prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 88% 1 Florida State 34 46.1, 25 Auburn 31 21.4 86% 10 Louisiana State 21 30.6, 60 Iowa 14 17.4 86% 7 Texas A&M 52 49.0, 85 Duke 48 26.8 86% 4 Oregon 30 40.9, 24 Texas 7 27.0 85% 56 East Carolina 37 39.7, 161 Ohio 20 26.7 85% 49 Mississippi State 44 35.1, 131 Rice 7 19.7 84% 9 North Dakota State 52 33.7, 47 New Hampshire 14 15.0 81% 118 Louisiana - Lafayette 24 36.8, 212 Tulane 21 24.3 75% 9 North Dakota State 35 34.6, 19 Towson 7 23.1 74% 38 Arizona 42 34.8, 84 Boston College 19 25.8 73% 28 Notre Dame 29 30.2, 106 Rutgers 16 17.0 67% 167 North Texas 36 29.2, 174 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 25.0 67% 8 South Carolina 34 28.1, 16 Wisconsin 24 22.7 66% 87 Navy 24 34.3, 154 Middle Tennessee State 6 25.1 66% 18 Kansas State 31 34.1, 29 Michigan 14 29.2 64% 36 Louisville 36 29.8, 43 Miami - Florida 9 26.3 64% 22 North Carolina 39 32.5, 53 Cincinnati 17 27.5 63% 127 San Diego State 49 28.8, 147 Buffalo 24 25.7 62% 116 Colorado State 48 32.6, 134 Washington State 45 30.6 62% 19 Towson 35 36.5, 37 Eastern Washington 31 34.0 60% 55 Southern California 45 32.9, 30 Fresno State 20 31.2 54% 83 Pittsburgh 30 23.9, 96 Bowling Green 27 23.3 51% 32 California - Los Angel 42 23.7, 61 Virginia Tech 12 23.6 48% 98 Syracuse 21 24.2, 105 Minnesota 17 24.4 38% 120 Arkansas State 23 32.4, 91 Ball State 20 34.9 38% 73 Vanderbilt 41 29.3, 40 Houston 24 32.4 38% 69 Utah State 21 29.1, 35 Northern Illinois 14 30.5 38% 42 Washington 31 25.7, 48 Brigham Young 16 27.4 38% 34 Michigan State 24 19.2, 17 Stanford 20 21.5 36% 90 Marshall 31 31.0, 89 Maryland 20 35.0 35% 13 Clemson 40 34.3, 3 Ohio State 35 39.4 34% 52 Mississippi 25 28.6, 26 Georgia Tech 17 34.5 34% 46 Texas Tech 37 33.0, 15 Arizona State 23 39.9 30% 50 Nebraska 24 28.9, 12 Georgia 19 39.1 27% 62 Oregon State 38 27.1, 23 Boise State 23 36.6 25% 20 Missouri 41 27.6, 5 Oklahoma State 31 38.6 22% 33 Central Florida 52 28.3, 2 Baylor 42 42.5 14% 14 Oklahoma 45 20.7, 6 Alabama 31 31.3 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 4 1.38 18 0.78 7 0.58 9 1.04 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 38 23 26.6 0.87 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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