prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 109 Bethune - Cookman 34 37.0, 244 Florida International 13 6.8
87% 25 Kansas State 37 48.5, 237 Massachusetts 7 8.3
87% 13 Louisiana State 45 43.0, 181 Kent State 13 9.8
87% 10 Ohio State 52 46.0, 128 California 34 18.6
86% 156 North Carolina A&T 23 34.6, 243 Elon 10 11.5
86% 153 Furman 21 36.7, 247 Presbyterian 20 14.6
86% 129 Tennessee - Chattanoog 42 45.7, 249 Austin Peay 10 13.1
86% 107 Alabama State 40 36.5, 216 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 39 13.0
86% 68 Rutgers 28 46.9, 224 Eastern Michigan 10 16.1
86% 65 Northern Illinois 45 53.7, 248 Idaho 35 16.1
86% 54 South Dakota State 34 38.0, 155 Southeast Louisiana 26 19.6
86% 41 Northwestern 38 42.8, 174 Western Michigan 17 20.0
86% 34 Oklahoma 51 37.2, 121 Tulsa 20 13.1
86% 24 Maryland 32 43.1, 214 Connecticut 21 10.4
86% 22 Michigan 28 49.0, 203 Akron 24 18.4
86% 9 Georgia Tech 38 45.1, 92 Duke 14 23.4
86% 8 Florida State 62 46.8, 75 Nevada - Reno 7 20.8
86% 2 Oregon 59 51.7, 53 Tennessee 14 25.2
85% 87 Liberty 38 36.2, 208 Morgan State 10 13.6
84% 7 Montana 55 46.1, 118 North Dakota 17 15.4
83% 100 Tennessee State 26 30.4, 187 Jackson State 16 11.7
79% 130 Middle Tennessee State 17 38.7, 220 Memphis 15 19.2
78% 76 Arkansas 24 46.3, 211 Southern Mississippi 3 19.1
77% 60 Stanford 34 38.7, 213 Army 20 12.6
77% 35 South Carolina 35 30.1, 88 Vanderbilt 25 18.0
77% 28 Louisville 27 38.7, 122 Kentucky 13 23.3
75% 11 Texas Tech 20 41.5, 43 Texas Christian 10 27.9
73% 84 James Madison 24 43.2, 169 Saint Francis - Pennsy 20 21.3
73% 59 West Virginia 41 41.6, 223 Georgia State 7 12.7
72% 103 Old Dominion 76 43.3, 222 Howard 19 21.6
72% 72 Fordham 30 39.4, 189 Temple 29 24.2
71% 52 Eastern Illinois 57 49.0, 133 Illinois State 24 33.3
70% 148 The Citadel 28 37.5, 219 Western Carolina 21 23.7
70% 26 Sam Houston State 55 50.8, 226 Texas Southern 17 15.3
69% 98 Iowa 27 28.1, 145 Iowa State 21 18.4
69% 33 Towson 49 43.7, 161 Delaware State 7 21.7
69% 19 Arizona 38 39.9, 183 Texas - San Antonio 13 14.6
69% 17 Oklahoma State 59 41.5, 210 Lamar 3 11.7
68% 172 Texas - El Paso 42 41.1, 241 New Mexico State 21 24.7
68% 158 Charleston Southern 30 48.4, 252 Campbell 10 18.9
68% 152 Louisiana - Lafayette 70 40.9, 227 Nicholls State 7 25.9
67% 119 Pittsburgh 49 33.2, 182 New Mexico 27 20.6
67% 58 William & Mary 34 30.2, 127 Lafayette 6 18.8
67% 55 Boise State 42 32.1, 105 Air Force 20 19.8
67% 39 New Hampshire 53 40.0, 99 Colgate 23 26.5
66% 80 Maine 35 24.3, 104 Bryant 22 16.4
66% 38 Lehigh 28 32.9, 113 Monmouth 25 21.6
66% 37 Coastal Carolina 51 33.8, 131 Eastern Kentucky 32 23.8
65% 149 Utah State 70 34.7, 175 Weber State 6 29.0
65% 144 Wyoming 35 35.4, 194 Northern Colorado 7 26.2
