prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 48 Montana State 34 46.4, 230 Weber State 16 18.3
90% 5 Ohio State 34 42.7, 73 Iowa 24 18.2
89% 109 Bethune - Cookman 48 51.9, 250 Savannah State 21 5.5
89% 59 Michigan State 14 37.3, 168 Purdue 0 11.2
88% 20 Youngstown State 24 47.4, 227 Western Illinois 14 9.6
87% 165 Rice 45 44.5, 245 New Mexico State 19 22.2
87% 120 Wofford 21 47.9, 239 Western Carolina 17 15.0
87% 101 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 39.6, 205 Elon 9 21.3
87% 61 Cincinnati 41 36.2, 194 Connecticut 16 10.8
87% 44 Lehigh 45 41.5, 195 Georgetown 24 14.5
87% 40 Northern Illinois 38 42.8, 200 Central Michigan 17 21.5
87% 26 Miami - Florida 27 40.1, 112 North Carolina 23 24.1
87% 22 Oklahoma 34 39.5, 187 Kansas 19 12.4
87% 14 Boise State 34 48.2, 92 Nevada - Reno 17 23.8
87% 7 Alabama 52 42.0, 105 Arkansas 0 10.9
87% 4 Oregon 62 57.4, 148 Washington State 38 14.9
87% 3 Baylor 71 52.1, 91 Iowa State 7 24.2
86% 158 Murray State 31 49.8, 252 Austin Peay 3 22.1
86% 150 Ohio 56 40.3, 237 Eastern Michigan 28 20.7
86% 139 Northern Arizona 39 51.3, 244 Idaho State 30 17.9
86% 137 Buffalo 32 31.1, 236 Massachusetts 3 13.3
86% 135 Marist 42 31.5, 246 Davidson 14 10.8
86% 117 Jacksonville 52 42.6, 243 Campbell 45 18.8
86% 114 Eastern Kentucky 24 37.4, 183 Tennessee Tech 10 20.8
86% 99 East Carolina 55 42.9, 220 Southern Mississippi 14 22.5
86% 90 Ball State 38 41.9, 225 Western Michigan 17 21.5
86% 74 Utah State 45 39.0, 176 New Mexico 10 22.9
86% 39 Eastern Illinois 55 49.8, 224 Southeast Missouri Sta 33 20.1
86% 31 Fresno State 38 55.1, 191 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 26.8
86% 17 Wisconsin 56 35.8, 86 Illinois 32 18.8
86% 10 Harvard 35 48.2, 132 Lafayette 16 19.7
86% 8 Oklahoma State 24 39.1, 35 Texas Christian 10 26.3
85% 119 Pennsylvania 21 31.1, 219 Columbia 7 16.7
85% 32 Oregon State 49 46.3, 144 California 17 27.1
81% 46 Eastern Washington 34 35.2, 178 Southern Utah 10 18.1
81% 21 Arizona State 53 37.1, 64 Washington 24 26.4
81% 15 North Dakota State 31 38.7, 108 Southern Illinois 10 20.0
81% 2 Florida State 51 40.7, 11 Clemson 14 28.6
80% 29 Michigan 63 49.1, 85 Indiana 47 32.7
77% 182 Texas State - San Marc 24 30.2, 217 Georgia State 17 18.9
77% 145 Stephen F. Austin 55 44.2, 240 Nicholls State 41 28.1
77% 96 Central Arkansas 26 30.7, 214 Lamar 24 13.6
75% 67 Duquesne 21 30.8, 170 Robert Morris 20 18.9
75% 45 Montana 21 32.9, 79 California Poly 14 22.0
74% 185 Morehead State 42 52.9, 249 Valparaiso 28 34.5
73% 136 Prairie View 51 34.8, 232 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 22.1
72% 125 Southern Methodist 34 32.8, 212 Memphis 29 21.3
71% 126 Southeast Louisiana 37 36.7, 197 Northwestern State 22 24.1
69% 131 Monmouth 48 34.7, 166 Cornell 23 23.1
68% 102 Toledo 45 30.1, 149 Navy 44 22.3
68% 94 Tennessee State 29 28.8, 133 Tennessee - Martin 15 19.5
