prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 31 Wisconsin 48 45.9, 191 Tennessee Tech 0 10.3
84% 60 Penn State 45 46.1, 216 Eastern Michigan 7 12.3
84% 24 Arizona 58 53.1, 221 Nevada - Las Vegas 13 11.6
82% 114 Troy State 66 59.1, 250 Savannah State 3 18.5
82% 110 Vanderbilt 38 42.1, 249 Austin Peay 3 10.1
81% 97 Virginia Tech 45 42.3, 219 Western Carolina 3 13.6
80% 90 Central Florida 38 37.4, 220 Florida International 0 12.3
80% 5 Louisiana State 56 49.2, 163 Alabama - Birmingham 17 15.5
79% 99 Mississippi State 51 34.0, 232 Alcorn State 7 3.6
79% 41 Ohio State 42 40.6, 199 San Diego State 7 13.6
79% 1 Baylor 70 60.5, 173 Buffalo 13 18.0
78% 88 Maine 24 33.8, 238 Massachusetts 14 7.1
78% 50 Mississippi 31 51.5, 237 Southeast Missouri Sta 13 15.4
77% 11 Clemson 52 44.0, 179 South Carolina State 13 16.0
76% 124 Wyoming 42 46.8, 248 Idaho 10 15.2
76% 102 Minnesota 44 44.6, 242 New Mexico State 21 17.9
76% 19 Missouri 38 37.7, 135 Toledo 23 14.3
74% 96 William & Mary 31 33.4, 211 Hampton 7 8.6
74% 73 Stony Brook 24 45.2, 226 Rhode Island 0 16.1
74% 20 McNeese State 58 56.6, 229 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 14 15.3
73% 49 Arizona State 55 37.3, 218 Sacramento State 0 10.2
72% 9 Georgia Southern 59 53.5, 153 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 23.2
71% 69 Nebraska 56 39.9, 209 Southern Mississippi 13 17.3
71% 2 Oregon 59 43.4, 92 Virginia 10 20.6
70% 74 Boston College 24 29.8, 167 Wake Forest 10 11.6
70% 48 Kansas State 48 41.3, 162 Louisiana - Lafayette 27 18.9
69% 55 East Carolina 31 45.3, 213 Florida Atlantic 13 20.6
69% 40 Youngstown State 67 38.4, 141 Morehead State 13 16.5
68% 177 Kentucky 41 35.2, 239 Miami - Ohio 7 18.5
68% 144 Northwestern State 55 41.6, 236 Southern 14 18.2
68% 107 Michigan State 21 30.4, 187 South Florida 6 12.4
68% 77 Duke 28 42.3, 212 Memphis 14 18.5
68% 72 Ball State 40 39.3, 189 Army 14 21.5
68% 30 Delaware 42 39.9, 149 Delaware State 21 20.8
68% 14 Texas Tech 61 57.9, 104 Stephen F. Austin 13 32.2
67% 193 Robert Morris 31 26.2, 231 Morgan State 14 13.4
67% 159 Tulsa 30 35.8, 223 Colorado State 27 19.5
67% 118 Iowa 28 27.5, 202 Missouri State 14 12.1
67% 82 Coastal Carolina 35 35.3, 171 Furman 28 20.0
67% 78 Tennessee 52 37.1, 146 Western Kentucky 20 22.2
67% 75 North Carolina 40 34.2, 143 Middle Tennessee State 20 20.7
67% 56 Lehigh 51 34.3, 126 Central Connecticut 44 18.7
67% 8 Oklahoma State 56 34.8, 183 Texas - San Antonio 35 10.2
66% 170 Georgetown 42 31.5, 228 Davidson 6 18.6
66% 94 Rutgers 38 34.3, 204 Norfolk State 0 20.8
66% 79 Marshall 55 41.1, 165 Gardner - Webb 0 27.1
66% 51 Northern Iowa 45 32.3, 93 Drake 14 20.9
66% 42 Houston 22 41.6, 152 Temple 13 25.1
66% 28 Texas Christian 38 38.0, 123 Southeast Louisiana 17 20.2
66% 27 Oklahoma 16 29.6, 45 West Virginia 7 17.5
66% 13 Louisville 44 33.3, 57 Eastern Kentucky 7 21.9
65% 71 Oregon State 33 40.1, 169 Hawaii 14 27.8
