prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 94 Alabama State 52 41.0, 243 Grambling 21 10.7
91% 36 Louisville 72 49.3, 241 Florida International 0 5.9
91% 1 Texas A&M 42 56.6, 116 Southern Methodist 13 23.2
90% 69 Miami - Florida 77 62.2, 251 Savannah State 7 2.7
90% 41 Michigan 24 39.2, 193 Connecticut 21 17.8
90% 22 Northern Iowa 26 45.5, 210 Northern Colorado 7 12.8
90% 9 McNeese State 43 59.7, 218 Weber State 6 15.2
90% 3 Baylor 70 55.1, 142 Northeast Louisiana 7 20.3
89% 61 Vanderbilt 24 40.4, 232 Massachusetts 7 13.8
89% 44 Cincinnati 14 48.3, 237 Miami - Ohio 0 11.9
89% 11 North Dakota State 51 45.8, 201 Delaware State 0 4.8
89% 6 Louisiana State 35 40.3, 79 Auburn 21 17.9
87% 157 Ohio 38 41.4, 249 Austin Peay 0 14.6
87% 82 Iowa 59 39.0, 172 Western Michigan 3 17.5
87% 68 William & Mary 20 36.6, 214 Rhode Island 0 7.6
87% 37 Jacksonville State 32 46.2, 224 Georgia State 26 15.1
87% 28 California - Los Angel 59 56.4, 242 New Mexico State 13 9.7
87% 25 Wisconsin 41 40.9, 111 Purdue 10 18.4
87% 14 Texas Tech 33 42.0, 158 Texas State - San Marc 7 13.5
87% 8 Ohio State 76 47.9, 200 Florida A&M 0 10.7
86% 122 Ball State 51 39.8, 220 Eastern Michigan 20 25.8
86% 119 Washington State 42 45.5, 238 Idaho 0 18.3
86% 117 Appalachian State 31 40.6, 236 Elon 21 20.3
86% 48 Coastal Carolina 50 45.4, 219 Hampton 17 19.4
86% 45 Oregon State 34 40.8, 152 San Diego State 30 26.0
86% 15 Georgia 45 47.5, 190 North Texas 21 14.8
86% 7 Alabama 31 47.3, 149 Colorado State 6 8.8
86% 4 Florida State 54 37.7, 90 Bethune - Cookman 6 10.3
85% 154 Southern Illinois 36 40.3, 246 Southeast Missouri Sta 19 22.6
85% 74 Washington 56 61.2, 248 Idaho State 0 12.6
85% 59 Florida 31 32.5, 81 Tennessee 17 16.1
85% 47 Syracuse 52 44.4, 207 Tulane 17 14.2
84% 77 Penn State 34 30.3, 147 Kent State 0 14.7
84% 16 Towson 35 48.1, 211 North Carolina Central 17 19.3
82% 62 Houston 31 48.1, 183 Rice 26 21.2
81% 141 Virginia 49 33.8, 245 Virginia Military 0 9.3
81% 23 Lehigh 29 39.4, 144 Princeton 28 18.9
80% 104 Tennessee State 41 34.1, 167 Tennessee Tech 21 20.2
78% 91 Virginia Tech 29 31.9, 102 Marshall 21 19.0
76% 110 Nevada - Reno 31 37.1, 184 Hawaii 9 27.2
76% 89 Louisiana - Lafayette 35 42.0, 191 Akron 30 29.5
76% 33 Old Dominion 59 49.3, 160 The Citadel 58 25.9
76% 32 Missouri 45 42.1, 71 Indiana 28 30.5
75% 185 Western Kentucky 58 34.3, 235 Morgan State 17 21.9
74% 100 Toledo 38 36.7, 215 Central Michigan 17 22.4
69% 179 Jackson State 35 36.4, 229 Texas Southern 7 20.7
69% 99 Pennsylvania 27 32.1, 162 Lafayette 21 18.0
69% 92 Fordham 52 35.6, 197 Columbia 7 22.3
68% 108 Brown 45 29.8, 148 Georgetown 7 16.9
68% 12 Clemson 26 34.4, 63 North Carolina State 14 28.4
67% 136 Dartmouth 30 31.3, 196 Butler 23 19.9
67% 95 Mississippi State 62 33.7, 88 Troy State 7 25.0
67% 21 Northwestern 35 33.3, 75 Maine 21 23.7
