prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 2 Florida State 80 71.8, 239 Idaho 14 0.5
89% 9 North Dakota State 42 44.6, 182 South Dakota 0 3.9
88% 96 Bowling Green 58 43.7, 236 Eastern Michigan 7 14.3
88% 74 Marshall 48 47.1, 246 Florida International 10 19.0
88% 67 Miami - Florida 45 37.9, 168 Virginia 26 20.2
87% 106 Appalachian State 48 47.8, 229 Western Carolina 27 17.9
87% 94 Bethune - Cookman 29 34.6, 219 Florida A&M 10 13.9
87% 92 Brown 48 32.8, 232 Columbia 7 9.7
87% 65 Northern Iowa 28 33.4, 211 Western Illinois 13 7.0
87% 26 Louisville 24 34.7, 186 Memphis 17 5.2
87% 22 Fresno State 69 55.2, 199 New Mexico 28 22.8
87% 12 Georgia 59 43.4, 132 Kentucky 17 18.4
87% 8 Clemson 52 50.0, 135 The Citadel 6 18.2
87% 3 Ohio State 42 62.7, 114 Indiana 14 23.5
86% 197 Tennessee Tech 34 41.0, 251 Austin Peay 0 20.8
86% 169 Middle Tennessee State 42 37.6, 241 Southern Mississippi 21 22.2
86% 136 Buffalo 44 34.7, 244 Miami - Ohio 7 14.5
86% 118 Arkansas State 35 41.2, 223 Georgia State 33 18.1
86% 111 Samford 33 34.5, 210 Elon 32 16.5
86% 100 Jacksonville State 42 45.7, 235 Southeast Missouri Sta 34 18.2
86% 95 California Poly 42 36.1, 220 Northern Colorado 14 17.1
86% 82 Southeast Louisiana 52 45.1, 228 Nicholls State 27 15.3
86% 55 Georgia Tech 66 42.8, 214 Alabama A&M 7 17.3
86% 50 Southern California 47 39.5, 171 Colorado 29 15.5
86% 32 Eastern Washington 42 49.7, 152 Portland State 41 27.6
86% 28 Stanford 63 44.5, 154 California 13 16.4
86% 25 Eastern Illinois 70 38.3, 155 Tennessee - Martin 22 24.1
86% 16 Harvard 34 41.3, 149 Yale 7 20.2
86% 10 Wisconsin 20 34.4, 78 Minnesota 7 16.5
86% 7 Alabama 49 37.0, 91 Tennessee - Chattanoog 0 6.2
85% 206 Florida Atlantic 55 39.7, 237 New Mexico State 10 22.7
85% 173 Bucknell 35 28.3, 243 Virginia Military 23 7.6
85% 76 McNeese State 42 40.3, 204 Lamar 38 22.3
84% 59 Duke 28 35.0, 179 Wake Forest 21 20.9
83% 126 Southern Illinois 31 31.9, 213 Indiana State 9 18.5
81% 93 Liberty 56 32.7, 218 Charleston Southern 14 14.7
80% 61 Utah State 13 39.5, 117 Colorado State 0 26.8
79% 203 Central Michigan 37 29.1, 240 Massachusetts 0 18.2
78% 58 Mississippi State 24 32.4, 127 Arkansas 17 21.2
77% 151 North Carolina A&T 28 29.9, 208 North Carolina Central 0 18.1
76% 48 Central Florida 41 35.9, 122 Rutgers 17 20.6
75% 227 Weber State 32 44.0, 245 Idaho State 7 28.3
74% 139 Rice 37 41.9, 222 Alabama - Birmingham 34 26.1
72% 80 Stony Brook 24 33.2, 128 Albany 3 22.7
69% 146 South Carolina State 17 22.9, 217 Norfolk State 3 12.5
69% 36 Michigan State 30 26.4, 62 Northwestern 6 17.9
69% 24 Towson 28 32.6, 64 James Madison 17 24.7
68% 110 Southern Methodist 16 30.6, 192 South Florida 6 23.8
68% 53 Villanova 35 34.2, 75 Delaware 34 24.7
68% 17 Missouri 24 34.0, 38 Mississippi 10 28.0
68% 13 South Carolina 70 41.8, 34 Coastal Carolina 10 24.5
67% 133 Iowa State 34 28.7, 165 Kansas 0 22.7
67% 57 Vanderbilt 14 33.5, 107 Tennessee 10 25.0
67% 43 East Carolina 42 37.2, 123 North Carolina State 28 29.0
67% 31 Montana 28 35.3, 86 Montana State 14 27.9
