prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 111 Dayton 45 52.2, 251 Valparaiso 20 12.9
89% 43 Maine 41 42.7, 227 Rhode Island 0 10.5
88% 156 North Carolina A&T 41 50.1, 252 Savannah State 14 10.3
88% 47 Montana 42 50.0, 228 Weber State 6 15.8
88% 3 Ohio State 60 51.5, 133 Illinois 35 18.2
88% 1 Florida State 59 46.9, 71 Syracuse 3 10.8
87% 161 South Carolina State 38 33.3, 226 Morgan State 3 15.2
87% 140 Northern Arizona 24 34.7, 221 Northern Colorado 7 16.5
87% 94 Penn State 45 34.7, 185 Purdue 21 15.5
87% 42 Brigham Young 59 59.6, 246 Idaho State 13 6.9
87% 38 Coastal Carolina 46 55.6, 238 Presbyterian 13 20.2
87% 34 Boise State 48 45.6, 175 Wyoming 7 15.6
87% 26 Oklahoma 48 36.5, 124 Iowa State 10 14.6
87% 19 Old Dominion 42 68.9, 237 Campbell 14 23.2
87% 18 Wisconsin 51 48.4, 87 Indiana 3 25.5
87% 16 Harvard 38 39.5, 130 Pennsylvania 30 17.2
87% 6 Oregon 44 40.5, 64 Utah 21 19.0
86% 131 Bethune - Cookman 42 31.7, 182 Hampton 12 17.6
86% 125 Furman 32 40.6, 223 Western Carolina 20 20.7
86% 109 The Citadel 31 40.1, 234 Virginia Military 10 15.7
86% 107 Central Arkansas 17 47.5, 235 Nicholls State 10 23.6
86% 96 Louisiana - Lafayette 35 42.4, 225 Georgia State 21 25.3
86% 60 Princeton 59 33.0, 123 Yale 23 22.5
86% 58 East Carolina 63 51.2, 211 Alabama - Birmingham 14 21.8
86% 49 Georgia Southern 38 40.8, 214 Elon 20 16.6
86% 23 Northern Illinois 48 46.6, 93 Ball State 27 31.1
86% 8 Clemson 55 41.9, 37 Georgia Tech 31 27.5
86% 7 Alabama 20 36.7, 63 Mississippi State 7 15.7
86% 2 Baylor 63 54.8, 51 Texas Tech 34 30.9
85% 147 Alabama State 19 32.1, 239 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 16.9
85% 114 Duquesne 24 36.0, 177 Central Connecticut 21 19.3
85% 41 Vanderbilt 22 36.8, 119 Kentucky 6 22.2
84% 199 Kent State 24 30.6, 245 Miami - Ohio 6 15.7
84% 48 Mississippi 51 47.8, 154 Troy State 21 25.9
84% 15 South Carolina 19 28.2, 90 Florida 14 13.4
82% 148 Tennessee State 17 34.8, 169 Murray State 10 22.8
81% 112 Butler 58 42.4, 218 Morehead State 27 24.5
81% 78 McNeese State 43 44.7, 184 Northwestern State 17 23.9
80% 105 Colorado State 66 38.3, 181 New Mexico 42 29.1
79% 102 San Diego State 28 41.1, 193 Hawaii 21 28.3
79% 13 Arizona State 30 38.2, 54 Oregon State 17 27.3
76% 46 Central Florida 39 33.0, 150 Temple 36 18.9
75% 164 Bucknell 17 25.8, 190 Georgetown 7 15.6
74% 57 Lehigh 31 35.6, 136 Colgate 14 25.9
73% 12 Kansas State 33 33.1, 45 Texas Christian 31 21.5
72% 219 Texas - El Paso 33 32.4, 247 Florida International 10 20.9
71% 104 Southern Methodist 38 34.0, 186 Connecticut 21 22.6
71% 69 South Dakota State 27 32.5, 172 South Dakota 12 18.9
70% 20 Louisville 20 38.0, 32 Houston 13 26.3
69% 110 Arkansas State 38 32.8, 170 Texas State - San Marc 21 22.2
69% 99 Monmouth 21 28.6, 162 Bryant 18 20.6
69% 14 North Dakota State 35 31.9, 31 Youngstown State 17 22.1
68% 179 Cornell 24 32.4, 230 Columbia 9 23.7
68% 108 Navy 42 35.1, 180 South Alabama 14 20.9
68% 82 Marshall 45 40.5, 171 Tulsa 34 30.7
68% 59 San Diego 23 28.9, 92 Drake 13 21.7
68% 5 Oklahoma State 38 41.5, 24 Texas 13 32.3
67% 242 Southeast Missouri Sta 36 30.3, 250 Austin Peay 34 23.5