65% 70 Southern California 35 23.4, 97 Boston College 7 17.8
64% 85 Minnesota 29 33.2, 108 Western Illinois 12 28.6
63% 136 Jacksonville 69 40.3, 168 Morehead State 19 33.3
62% 143 Northeast Louisiana 21 27.1, 173 Wake Forest 19 22.8
62% 101 Notre Dame 31 27.4, 137 Purdue 24 22.8
61% 89 Cincinnati 66 36.4, 95 Northwestern State 9 31.6
61% 79 Indiana 42 36.6, 124 Bowling Green 10 33.8
58% 126 Syracuse 54 26.3, 139 Wagner 0 24.9
55% 115 Dayton 21 20.4, 132 Robert Morris 14 19.4
51% 91 Arkansas State 41 39.2, 56 Troy State 34 38.9
50% 73 Virginia Tech 15 32.6, 57 East Carolina 10 32.6
46% 209 Washington State 48 33.4, 180 Southern Utah 10 35.3
46% 142 Samford 27 18.8, 170 Florida A&M 20 19.7
44% 166 Murray State 41 34.1, 200 Missouri State 38 35.8
41% 94 Auburn 24 24.4, 96 Mississippi State 20 26.8
38% 232 South Alabama 31 20.4, 185 Western Kentucky 24 26.6
38% 82 Central Florida 34 21.5, 81 Penn State 31 24.4
37% 233 Alcorn State 35 20.1, 218 Mississippi Valley Sta 28 24.7
37% 205 Northern Arizona 21 16.3, 178 California - Davis 10 21.2
37% 193 Tennessee Tech 30 23.3, 199 Hampton 27 29.1
37% 134 Tennessee - Martin 24 23.9, 86 Central Arkansas 23 34.7
37% 102 Washington 34 31.0, 48 Illinois 24 37.9
37% 64 Michigan State 55 25.4, 14 Youngstown State 17 30.8
37% 36 Arizona State 32 24.0, 27 Wisconsin 30 29.2
36% 18 Alabama 49 31.1, 4 Texas A&M 42 39.1
35% 207 Holy Cross 52 32.2, 112 Central Connecticut 21 42.9
35% 46 California - Los Angel 41 26.8, 20 Nebraska 21 34.6
34% 215 Tulane 24 29.2, 120 Louisiana Tech 15 44.8
34% 171 Colorado State 34 28.0, 78 California Poly 17 40.9
34% 47 Mississippi 44 30.4, 30 Texas 23 37.3
33% 246 North Carolina Central 40 7.3, 135 North Carolina - Charl 13 33.7
33% 191 North Texas 34 26.2, 111 Ball State 27 34.3
32% 230 Southern 62 20.6, 204 Prairie View 59 30.4
32% 212 Rice 23 28.9, 140 Kansas 14 47.6
31% 236 Nevada - Las Vegas 31 23.5, 176 Central Michigan 21 40.0
31% 188 South Carolina State 32 18.2, 69 Alabama A&M 0 37.8
30% 123 Navy 51 26.4, 5 Delaware 7 52.6
27% 229 Florida Atlantic 28 20.3, 164 South Florida 10 38.4
26% 201 Marist 43 19.7, 141 Georgetown 23 30.0
25% 160 Toledo 33 29.3, 44 Eastern Washington 21 43.8
22% 234 Buffalo 26 15.3, 74 Stony Brook 23 47.7
18% 179 Ohio 34 21.9, 61 Marshall 31 37.3
18% 50 Oregon State 51 29.5, 16 Utah 48 41.7
13% 238 Rhode Island 19 11.4, 45 Albany 13 53.8
13% 228 Gardner - Webb 12 8.9, 83 Richmond 10 38.5
13% 154 Wofford 30 17.4, 1 Georgia Southern 20 51.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.92 46 0.80 16 1.01 26 0.94 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 96 61 68.7 0.89
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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