut             
 31 37   4 15.2  1.6 Nebraska                 157 38   0 13.4  0.3 Cornell                 
 32 59   3 15.1  1.9 Southern California      158 43   0 13.4 -0.1 Troy State              
 33 60   3 15.1  2.0 Mississippi State        159 51   0 13.4  0.2 Portland State          
 34 35   4 15.2  1.3 Towson                   160 62   0 13.3  1.5 Robert Morris           
 35 48   4 15.1  1.4 Washington               161 27   0 13.4  0.3 Murray State            
 36 66   3 15.1  1.2 Oregon State             162 64   0 13.3  1.2 Texas - San Antonio     
 37 53   3 15.1  1.7 Texas Christian          163 53   0 13.4  0.0 California              
 38 57   3 15.2  0.6 Eastern Illinois         164 43   0 13.3  1.7 South Carolina State    
 39 30   3 15.0  1.9 Texas                    165 48   0 13.3 -0.4 Prairie View            
 40 34   3 15.0  1.3 Montana                  166 33   0 13.3  0.4 Colorado                
 41 39   3 15.0  1.8 Villanova                167 62   0 13.3  1.0 South Alabama           
 42 23   3 15.0  1.4 Boise State              168 25   0 13.2  0.4 Wyoming                 
 43 51   3 15.1 -0.1 Old Dominion             169 43   0 13.2  0.6 Purdue                  
 44 57   3 14.9  1.6 Mississippi              170 46   0 13.2  1.5 Southern Utah           
 45 35   3 14.9  1.0 Eastern Washington       171 55  -1 13.2  0.7 Central Michigan        
 46 24   3 14.9  1.3 Georgia Tech             172 31  -1 13.2  0.2 Central Connecticut     
 47 25   3 14.9  1.2 Northern Illinois        173 31  -1 13.2 -0.1 Hawaii                  
 48 37   3 14.9  1.5 Vanderbilt               174 41  -1 13.1  0.7 Rice                    
 49 48   3 14.8  1.4 Michigan                 175 44  -1 13.1  1.2 South Florida           
 50 57   3 14.9  1.2 Youngstown State         176 **  -1 13.1  1.3 Mercer                  
 51 51   3 14.8  0.6 Coastal Carolina         177 26  -1 13.1  0.8 Sacramento State        
 52 32   3 14.8  1.2 Lehigh                   178 53  -1 13.1  1.1 Middle Tennessee State  
 53 26   3 14.8  0.9 East Carolina            179 57  -1 13.1 -0.2 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
 54 47   2 14.7  1.0 Princeton                180 34  -1 13.0  1.4 Wake Forest             
 55 31   2 14.7  1.5 New Hampshire            181 42  -1 13.0  0.8 Northwestern State      
 56 21   2 14.6  2.0 Utah State               182 40  -1 13.0  1.7 Bucknell                
 57 35   2 14.6  1.8 Maine                    183 34  -1 13.0  1.1 Tennessee - Martin      
 58 23   2 14.6  1.8 James Madison            184 45  -1 13.0  0.8 Buffalo                 
 59 28   2 14.6  2.0 Brigham Young            185 59  -1 13.0  0.5 Southern                
 60 33   2 14.7  0.5 Fresno State             186 17  -1 13.0  0.9 Georgetown              
 61 50   2 14.6  1.8 Penn State               187 62  -1 13.0  0.6 North Dakota            
 62 42   2 14.6  1.5 San Diego                188 28  -1 13.0  0.9 Northeast Louisiana     
 63 25   2 14.7  0.6 Houston                  189 51  -1 12.9  1.5 California - Davis      
 64 25   2 14.6  1.2 Miami - Florida          190 37  -1 12.9  0.5 Louisiana Tech          
 65 38   2 14.6  1.5 Utah                     191 52  -1 12.9  1.1 Florida Atlantic        
 66 30   2 14.5  2.2 Iowa                     192 **  -1 12.9  1.2 North Carolina - Charlot
 67 28   2 14.6  1.3 Jacksonville State       193 26  -1 12.9  1.0 Kansas                  
 68 35   2 14.5  2.0 Northern Iowa            194 48  -1 12.9  1.0 South Dakota            
 69 19   2 14.5  1.5 Richmond                 195 17  -1 12.9 -0.0 New Mexico              
 70 54   2 14.5  1.2 Northwestern             196 48  -1 12.9  0.8 Howard                  
 71 40   2 14.5  0.9 Delaware                 197 15  -1 12.9  0.4 Tennessee Tech          
 72 35   2 14.5  1.1 Montana State            198 31  -1 12.9  0.4 Air Force               
 73 40   2 14.4  1.7 South Dakota State       199 56  -1 12.8  0.4 Alcorn State            
 74 60   2 14.5  0.8 Fordham                  200 25  -1 12.8  0.6 Elon                    
 75 42   2 14.5  0.5 Duke                     201 62  -1 12.8  1.0 Texas State - San Marcos
 76 39   2 14.4  1.8 Brown                    202 63  -2 12.8  0.7 Hampton                 
 77 71   2 14.4  2.2 Florida                  203 76  -2 12.7  0.7 Lamar                   
 78 45   2 14.5  0.6 Marshall                 204 43  -2 12.7  0.5 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 79 33   2 14.4  1.8 Stony Brook              205 36  -2 12.7  0.5 Army                    