67% 213 Howard 40 27.3, 241 Texas Southern 6 21.0
66% 222 Florida Atlantic 41 30.3, 243 Southern Mississippi 7 23.8
66% 138 Bowling Green 49 26.8, 145 Ohio 0 19.9
66% 100 Jacksonville 45 41.7, 231 Stetson 24 22.4
66% 62 Northern Iowa 17 27.8, 122 Missouri State 10 19.9
66% 55 New Hampshire 37 33.4, 116 Albany 20 26.5
65% 88 Toledo 51 32.2, 128 Buffalo 41 26.6
63% 224 Alabama A&M 50 29.9, 189 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 42 27.3
63% 36 California - Los Angel 41 30.2, 56 Washington 31 27.7
63% 25 Towson 15 24.8, 81 William & Mary 9 22.0
62% 209 Akron 14 27.1, 236 Massachusetts 13 25.1
62% 29 Eastern Washington 35 35.6, 74 California Poly 22 33.5
60% 207 California - Davis 34 24.7, 176 North Dakota 18 23.1
60% 134 Marist 33 33.0, 141 Mercer 7 27.3
59% 113 Boston College 38 28.1, 129 North Carolina State 21 26.8
58% 80 Cincinnati 52 25.9, 91 Rutgers 17 24.8
57% 52 North Carolina 34 29.6, 76 Pittsburgh 27 28.5
53% 84 Richmond 46 27.7, 79 Delaware 43 27.2
52% 201 Central Michigan 27 30.8, 206 Western Michigan 22 30.5
51% 50 Michigan 27 28.3, 61 Northwestern 19 28.2
49% 30 Eastern Illinois 52 36.2, 53 Jacksonville State 14 36.4
47% 44 Southern California 20 23.6, 22 Stanford 17 24.0
47% 39 Michigan State 41 20.1, 28 Nebraska 28 20.7
46% 158 Rice 52 30.8, 149 Louisiana Tech 14 31.4
46% 143 Nevada - Reno 38 31.5, 120 San Jose State 16 32.1
46% 75 Duke 48 32.2, 68 Miami - Florida 30 33.0
44% 173 Abilene Christian 65 33.0, 157 Prairie View 45 36.9
43% 95 Sacred Heart 42 21.1, 121 Robert Morris 25 22.3
39% 215 Western Illinois 21 23.5, 204 Indiana State 14 24.9
38% 194 Colorado 41 35.0, 155 California 24 37.9
38% 137 Lafayette 27 29.9, 73 Fordham 14 32.7
37% 217 Lamar 46 37.7, 144 Stephen F. Austin 45 42.4
37% 208 Delaware State 29 19.9, 205 Florida A&M 21 23.7
37% 165 Sacramento State 43 30.3, 152 Portland State 42 33.2
37% 118 Samford 17 21.9, 97 Tennessee - Chattanoog 14 25.0
37% 27 Auburn 43 31.1, 9 Georgia 38 33.6
36% 216 North Carolina Central 24 20.1, 200 Norfolk State 13 24.6
36% 126 Appalachian State 33 20.8, 127 Wofford 21 25.2
35% 233 Gardner - Webb 27 20.1, 191 Charleston Southern 10 27.8
34% 168 Tennessee - Martin 16 21.3, 146 Eastern Kentucky 7 27.9
34% 139 Southern Illinois 24 25.7, 89 Illinois State 17 32.2
34% 101 Dartmouth 24 18.1, 86 Brown 20 23.8
33% 198 Memphis 23 18.0, 166 South Florida 10 26.9
32% 85 Southeast Louisiana 34 32.1, 11 Sam Houston State 21 44.7
25% 203 Wagner 10 17.9, 132 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 29.2
20% 103 Stony Brook 41 18.0, 65 James Madison 38 27.5
18% 115 Maryland 27 13.0, 66 Virginia Tech 24 29.0
17% 196 Kansas 31 22.1, 72 West Virginia 19 39.4
14% 202 Alcorn State 48 22.7, 135 Jackson State 33 36.3
14% 187 Southern Utah 22 20.6, 70 Montana State 14 36.1
14% 151 Washington State 24 23.2, 35 Arizona 17 43.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 0.91 38 0.89 11 1.21 44 1.01 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109 78 79.6 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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