68% 37 Notre Dame 14 28.3, 60 Southern California 10 22.4
68% 36 Towson 44 36.7, 128 Albany 17 25.8
68% 12 Missouri 36 27.3, 47 Florida 17 18.9
67% 140 Illinois State 55 34.3, 171 Indiana State 14 25.8
67% 89 Sacred Heart 56 33.1, 157 Bryant 28 23.3
67% 55 Maine 34 24.0, 98 William & Mary 20 18.4
66% 82 Duke 35 33.1, 142 Virginia 22 26.7
66% 27 Texas Tech 37 38.0, 88 West Virginia 27 30.7
65% 226 California - Davis 34 25.0, 234 Northern Colorado 18 20.6
65% 208 Alcorn State 20 29.8, 228 Texas Southern 13 23.9
64% 78 Abilene Christian 40 35.4, 229 Incarnate Word 6 16.3
64% 50 Brigham Young 47 33.4, 62 Houston 46 26.7
64% 28 Coastal Carolina 55 34.1, 81 Liberty 52 30.0
63% 242 Presbyterian 49 32.6, 247 Virginia Military 35 27.9
63% 210 Akron 24 28.1, 238 Miami - Ohio 17 24.3
63% 188 Temple 33 29.7, 175 Army 14 26.9
63% 69 Fordham 52 25.6, 129 Yale 31 22.6
62% 110 Louisiana - Lafayette 37 33.4, 154 Western Kentucky 20 31.4
62% 58 Georgia Tech 56 31.7, 63 Syracuse 0 29.4
60% 201 Southern 29 34.8, 211 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 21 33.1
58% 107 Dayton 45 31.8, 93 San Diego 38 29.6
49% 180 Colorado 43 28.3, 173 Charleston Southern 10 28.5
45% 34 Stanford 24 28.1, 18 California - Los Angel 10 28.8
41% 52 New Hampshire 29 31.0, 51 Villanova 28 32.4
40% 167 Sacramento State 31 29.0, 159 North Dakota 7 31.2
39% 184 South Alabama 38 25.1, 172 Kent State 21 27.9
39% 54 McNeese State 31 32.4, 19 Sam Houston State 23 35.1
38% 203 Hampton 27 21.8, 215 Norfolk State 17 24.2
38% 162 Furman 27 28.3, 138 Appalachian State 10 30.4
38% 153 Colorado State 52 30.9, 152 Wyoming 22 32.9
38% 41 Arizona 35 29.8, 30 Utah 24 31.6
37% 161 Butler 24 25.1, 116 Drake 14 31.1
34% 231 Morgan State 34 23.5, 213 North Carolina Central 22 31.6
34% 193 Delaware State 12 17.0, 179 North Carolina A&T 7 23.0
34% 190 North Texas 28 26.5, 156 Louisiana Tech 13 33.0
34% 164 Missouri State 35 22.9, 83 South Dakota State 21 30.5
34% 95 Pittsburgh 35 32.2, 13 Old Dominion 24 45.2
34% 71 Vanderbilt 31 30.3, 25 Georgia 27 37.5
33% 218 Howard 21 21.7, 216 Florida A&M 10 29.0
32% 146 Colgate 28 28.4, 115 Holy Cross 24 36.9
32% 84 Princeton 39 22.8, 75 Brown 17 29.8
31% 104 Minnesota 20 24.9, 49 Northwestern 17 33.5
17% 80 Tennessee 23 22.7, 9 South Carolina 21 43.0
15% 181 Wake Forest 34 16.6, 53 Maryland 10 33.8
14% 222 Bucknell 17 13.3, 127 Dartmouth 14 29.2
14% 209 Rhode Island 12 17.2, 106 Richmond 10 34.5
14% 202 South Dakota 38 6.2, 42 Northern Iowa 31 35.5
14% 76 Mississippi 27 21.9, 6 Louisiana State 24 39.5
14% 72 Central Florida 38 17.5, 16 Louisville 35 32.5
14% 70 Auburn 45 25.2, 1 Texas A&M 41 49.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.58 39 0.87 10 1.33 45 0.96 1 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 101 72 75.9 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net