 80 26   2 14.4  1.5 Liberty                  206 26  -2 12.7  1.0 Memphis                 
 81 66   2 14.4  1.3 Pittsburgh               207 19  -2 12.7  0.5 Akron                   
 82 34   2 14.3  1.5 Cincinnati               208 28  -2 12.6  0.3 Western Michigan        
 83 52   2 14.4  0.6 West Virginia            209 28  -2 12.6  1.2 Western Illinois        
 84 45   1 14.4  0.8 San Diego State          210 51  -2 12.6  1.2 Delaware State          
 85 26   1 14.3  1.4 California Poly          211 49  -2 12.6  1.1 Florida A&M             
 86 42   1 14.3  1.4 Syracuse                 212 28  -2 12.5  1.5 Wagner                  
 87 57   1 14.3  1.1 Central Arkansas         213 49  -2 12.6  0.9 Tulane                  
 88 29   1 14.2  1.4 Navy                     214 14  -2 12.5  0.8 Indiana State           
 89 26   1 14.2  2.4 William & Mary           215 50  -2 12.5  1.0 North Carolina Central  
 90 59   1 14.3  0.0 Indiana                  216 61  -2 12.5  1.0 Charleston Southern     
 91 56   1 14.2  1.0 Tennessee                217 49  -2 12.4  1.5 Norfolk State           
 92 36   1 14.2  1.5 Sacred Heart             218 16  -3 12.4 -0.5 Alabama - Birmingham    
 93 30   1 14.1  2.0 Virginia Tech            219 18  -3 12.3  0.7 Northern Colorado       
 94 43   1 14.1  1.5 Duquesne                 220 32  -3 12.2  1.2 Gardner - Webb          
 95 46   1 14.1  1.4 Illinois State           221 28  -3 12.2  0.9 Alabama A&M             
 96 63   1 14.1  1.1 Iowa State               222 24  -3 12.2  0.9 Rhode Island            
 97 64   1 14.1  1.3 Southeast Louisiana      223 23  -3 12.2 -0.1 Southern Mississippi    
 98 58   1 14.1  1.4 Dayton                   224 **  -3 12.1  1.6 Incarnate Word          
 99 41   1 14.1  0.6 Toledo                   225 17  -3 12.2  0.5 Morgan State            
100 44   1 14.1  1.3 Rutgers                  226 16  -3 12.2  0.5 Weber State             
101 35   1 14.1  1.1 Arkansas State           227 18  -3 12.1  0.4 Texas - El Paso         
102 66   1 14.1  1.1 McNeese State            228 13  -3 12.1 -0.2 Western Carolina        
103 58   1 14.1  0.3 Jacksonville             229 69  -3 12.1  0.1 Campbell                
104 43   1 14.1  0.4 San Jose State           230 55  -3 12.1  0.3 Georgia State           
105 39   1 14.0  1.2 Boston College           231 14  -3 12.0 -0.0 Southeast Missouri State
106 20   1 14.0  1.3 Southern Illinois        232 57  -4 12.0 -0.7 Morehead State          
107 45   1 14.0  0.5 Nevada - Reno            233 70  -3 11.9  1.0 Mississippi Valley State
108 40   1 14.0  1.1 Appalachian State        234 **  -3 11.9  1.4 Stetson                 
109 45   1 14.0  0.3 Colorado State           235 23  -4 11.9  0.9 Columbia                
110 41   1 13.9  1.5 Maryland                 236 13  -4 11.8 -0.1 Nicholls State          
111 51   1 13.9  1.5 Bethune - Cookman        237 18  -4 11.8  0.7 Massachusetts           
112 42   1 14.0  1.0 Illinois                 238 11  -4 11.7 -0.3 Idaho                   
113 35   0 13.9  1.6 Tennessee - Chattanooga  239 12  -4 11.7  0.5 Virginia Military       
114 35   0 13.9  1.4 Monmouth                 240 25  -4 11.7  0.2 Presbyterian            
115 55   0 13.9  1.4 Bowling Green            241 10  -4 11.7 -0.5 New Mexico State        
116 45   0 13.9  1.6 Dartmouth                242 26  -5 11.6  0.1 Grambling               
117 62   0 13.9  1.7 Drake                    243 13  -5 11.5 -0.4 Eastern Michigan        
118 47   0 13.9  0.9 Ball State               244 18  -5 11.5  0.6 Miami - Ohio            
119 25   0 13.9  1.6 Minnesota                245  9  -5 11.4 -0.8 Idaho State             
120 59   0 13.9  1.1 Arkansas                 246 29  -5 11.2  0.4 Texas Southern          
121 51   0 13.9  1.0 North Carolina State     247 **  -5 11.1  0.9 Houston Baptist         
122 52   0 13.8  1.9 Tennessee State          248 13  -5 11.2  0.4 Florida International   
123 40   0 13.8  1.2 Pennsylvania             249 20  -6 11.0 -0.7 Valparaiso              
124 55   0 13.8  0.6 Louisiana - Lafayette    250 40  -6 11.0  0.3 Davidson                
125 65   0 13.7  1.4 Marist                   251  7  -6 10.8  0.1 Austin Peay             
126 31   0 13.7  1.7 Wofford                  252  6  -7 10.5 -0.9 Savannah State          

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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