prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 101 Tennessee State 40 39.3, 240 Southeast Missouri Sta 16 7.9
91% 17 Louisville 30 41.1, 188 Temple 7 12.6
90% 208 Norfolk State 26 45.5, 252 Savannah State 24 15.2
90% 95 Tennessee - Chattanoog 42 47.9, 224 Western Carolina 21 18.3
90% 57 Central Florida 24 37.3, 209 Memphis 17 12.4
88% 119 Eastern Kentucky 38 45.1, 249 Austin Peay 3 9.2
88% 75 Alabama State 34 43.5, 235 Texas Southern 2 14.0
88% 63 Eastern Washington 41 47.1, 231 Weber State 19 20.2
88% 18 South Carolina 35 40.0, 167 Kentucky 28 9.7
88% 2 Oregon 57 59.7, 176 Colorado 16 14.1
87% 162 Bowling Green 28 30.6, 234 Massachusetts 7 11.3
87% 141 Marist 37 49.1, 248 Valparaiso 0 14.1
87% 123 Dayton 40 37.4, 242 Davidson 8 8.2
87% 110 Toledo 47 41.0, 205 Western Michigan 20 21.3
87% 12 Alabama 45 49.3, 219 Georgia State 3 5.6
87% 4 Baylor 73 50.1, 81 West Virginia 42 23.6
87% 3 Florida State 63 41.1, 39 Maryland 0 17.9
86% 118 North Dakota 28 56.0, 251 Idaho State 25 20.5
86% 103 Bethune - Cookman 21 31.9, 201 Delaware State 7 15.8
86% 102 Princeton 53 37.7, 223 Columbia 7 16.0
86% 40 Fresno State 61 55.2, 238 Idaho 14 23.0
86% 37 Nebraska 39 38.6, 77 Illinois 19 26.1
86% 34 Northern Illinois 38 39.7, 143 Kent State 24 24.3
86% 29 Texas Tech 54 39.0, 183 Kansas 16 15.5
86% 26 Youngstown State 35 42.2, 145 Indiana State 24 22.6
86% 16 Harvard 41 40.4, 124 Holy Cross 35 21.5
86% 10 Oklahoma 20 35.4, 38 Texas Christian 17 21.5
85% 181 Wofford 55 36.3, 246 Presbyterian 14 10.1
85% 85 Brown 31 30.7, 180 Rhode Island 14 12.8
85% 43 Montana State 36 37.6, 121 Northern Arizona 7 21.5
84% 147 Ohio 43 34.1, 206 Akron 3 24.5
83% 80 Virginia Tech 27 31.6, 105 North Carolina 17 18.1
82% 5 Ohio State 40 43.8, 25 Northwestern 30 29.7
81% 165 Buffalo 42 38.8, 232 Eastern Michigan 14 22.9
81% 146 Prairie View 31 43.1, 243 Grambling 3 25.6
80% 58 Florida 30 29.0, 79 Arkansas 10 16.5
80% 36 Michigan 42 38.2, 94 Minnesota 13 22.4
80% 11 Old Dominion 21 49.9, 71 Liberty 17 32.0
79% 156 Lafayette 31 25.9, 221 Bucknell 7 15.9
79% 73 Rutgers 55 28.8, 131 Southern Methodist 52 19.2
77% 127 Boston College 48 30.9, 193 Army 27 16.7
77% 64 Montana 55 40.8, 122 Portland State 27 22.5
77% 22 Miami - Florida 45 35.0, 44 Georgia Tech 30 25.1
75% 220 New Mexico 66 38.6, 241 New Mexico State 17 27.2
75% 69 East Carolina 24 39.0, 204 Middle Tennessee State 17 21.8
74% 175 Sacramento State 37 29.0, 217 Northern Colorado 21 16.3
73% 13 Clemson 49 37.9, 62 Syracuse 14 28.6
73% 9 North Dakota State 24 28.2, 23 Northern Iowa 23 15.7
72% 76 James Madison 40 31.7, 144 Albany 13 17.7
70% 174 Morehead State 45 48.3, 250 Campbell 36 30.0
70% 168 Jackson State 42 35.6, 202 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 33 22.1
70% 6 Oklahoma State 33 39.7, 35 Kansas State 29 27.5
69% 177 Illinois State 35 35.0, 230 Western Illinois 21 20.0
69% 111 Pennsylvania 37 25.8, 140 Dartmouth 31 19.7
69% 97 Monmouth 35 31.0, 157 Robert Morris 9 20.7
69% 74 Jacksonville State 41 32.9, 136 Tennessee - Martin 27 23.1
69% 60 Villanova 20 23.3, 100 William & Mary 16 14.1