66% 170 Northern Arizona 22 19.7, 212 South Dakota 16 12.8
66% 18 Harvard 42 32.5, 128 San Diego 20 17.8
66% 13 Sam Houston State 52 47.4, 178 Incarnate Word 21 19.9
65% 103 Central Arkansas 17 33.8, 175 Missouri State 13 25.1
64% 139 Eastern Kentucky 56 38.7, 176 Morehead State 24 30.3
64% 101 Delaware 49 30.3, 166 Wagner 9 21.2
64% 53 Youngstown State 59 32.4, 73 Duquesne 17 27.9
64% 31 Georgia Tech 28 34.0, 51 North Carolina 20 27.7
63% 70 James Madison 34 30.8, 198 North Carolina - Charl 7 17.0
63% 67 Rutgers 28 24.7, 76 Arkansas 24 21.2
63% 55 Nebraska 59 33.8, 58 South Dakota State 20 29.9
62% 181 Bowling Green 48 34.1, 113 Murray State 7 31.1
62% 143 Cornell 45 25.4, 192 Bucknell 13 22.3
62% 134 Portland State 41 30.0, 209 California - Davis 10 27.5
62% 96 Villanova 35 24.6, 86 Stony Brook 6 22.7
62% 38 Stanford 42 30.4, 30 Arizona State 28 26.9
61% 195 Southern Utah 24 27.4, 225 Sacramento State 21 24.6
61% 180 Wake Forest 25 27.0, 177 Army 11 25.4
60% 39 Maryland 37 32.1, 49 West Virginia 0 30.3
55% 97 Pittsburgh 58 29.8, 126 Duke 55 28.6
55% 24 Utah 20 27.4, 65 Brigham Young 13 26.7
52% 137 Illinois State 31 34.7, 202 Abilene Christian 17 32.5
52% 52 Northern Illinois 43 42.6, 26 Eastern Illinois 39 42.0
49% 171 Kansas 13 30.5, 132 Louisiana Tech 10 30.8
48% 182 Middle Tennessee State 42 22.9, 213 Florida Atlantic 35 23.4
47% 42 Notre Dame 17 21.7, 50 Michigan State 13 22.4
45% 189 Prairie View 28 27.4, 217 Alabama A&M 26 28.6
45% 109 Minnesota 43 24.7, 98 San Jose State 24 25.4
43% 168 Texas - San Antonio 32 27.1, 164 Texas - El Paso 13 30.0
39% 129 Richmond 30 21.0, 80 Liberty 21 22.6
38% 223 Southern 17 28.5, 233 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 31.8
38% 187 Alabama - Birmingham 52 32.9, 161 Northwestern State 28 36.7
38% 123 Wyoming 56 28.3, 131 Air Force 23 30.3
38% 115 Monmouth 21 28.3, 133 Holy Cross 14 31.3
38% 57 Southern California 17 26.5, 27 Utah State 14 29.7
37% 206 Charleston Southern 20 17.3, 216 Norfolk State 12 22.6
37% 173 Yale 39 25.5, 114 Colgate 22 31.4
37% 60 Texas 31 29.6, 35 Kansas State 21 32.1
37% 40 Fresno State 41 34.0, 54 Boise State 40 38.0
35% 226 Nevada - Las Vegas 38 21.8, 188 Western Illinois 7 30.9
34% 240 Alcorn State 21 29.0, 194 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 16 37.6
17% 138 Stephen F. Austin 52 28.8, 43 Montana State 38 47.3
14% 227 Gardner - Webb 3 9.9, 118 Wofford 0 34.5
14% 165 Southeast Louisiana 34 19.8, 107 Samford 31 33.3
14% 153 Central Connecticut 20 25.2, 72 Albany 17 47.3
12% 234 Memphis 31 16.2, 93 Arkansas State 7 40.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.74 39 1.08 7 1.32 37 1.01 6 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 99 76 72.9 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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