prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 6 Oklahoma State 42 57.9, 190 Kansas 6 11.8
89% 19 Louisville 31 41.0, 188 Connecticut 10 11.5
88% 170 Tennessee State 31 40.3, 252 Austin Peay 6 7.4
88% 144 Butler 72 47.4, 249 Valparaiso 12 15.4
87% 210 Howard 42 43.9, 251 Savannah State 14 17.8
87% 158 Bowling Green 45 30.7, 241 Miami - Ohio 3 13.7
87% 107 Liberty 35 44.2, 245 Presbyterian 14 13.1
87% 91 Ball State 44 39.1, 197 Central Michigan 24 22.0
87% 78 South Dakota State 29 41.6, 204 Indiana State 0 17.6
87% 71 Washington 59 38.2, 163 Colorado 7 20.9
87% 67 Villanova 45 37.6, 221 Rhode Island 0 12.0
87% 50 Utah State 28 42.1, 191 Nevada - Las Vegas 24 17.6
87% 41 Georgia Southern 35 53.3, 229 Western Carolina 19 14.4
87% 20 Harvard 34 49.1, 230 Columbia 0 12.8
87% 17 Old Dominion 59 64.6, 244 Idaho 38 19.7
87% 15 Sam Houston State 49 64.6, 237 Nicholls State 24 17.4
87% 9 North Dakota State 28 38.5, 81 Illinois State 10 14.4
87% 5 Texas A&M 51 45.7, 62 Mississippi State 41 23.5
87% 2 Florida State 59 46.8, 161 Wake Forest 3 5.6
86% 172 Louisiana Tech 36 41.4, 239 Southern Mississippi 13 22.0
86% 117 Navy 42 41.6, 209 Hawaii 28 22.3
86% 112 Monmouth 23 30.7, 216 Wagner 6 16.4
86% 103 Boston College 48 47.2, 236 New Mexico State 34 19.2
86% 85 Iowa 38 30.6, 187 Purdue 14 14.4
86% 80 San Diego 56 46.0, 199 Morehead State 3 23.5
86% 61 Lehigh 34 37.8, 143 Holy Cross 20 23.2
86% 55 Texas Christian 21 32.5, 145 Iowa State 17 18.2
86% 16 Missouri 48 34.2, 97 Kentucky 17 19.7
86% 7 Alabama 38 31.4, 10 Louisiana State 17 19.2
85% 114 Dartmouth 34 37.2, 173 Cornell 6 21.9
85% 68 North Carolina 45 38.3, 180 Virginia 14 19.6
85% 65 Cincinnati 28 38.7, 121 Southern Methodist 25 24.0
85% 47 Southern California 62 38.2, 150 California 28 17.6
82% 135 Marist 55 41.1, 233 Campbell 28 20.5
81% 169 North Texas 41 31.9, 205 Texas - El Paso 7 19.5
81% 151 Portland State 38 51.2, 247 Idaho State 31 26.1
81% 84 Marshall 56 47.7, 193 Alabama - Birmingham 14 28.1
81% 14 Georgia 45 43.4, 109 Appalachian State 6 22.9
81% 1 Baylor 41 50.1, 18 Oklahoma 12 32.7
80% 155 South Carolina State 25 26.5, 212 Florida A&M 21 12.5
79% 79 East Carolina 58 37.0, 179 Tulsa 24 23.5
79% 34 Fresno State 48 44.4, 159 Wyoming 10 27.6
78% 56 Fordham 23 32.4, 167 Bucknell 21 20.6
77% 49 Mississippi 34 36.1, 125 Arkansas 24 24.7
77% 30 Eastern Illinois 37 51.0, 175 Murray State 17 32.2
74% 12 Wisconsin 27 31.5, 37 Brigham Young 17 19.9
73% 189 Middle Tennessee State 48 31.5, 238 Florida International 0 19.5
72% 44 Montana 31 40.5, 177 South Dakota 27 23.8
70% 131 The Citadel 35 36.2, 198 Elon 10 25.7
69% 192 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 45 39.0, 243 Grambling 42 26.4
69% 106 Louisiana - Lafayette 41 46.4, 174 Troy State 36 33.7
68% 195 Southern Utah 27 29.6, 227 Weber State 21 20.1
68% 140 Jackson State 26 28.0, 220 Alabama A&M 20 20.7
68% 99 California Poly 42 35.9, 152 Sacramento State 7 24.8
68% 48 Auburn 55 32.3, 86 Tennessee 23 25.0
67% 185 Hampton 29 30.2, 217 North Carolina Central 21 22.0
67% 154 Texas - San Antonio 10 34.0, 201 Tulane 7 20.7
66% 181 North Dakota 24 35.3, 218 Northern Colorado 21 26.6