69% 15 Georgia 34 44.7, 83 Tennessee 31 30.3
69% 8 Louisiana State 59 30.3, 51 Mississippi State 26 22.7
67% 125 Navy 28 33.3, 149 Air Force 10 25.4
67% 30 Towson 44 35.9, 49 New Hampshire 28 28.8
66% 151 Western Kentucky 31 29.2, 207 Northeast Louisiana 10 22.0
66% 108 Marshall 34 40.5, 187 Texas - San Antonio 10 26.4
66% 106 Louisiana - Lafayette 48 32.2, 160 Texas State - San Marc 24 27.5
66% 27 Missouri 51 32.0, 55 Vanderbilt 28 26.7
65% 199 North Carolina Central 37 30.9, 212 Howard 28 26.0
65% 28 Stanford 31 30.5, 50 Washington 28 23.6
64% 210 Central Michigan 21 29.4, 237 Miami - Ohio 9 24.8
64% 129 San Jose State 37 29.8, 195 Hawaii 27 25.1
63% 161 Troy State 34 34.4, 192 South Alabama 33 28.4
63% 59 Texas 31 28.9, 92 Iowa State 30 25.6
62% 194 North Carolina - Charl 53 25.8, 226 Gardner - Webb 51 16.0
62% 171 Louisiana Tech 38 35.8, 190 Texas - El Paso 35 33.5
62% 78 Maine 62 26.8, 56 Delaware 28 25.6
59% 52 Michigan State 26 20.9, 54 Iowa 14 19.3
56% 137 Butler 35 36.0, 191 Stetson 15 30.4
56% 130 Murray State 35 41.6, 159 Tennessee Tech 24 40.1
55% 155 Southeast Louisiana 35 32.4, 178 Incarnate Word 3 28.8
52% 70 McNeese State 59 29.8, 87 Central Arkansas 28 29.2
49% 158 San Diego 45 24.9, 109 Mercer 13 26.0
47% 163 South Carolina State 29 17.4, 153 North Carolina A&T 24 18.2
45% 112 Stony Brook 21 28.1, 91 Bryant 13 29.3
44% 139 Washington State 44 30.9, 116 California 22 31.9
38% 184 Central Connecticut 38 33.7, 148 Saint Francis - Pennsy 29 37.1
38% 134 Colgate 41 34.1, 133 Cornell 20 37.8
38% 88 Auburn 30 26.1, 61 Mississippi 22 28.9
38% 46 Notre Dame 37 29.2, 21 Arizona State 34 32.6
37% 198 Tulane 24 26.6, 185 North Texas 21 29.9
37% 182 Drake 27 35.3, 107 Jacksonville 17 43.2
37% 128 San Diego State 51 33.5, 89 Nevada - Reno 44 36.5
37% 20 California - Los Angel 34 29.7, 24 Utah 27 32.5
35% 215 South Dakota 17 15.3, 169 Missouri State 14 21.4
35% 164 The Citadel 31 29.9, 120 Appalachian State 28 35.9
34% 236 Mississippi Valley Sta 28 14.5, 225 Alabama A&M 9 22.4
34% 150 Yale 24 24.2, 82 California Poly 10 32.1
34% 72 Brigham Young 31 20.0, 41 Utah State 14 27.1
34% 67 Fordham 52 30.4, 33 Lehigh 34 37.4
33% 239 Morgan State 34 22.5, 214 Florida A&M 21 30.6
33% 213 Florida Atlantic 37 25.7, 166 Alabama - Birmingham 23 32.8
33% 117 Ball State 48 21.7, 113 Virginia 27 29.0
32% 186 Rice 30 27.8, 126 Tulsa 27 37.9
32% 142 Southern Illinois 27 24.3, 96 South Dakota State 24 34.6
31% 245 Florida International 24 24.1, 228 Southern Mississippi 23 34.3
21% 233 California - Davis 21 15.6, 172 Southern Utah 3 26.9
20% 86 Indiana 44 26.0, 66 Penn State 24 37.1
19% 211 Elon 28 26.0, 132 Furman 25 41.3
15% 196 Wake Forest 28 15.1, 53 North Carolina State 13 35.0
15% 114 Samford 44 21.0, 14 Georgia Southern 34 37.6
14% 179 South Florida 26 19.7, 65 Cincinnati 20 36.9
13% 203 Wagner 23 14.2, 84 Sacred Heart 20 35.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.01 43 0.82 16 1.16 39 1.02 3 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 79 81.3 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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