66% 174 Wyoming 59 35.4, 198 Hawaii 56 29.2
66% 29 Notre Dame 23 26.8, 52 Brigham Young 13 22.3
66% 19 Northern Illinois 35 45.6, 79 Toledo 17 37.0
66% 15 Arizona State 38 34.8, 44 California - Los Angel 33 29.4
65% 224 Gardner - Webb 20 28.7, 238 Presbyterian 13 23.0
65% 97 Navy 58 30.2, 131 San Jose State 52 25.6
64% 66 Richmond 31 22.8, 84 William & Mary 20 19.3
63% 234 Campbell 47 31.1, 248 Davidson 14 26.5
63% 125 Illinois 20 34.4, 172 Purdue 16 30.6
62% 176 Mercer 41 28.2, 230 Stetson 14 20.2
62% 87 Fordham 56 31.4, 144 Colgate 19 28.9
62% 42 Cincinnati 24 35.6, 35 Houston 17 32.7
61% 83 Pittsburgh 17 25.2, 103 Syracuse 16 23.7
58% 215 Tulane 45 27.3, 212 Texas - El Paso 3 26.1
55% 163 Western Kentucky 38 25.9, 185 Texas State - San Marc 7 25.1
54% 160 Bryant 29 31.3, 161 Central Connecticut 16 30.7
53% 49 Nebraska 23 27.8, 77 Penn State 20 27.2
51% 134 Furman 27 23.8, 130 Wofford 14 23.6
50% 178 Prairie View 43 44.3, 180 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 23 44.2
50% 56 North Carolina 80 39.7, 21 Old Dominion 20 39.7
47% 216 North Carolina - Charl 61 30.6, 221 Morehead State 17 32.4
47% 193 Northwestern State 40 41.7, 143 Stephen F. Austin 27 42.3
46% 184 Howard 42 25.8, 189 Hampton 39 26.6
45% 166 Tulsa 24 33.0, 175 Louisiana Tech 14 34.2
44% 196 South Alabama 36 25.1, 188 Northeast Louisiana 14 26.6
42% 5 Oklahoma State 49 44.1, 1 Baylor 17 45.9
41% 71 Iowa 24 22.7, 33 Michigan 21 23.9
41% 46 New Hampshire 24 29.0, 27 Maine 3 30.0
40% 187 Kent State 44 23.0, 177 Ohio 13 24.7
40% 153 Saint Francis - Pennsy 23 23.3, 147 Robert Morris 3 24.7
38% 159 Texas - San Antonio 21 21.6, 158 North Texas 13 25.4
38% 137 Northern Arizona 20 19.3, 150 Southern Utah 10 22.2
37% 85 Boston College 29 26.1, 88 Maryland 26 30.0
36% 39 Georgia Southern 26 21.1, 70 Florida 20 26.9
35% 201 California - Davis 34 23.5, 157 Sacramento State 7 27.5
35% 18 Oklahoma 41 29.4, 14 Kansas State 31 34.1
35% 11 Louisiana State 34 35.4, 4 Texas A&M 10 40.9
34% 170 Murray State 34 23.2, 138 Eastern Kentucky 27 30.2
34% 119 Duquesne 33 20.1, 101 Monmouth 23 24.4
34% 99 Dartmouth 28 26.7, 41 Princeton 24 32.0
34% 69 South Dakota State 42 27.1, 40 Youngstown State 13 32.4
34% 68 Washington 69 25.5, 54 Oregon State 27 30.7
33% 116 Central Arkansas 49 25.8, 20 Sam Houston State 31 37.2
29% 129 Washington State 49 20.3, 63 Utah 37 30.4
24% 200 Nevada - Las Vegas 41 27.4, 162 Air Force 21 37.3
24% 195 Connecticut 28 22.4, 141 Temple 21 32.7
21% 191 Georgetown 28 21.6, 140 Holy Cross 21 31.6
21% 113 Lafayette 50 20.6, 51 Lehigh 28 32.0
15% 108 San Diego State 34 22.1, 23 Boise State 31 36.3
14% 233 Morgan State 31 18.5, 205 Delaware State 26 30.6
14% 167 Cornell 42 22.5, 120 Pennsylvania 41 35.8
14% 60 Arizona 42 25.3, 6 Oregon 16 44.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 0.68 38 0.97 12 0.77 40 1.05 1 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 74 78.0 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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