prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 51 Utah 56 47.3, 249 Idaho State 14 15.0
94% 50 Arizona 58 40.6, 194 Nevada - Las Vegas 13 23.6
94% 46 Northern Illinois 55 48.6, 242 Presbyterian 3 18.3
94% 29 Nebraska 55 38.1, 186 Florida Atlantic 7 17.5
94% 24 Texas 38 37.3, 147 North Texas 7 18.4
94% 8 Oklahoma 48 43.6, 169 Louisiana Tech 16 14.9
94% 4 Ohio State 34 41.4, 105 Navy 17 25.1
94% 3 Oregon 62 53.4, 200 South Dakota 13 16.8
93% 49 Oregon State 29 42.9, 183 Portland State 14 25.5
93% 17 Kansas State 55 52.3, 211 Stephen F. Austin 16 23.8
92% 168 Middle Tennessee State 61 43.5, 252 Savannah State 7 16.7
92% 145 South Florida 36 34.1, 240 Western Carolina 31 17.9
92% 45 Texas Tech 42 44.3, 157 Central Arkansas 35 26.2
92% 28 Notre Dame 48 35.4, 159 Rice 17 20.3
92% 25 Texas Christian 48 35.4, 129 Samford 14 18.4
92% 22 Southern California 52 37.1, 61 Fresno State 13 28.5
92% 10 Baylor 45 49.1, 137 Southern Methodist 0 27.4
92% 2 Alabama 33 36.9, 75 West Virginia 23 20.9
91% 171 Air Force 44 39.0, 247 Nicholls State 16 20.7
91% 82 Old Dominion 41 45.3, 192 Hampton 28 27.6
91% 77 East Carolina 52 43.4, 223 North Carolina Central 7 22.4
90% 128 Furman 13 31.8, 230 Gardner - Webb 3 15.0
90% 80 Richmond 55 43.9, 235 Morehead State 10 20.9
90% 76 Bethune - Cookman 14 32.6, 236 Florida International 12 15.4
90% 23 Arizona State 45 49.7, 234 Weber State 14 16.5
90% 21 Missouri 38 37.9, 104 South Dakota State 18 22.1
90% 16 Stanford 45 36.8, 180 California - Davis 0 13.3
90% 6 North Dakota State 34 34.8, 121 Iowa State 14 21.1
89% 132 Bucknell 42 33.9, 241 Virginia Military 38 14.8
89% 57 Mississippi State 49 40.0, 228 Southern Mississippi 0 15.6
89% 55 Maine 10 33.0, 181 Norfolk State 6 15.0
89% 20 Louisville 31 33.6, 47 Miami - Florida 13 24.2
88% 202 Western Illinois 45 36.0, 250 Valparaiso 6 17.6
88% 90 Monmouth 52 32.8, 206 Delaware State 21 16.3
88% 87 Marshall 42 37.7, 229 Miami - Ohio 27 21.2
88% 74 Fordham 52 37.3, 162 Saint Francis - Pennsy 23 26.0
86% 31 Michigan 52 37.0, 112 Appalachian State 14 22.5
86% 15 Michigan State 45 34.4, 81 Jacksonville State 7 19.9
85% 198 Memphis 63 33.9, 248 Austin Peay 0 17.0
85% 123 Jackson State 22 30.9, 182 Florida A&M 17 20.8
85% 43 Auburn 45 35.8, 110 Arkansas 21 22.9
85% 1 Florida State 37 41.1, 5 Oklahoma State 31 32.2
84% 27 Georgia Tech 38 37.3, 120 Wofford 19 20.6
83% 111 Nevada - Reno 28 32.4, 172 Southern Utah 19 20.9
82% 141 Indiana 28 43.1, 221 Indiana State 10 28.2
82% 59 Washington 17 37.6, 184 Hawaii 16 27.6
82% 40 California - Los Angel 28 33.6, 149 Virginia 20 24.2
81% 153 San Jose State 42 37.5, 218 North Dakota 10 26.3
81% 135 Colorado State 31 36.3, 201 Colorado 17 29.4
79% 26 Brigham Young 35 30.6, 143 Connecticut 10 20.7
76% 178 Alcorn State 55 54.2, 251 Houston Baptist 7 28.6
75% 88 Boston College 30 28.4, 210 Massachusetts 7 17.3
74% 113 Duke 52 36.6, 196 Elon 13 24.0
73% 174 Purdue 43 30.3, 208 Western Michigan 34 23.1
73% 30 North Carolina 56 34.9, 83 Liberty 29 25.1
70% 150 Missouri State 34 34.4, 222 Northwestern State 27 27.4