65% 59 Towson 49 34.1, 175 Holy Cross 7 21.9
65% 43 Northwestern 48 35.5, 101 Syracuse 27 24.8
64% 196 Purdue 20 37.7, 214 Indiana State 14 26.3
64% 130 California 37 41.7, 176 Portland State 30 29.8
64% 87 Arkansas 31 28.9, 151 Samford 21 18.4
64% 62 Utah 70 37.2, 109 Weber State 7 26.6
64% 53 Stanford 34 24.3, 116 San Jose State 13 15.8
64% 17 South Dakota State 35 39.8, 76 North Dakota 28 28.0
64% 16 Michigan 41 28.8, 68 Notre Dame 30 20.4
63% 86 Bowling Green 41 22.9, 139 Kent State 22 15.5
63% 80 Albany 37 32.5, 132 Colgate 34 24.4
62% 205 Northeast Louisiana 48 21.9, 215 Grambling 10 15.5
62% 70 Jacksonville State 48 41.9, 89 Jacksonville 13 33.8
61% 145 Kansas 31 21.1, 174 South Dakota 14 16.4
61% 125 Nevada - Reno 36 32.9, 200 California - Davis 7 27.5
61% 83 Maryland 47 36.7, 65 Old Dominion 10 30.7
60% 84 Sacred Heart 26 30.9, 120 Lafayette 24 26.9
60% 61 North Carolina State 23 21.1, 58 Richmond 21 17.7
59% 131 Boise State 63 24.8, 113 Tennessee - Martin 14 21.0
59% 67 Eastern Illinois 40 37.7, 103 Southern Illinois 37 33.6
58% 184 Tennessee - Chattanoog 42 26.7, 203 Georgia State 14 22.2
53% 129 Tennessee State 27 16.9, 154 Florida A&M 7 16.0
52% 134 Louisiana Tech 27 26.1, 201 Lamar 14 24.6
51% 210 Wofford 21 25.5, 206 The Citadel 10 25.3
51% 166 Texas State - San Marc 28 24.9, 137 Prairie View 3 24.6
50% 207 Bucknell 27 20.9, 190 Marist 14 20.9
50% 148 Liberty 45 22.8, 105 Monmouth 15 22.6
46% 194 Ohio 27 23.9, 195 North Texas 21 25.3
45% 46 Fresno State 41 43.7, 38 California Poly 25 46.6
43% 26 Georgia 41 26.2, 32 South Carolina 30 28.3
39% 81 Miami - Florida 21 14.7, 54 Florida 16 18.6
39% 21 Texas A&M 65 36.8, 6 Sam Houston State 28 45.6
38% 217 South Alabama 41 17.2, 172 Tulane 39 27.1
38% 119 Navy 41 38.0, 22 Indiana 35 47.8
38% 115 Dayton 23 21.2, 52 Duquesne 20 25.9
38% 100 Fordham 27 26.8, 91 Villanova 24 31.9
37% 223 Colorado State 41 24.9, 198 Northern Colorado 36 33.5
36% 235 New Mexico 42 19.6, 186 Texas - El Paso 35 31.0
35% 161 Colorado 38 27.4, 33 Central Arkansas 24 48.4
34% 142 Southern Methodist 31 23.1, 36 Montana State 30 37.0
34% 127 Auburn 38 26.7, 23 Arkansas State 9 42.4
34% 112 Brigham Young 40 20.1, 25 Texas 21 31.9
34% 106 Utah State 52 20.9, 63 Air Force 20 33.9
34% 98 Illinois 45 24.2, 34 Cincinnati 17 37.4
32% 233 Jackson State 30 10.2, 136 Alabama State 23 26.8
32% 181 North Carolina A&T 24 12.3, 64 Appalachian State 21 31.1
28% 240 Nicholls State 27 14.5, 150 Western Michigan 23 37.4
27% 222 Central Michigan 24 17.0, 37 New Hampshire 21 47.9
20% 182 Washington State 10 12.2, 47 Southern California 7 38.7
19% 224 Akron 35 9.2, 39 James Madison 33 42.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.39 62 1.14 19 1.19 9 0.95 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 102 79 68.6 1.15
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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