prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 108 Ball State 55 43.1, 243 Miami - Ohio 14 15.1
89% 1 Florida State 37 41.6, 88 Florida 7 14.8
88% 36 Boise State 45 52.4, 205 New Mexico 17 17.1
88% 21 Northern Illinois 33 52.4, 214 Western Michigan 14 16.7
87% 28 Central Florida 23 38.0, 194 South Florida 20 10.1
87% 9 Louisiana State 31 39.8, 119 Arkansas 27 12.0
87% 8 Oregon 36 47.7, 92 Oregon State 35 22.7
86% 196 Ohio 51 31.3, 244 Massachusetts 23 15.8
86% 186 Florida Atlantic 21 35.7, 245 Florida International 6 15.3
86% 175 Central Michigan 42 43.3, 241 Eastern Michigan 10 19.8
86% 158 Middle Tennessee State 48 37.9, 229 Texas - El Paso 17 19.1
86% 70 Utah 24 42.4, 172 Colorado 17 22.3
86% 57 Virginia Tech 16 33.6, 161 Virginia 6 16.5
86% 55 Vanderbilt 23 31.7, 189 Wake Forest 21 11.8
86% 22 Kansas State 31 42.0, 203 Kansas 10 14.6
85% 35 Michigan State 14 27.9, 102 Minnesota 3 9.3
85% 2 Ohio State 42 42.3, 44 Michigan 41 24.2
81% 197 Southern 40 37.0, 239 Grambling 17 23.9
81% 73 Utah State 35 38.3, 159 Wyoming 7 21.3
80% 136 Rice 17 35.0, 200 Tulane 13 23.5
77% 30 Washington 27 43.4, 122 Washington State 17 25.8
72% 51 Brigham Young 28 34.6, 115 Nevada - Reno 23 24.5
69% 7 South Carolina 31 35.4, 11 Clemson 17 26.8
68% 126 Colorado State 58 34.4, 188 Air Force 13 24.0
68% 19 Stanford 27 27.4, 31 Notre Dame 20 20.8
66% 107 Indiana 56 37.9, 164 Purdue 36 31.3
66% 93 Bowling Green 24 27.6, 129 Buffalo 7 21.8
65% 34 Texas 41 36.8, 40 Texas Tech 16 31.3
65% 14 Arizona State 58 37.7, 25 Arizona 21 31.9
65% 4 Baylor 41 39.0, 37 Texas Christian 38 31.3
64% 174 South Alabama 38 32.6, 217 Georgia State 17 26.5
64% 168 Troy State 42 33.3, 210 Texas State - San Marc 28 28.6
64% 77 Northwestern 37 30.0, 125 Illinois 34 25.6
64% 54 Houston 34 34.9, 103 Southern Methodist 0 28.6
63% 157 Texas - San Antonio 30 29.6, 183 Louisiana Tech 10 23.3
63% 53 Mississippi State 17 28.1, 50 Mississippi 10 24.5
63% 10 Georgia 41 40.0, 26 Georgia Tech 34 36.0
61% 191 Hawaii 49 35.9, 198 Army 42 33.6
56% 117 Tennessee 27 28.2, 147 Kentucky 14 27.1
53% 52 Miami - Florida 41 28.2, 87 Pittsburgh 31 27.9
52% 140 Western Kentucky 34 29.5, 118 Arkansas State 31 29.2
50% 114 Maryland 41 28.4, 130 North Carolina State 21 28.4
45% 163 Temple 41 24.6, 176 Memphis 21 25.3
42% 110 Syracuse 34 26.4, 75 Boston College 31 27.5
38% 18 Missouri 28 31.3, 5 Texas A&M 21 35.4
37% 242 New Mexico State 24 36.7, 232 Idaho 16 41.9
37% 167 Connecticut 28 23.4, 120 Rutgers 17 27.1
37% 78 Marshall 59 36.8, 38 East Carolina 28 41.3
34% 190 North Texas 42 21.0, 143 Tulsa 10 29.4
33% 104 Iowa State 52 25.4, 84 West Virginia 44 31.4
33% 67 Iowa 38 20.7, 41 Nebraska 17 26.3
33% 48 California - Los Angel 35 24.6, 49 Southern California 14 31.2
32% 240 Southern Mississippi 62 30.6, 211 Alabama - Birmingham 27 40.3
32% 121 San Jose State 62 32.9, 20 Fresno State 52 49.5
30% 62 Duke 27 28.1, 16 North Carolina 25 43.8
27% 208 Akron 31 24.4, 100 Toledo 29 37.5
18% 178 Nevada - Las Vegas 45 24.7, 94 San Diego State 19 37.9
14% 201 Northeast Louisiana 31 24.9, 86 Louisiana - Lafayette 28 40.1
14% 76 Penn State 31 13.3, 15 Wisconsin 24 31.3
14% 39 Auburn 34 16.8, 6 Alabama 28 35.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.92 27 0.91 3 0.90 24 0.97 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 60 41 43.7 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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