68% 122 San Diego State 38 31.6, 148 Northern Arizona 7 25.7
68% 34 Iowa 31 26.2, 60 Northern Iowa 23 18.3
67% 156 Tulsa 38 29.8, 205 Tulane 31 23.0
66% 139 Kentucky 59 30.4, 163 Tennessee - Martin 14 24.0
66% 116 Ball State 30 35.7, 126 Colgate 10 30.7
66% 91 Sacred Heart 28 30.0, 93 Marist 7 24.7
66% 36 Virginia Tech 34 23.6, 63 William & Mary 9 15.3
65% 68 Pittsburgh 62 31.7, 89 Delaware 0 26.1
64% 154 Louisiana - Lafayette 45 35.2, 170 Southern 6 29.4
63% 19 Georgia 45 36.4, 14 Clemson 21 33.8
62% 231 Lamar 42 33.0, 225 Grambling 27 28.9
62% 189 Texas State - San Marc 65 33.3, 190 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 0 28.8
62% 177 Sacramento State 49 41.2, 243 Incarnate Word 13 30.5
62% 101 Rutgers 41 31.9, 161 Washington State 38 28.5
60% 213 North Carolina - Charl 33 47.3, 238 Campbell 9 40.5
60% 209 Akron 41 31.6, 207 Howard 0 27.9
60% 144 North Carolina A&T 47 24.3, 166 Alabama A&M 13 22.0
60% 115 Coastal Carolina 31 36.2, 158 The Citadel 16 33.9
60% 86 Maryland 52 26.6, 64 James Madison 7 24.0
59% 136 Southeast Louisiana 44 34.1, 107 Jacksonville 3 32.5
58% 127 Arkansas State 37 31.2, 96 Montana State 10 30.4
51% 151 Ohio 17 27.2, 164 Kent State 14 27.1
49% 99 North Carolina State 24 28.6, 62 Georgia Southern 23 28.7
46% 142 Sam Houston State 51 32.6, 92 Alabama State 20 33.2
46% 138 Albany 14 27.5, 109 Holy Cross 13 28.2
43% 134 Buffalo 38 26.4, 84 Duquesne 28 27.4
41% 9 Louisiana State 28 27.7, 7 Wisconsin 24 28.5
40% 233 Georgia State 38 41.1, 197 Abilene Christian 37 44.8
40% 191 Northeast Louisiana 17 23.1, 155 Wake Forest 10 25.2
40% 160 Central Michigan 20 26.7, 102 Tennessee - Chattanoog 16 29.5
40% 131 Illinois 28 32.5, 73 Youngstown State 17 35.3
40% 124 Eastern Kentucky 29 22.4, 125 Robert Morris 10 25.3
40% 119 Tennessee 38 27.4, 58 Utah State 7 29.5
40% 114 Toledo 54 32.1, 44 New Hampshire 20 34.3
40% 100 Minnesota 42 31.1, 56 Eastern Illinois 20 33.1
39% 48 Penn State 26 26.2, 35 Central Florida 24 29.0
38% 188 Wagner 21 22.2, 173 Georgetown 3 26.7
38% 97 Syracuse 27 25.9, 37 Villanova 26 29.1
35% 227 Alabama - Birmingham 48 33.6, 175 Troy State 10 38.3
35% 146 Western Kentucky 59 26.1, 69 Bowling Green 31 30.0
34% 220 Texas - El Paso 31 31.2, 212 New Mexico 24 35.8
30% 244 Eastern Michigan 31 27.1, 216 Morgan State 28 32.9
24% 140 Bryant 13 25.0, 79 Stony Brook 7 33.0
24% 18 Texas A&M 52 33.9, 13 South Carolina 28 38.3
21% 232 Texas Southern 37 26.5, 167 Prairie View 35 34.9
19% 72 Mississippi 35 25.5, 12 Boise State 13 34.0
14% 185 Wyoming 17 26.7, 54 Montana 12 36.4
13% 195 Texas - San Antonio 27 26.1, 67 Houston 7 41.7
13% 130 Temple 37 24.7, 66 Vanderbilt 7 33.4
12% 179 California 31 24.3, 78 Northwestern 24 36.6
11% 246 New Mexico State 28 19.0, 95 California Poly 10 38.7
10% 165 Central Connecticut 31 26.6, 53 Towson 27 41.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.59 31 0.96 9 0.88 32 0.91 24 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 78 83.1 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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