66% 76 Duke 38 31.1, 115 North Carolina State 20 25.7
66% 60 Princeton 38 30.1, 124 Pennsylvania 26 24.2
66% 53 Maine 33 31.0, 127 Albany 27 22.7
66% 11 Arizona State 20 34.5, 54 Utah 19 28.5
65% 168 Western Kentucky 21 31.6, 183 Army 17 26.9
65% 38 Central Florida 19 40.6, 35 Houston 14 34.0
64% 200 Tennessee Tech 41 33.3, 231 Southeast Missouri Sta 16 28.3
64% 110 McNeese State 69 42.7, 132 Stephen F. Austin 38 37.0
64% 24 Texas 47 32.8, 70 West Virginia 40 29.0
63% 184 Northwestern State 37 31.3, 202 Lamar 28 26.8
63% 133 Robert Morris 54 29.5, 137 Central Connecticut 21 26.8
62% 232 Stetson 26 29.4, 250 Davidson 13 19.0
62% 146 Arkansas State 42 28.4, 176 Northeast Louisiana 14 26.2
62% 98 Sacred Heart 10 23.8, 105 Duquesne 0 21.6
61% 108 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 23.5, 126 Wofford 10 21.8
59% 242 Mississippi Valley Sta 20 25.3, 235 Texas Southern 17 24.0
57% 139 Saint Francis - Pennsy 23 27.6, 160 Bryant 20 26.4
56% 22 Kansas State 49 34.6, 28 Texas Tech 26 33.4
55% 52 Eastern Washington 54 36.7, 46 Montana State 29 36.0
53% 123 Colorado State 38 34.9, 120 Nevada - Reno 17 34.5
52% 141 Buffalo 30 27.3, 122 Ohio 3 27.0
52% 119 Drake 36 25.0, 88 Dayton 10 24.6
51% 75 Minnesota 24 25.0, 77 Penn State 10 24.9
48% 104 Indiana 52 37.4, 116 Illinois 35 37.8
46% 39 Nebraska 17 30.8, 43 Michigan 13 31.4
41% 228 Incarnate Word 34 18.9, 142 Abilene Christian 31 23.9
41% 153 Mercer 45 32.8, 96 Jacksonville 42 38.7
39% 136 Furman 35 23.9, 87 Samford 17 25.8
38% 130 San Diego State 34 29.2, 111 San Jose State 30 31.5
38% 93 Jacksonville State 68 25.3, 69 Eastern Kentucky 10 28.2
38% 92 Southeast Louisiana 58 29.6, 83 Central Arkansas 31 32.7
38% 73 Northern Iowa 22 27.5, 27 Youngstown State 20 29.9
37% 129 Missouri State 37 27.3, 113 Southern Illinois 27 30.6
37% 101 Richmond 39 19.3, 102 Stony Brook 31 21.8
36% 95 Syracuse 20 22.3, 82 Maryland 3 26.3
36% 64 New Hampshire 33 24.0, 42 James Madison 17 27.9
35% 182 New Mexico 45 30.9, 164 Air Force 37 35.4
35% 74 William & Mary 24 20.2, 45 Delaware 10 23.5
34% 246 Virginia Military 27 23.0, 225 Gardner - Webb 9 31.4
34% 51 California - Los Angel 31 29.1, 33 Arizona 26 34.0
33% 222 Alcorn State 50 28.9, 147 Prairie View 35 36.9
32% 234 Eastern Michigan 35 30.4, 213 Western Michigan 32 37.7
32% 207 Memphis 21 23.0, 138 Tennessee - Martin 6 32.4
32% 128 Yale 24 19.1, 63 Brown 17 27.4
32% 94 Virginia Tech 42 18.8, 40 Miami - Florida 24 27.3
31% 157 Colgate 28 26.2, 118 Lafayette 24 35.6
27% 89 Pittsburgh 28 20.4, 26 Notre Dame 21 30.0
26% 66 Vanderbilt 34 16.1, 58 Florida 17 27.2
23% 226 Morgan State 24 18.0, 156 North Carolina A&T 23 33.6
18% 25 Stanford 26 27.4, 4 Oregon 20 39.8
15% 203 Southern 31 23.1, 148 Alabama State 28 36.6
14% 194 Charleston Southern 31 24.3, 21 Coastal Carolina 26 48.8
13% 223 Norfolk State 27 7.3, 100 Bethune - Cookman 24 31.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.21 43 0.86 13 1.02 43 1.06 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111 81 81.2 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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