prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 84 Georgia Southern 83 50.4, 252 Savannah State 9 9.4
94% 39 Florida 65 43.1, 234 Eastern Michigan 0 12.6
94% 9 Alabama 41 43.2, 221 Florida Atlantic 0 8.9
94% 4 Oklahoma State 40 48.7, 154 Missouri State 23 19.5
94% 1 Florida State 37 49.8, 175 The Citadel 12 11.1
93% 21 Louisville 66 44.2, 183 Murray State 21 17.9
93% 16 Wisconsin 37 39.9, 180 Western Illinois 3 13.0
92% 160 Northeast Louisiana 38 35.3, 243 Idaho 31 19.4
92% 140 Arkansas 73 42.4, 246 Nicholls State 7 16.1
92% 17 Nebraska 31 45.1, 118 McNeese State 24 23.8
92% 5 Texas A&M 73 63.1, 218 Lamar 3 27.0
92% 3 Baylor 70 54.6, 206 Northwestern State 6 18.4
90% 106 Marshall 48 41.1, 201 Rhode Island 7 24.2
90% 74 Dayton 23 33.6, 210 Georgetown 14 12.6
90% 38 Arizona State 58 44.6, 226 New Mexico 23 24.8
89% 96 Rutgers 38 39.2, 240 Howard 25 14.2
89% 14 North Dakota State 24 39.3, 217 Weber State 7 13.6
89% 12 Louisiana State 56 43.9, 69 Sam Houston State 0 25.6
87% 105 Holy Cross 29 35.2, 230 Morgan State 26 17.3
87% 34 Georgia Tech 38 42.0, 194 Tulane 21 25.4
87% 15 Oklahoma 52 40.2, 156 Tulsa 7 24.6
84% 137 Utah State 40 39.4, 247 Idaho State 20 18.1
84% 136 Jackson State 59 52.7, 250 Houston Baptist 0 19.8
84% 23 Kansas State 32 35.2, 120 Iowa State 28 23.9
83% 142 Illinois State 62 32.1, 208 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 19.3
82% 163 Appalachian State 66 32.6, 242 Campbell 0 11.9
82% 64 Miami - Florida 41 33.9, 168 Florida A&M 7 16.1
81% 131 Central Arkansas 26 40.2, 228 Tennessee - Martin 24 24.1
80% 178 Kansas 34 31.3, 224 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 21.2
80% 41 Clemson 73 34.2, 104 South Carolina State 7 19.6
79% 54 West Virginia 54 37.7, 115 Towson 0 26.1
79% 36 Auburn 59 42.1, 101 San Jose State 13 28.0
78% 75 Texas Tech 30 37.7, 193 Texas - El Paso 26 26.7
78% 66 Duke 34 44.3, 236 Troy State 17 22.8
78% 52 Utah 59 38.7, 123 Fresno State 27 27.4
77% 80 Eastern Kentucky 17 32.1, 222 Miami - Ohio 10 19.2
77% 55 Southeast Louisiana 41 33.5, 165 Southern Utah 14 17.9
75% 40 Penn State 21 34.2, 122 Akron 3 21.1
75% 32 Northern Illinois 23 37.0, 138 Northwestern 15 25.6
74% 37 Iowa 17 32.7, 82 Ball State 13 24.5
73% 114 Nevada - Reno 24 39.7, 173 Washington State 13 32.8
73% 111 South Dakota State 44 29.6, 187 California Poly 18 15.7
73% 26 Maryland 24 39.5, 174 South Florida 17 22.4
72% 63 Kentucky 20 36.8, 141 Ohio 3 25.8
72% 51 Minnesota 35 37.4, 128 Middle Tennessee State 24 25.1
72% 45 Boise State 37 33.0, 113 Colorado State 24 20.7
71% 2 Oregon 46 39.1, 6 Michigan State 27 28.7
70% 211 Stephen F. Austin 38 47.3, 248 Incarnate Word 3 30.8
70% 33 Mississippi State 47 38.9, 148 Alabama - Birmingham 34 24.5
70% 31 Mississippi 41 34.2, 157 Vanderbilt 3 18.4
69% 150 Houston 47 32.6, 231 Grambling 0 16.6
69% 67 Sacred Heart 27 30.2, 92 Lafayette 14 24.0
68% 81 North Carolina State 46 39.0, 102 Old Dominion 34 33.8
67% 155 Bowling Green 48 41.6, 232 Virginia Military 7 28.4
67% 29 North Carolina 31 42.8, 65 San Diego State 27 32.9
64% 7 Pittsburgh 30 35.0, 78 Boston College 20 24.3
63% 172 Wake Forest 23 20.5, 207 Gardner - Webb 7 13.0
63% 43 Tennessee 34 33.8, 62 Arkansas State 19 26.3
62% 135 Wyoming 17 31.5, 159 Air Force 13 26.7
61% 130 California 55 35.5, 144 Sacramento State 14 29.5
61% 110 Youngstown State 34 28.6, 117 Duquesne 23 24.1
61% 61 California - Los Angel 42 35.7, 100 Memphis 35 28.8
61% 59 Oregon State 38 27.9, 149 Hawaii 30 22.9
61% 30 Arizona 26 36.4, 95 Texas - San Antonio 23 29.8
60% 225 Nevada - Las Vegas 13 29.9, 220 Northern Colorado 12 27.1
60% 205 Delaware 27 28.4, 223 Delaware State 9 23.7
60% 167 North Texas 43 22.3, 166 Southern Methodist 6 19.1
60% 112 Alabama State 27 29.1, 99 Tennessee State 21 27.0
60% 108 William & Mary 42 23.6, 171 Hampton 14 21.0
60% 79 Washington 59 35.1, 87 Eastern Washington 52 32.4
57% 50 South Carolina 33 33.9, 46 East Carolina 23 32.5
57% 28 Notre Dame 31 33.8, 20 Michigan 0 32.6
56% 133 Central Michigan 38 31.2, 179 Purdue 17 30.4
56% 68 Villanova 50 34.3, 53 Fordham 6 33.5
55% 195 New Mexico State 34 33.2, 212 Georgia State 31 32.1
55% 147 Furman 25 37.9, 199 Mercer 20 36.2
54% 126 Liberty 17 24.0, 146 Norfolk State 0 23.0
52% 198 Colorado 41 21.6, 216 Massachusetts 38 21.3
48% 164 Connecticut 19 18.8, 116 Stony Brook 16 19.2
45% 88 Illinois 42 34.9, 76 Western Kentucky 34 36.0
45% 8 Southern California 13 28.4, 13 Stanford 10 29.4
43% 189 Northern Arizona 27 35.4, 209 Abilene Christian 21 37.3
42% 86 Coastal Carolina 31 32.0, 85 North Carolina A&T 30 33.4
41% 204 Indiana State 49 23.7, 192 Tennessee Tech 14 25.3
41% 139 Jacksonville State 26 24.9, 127 Tennessee - Chattanoog 23 26.7
40% 188 South Alabama 23 26.5, 176 Kent State 13 28.1
40% 129 Virginia 45 25.7, 60 Richmond 13 28.7
40% 27 Missouri 49 36.1, 35 Toledo 24 39.4
39% 233 North Dakota 16 19.2, 169 Robert Morris 13 24.8
38% 107 Southern Illinois 38 28.8, 103 Eastern Illinois 21 33.2
37% 239 Southern Mississippi 26 23.5, 153 Alcorn State 20 32.0
37% 91 Navy 31 25.9, 42 Temple 24 32.8
36% 181 Bucknell 22 21.1, 132 Marist 0 28.1
35% 213 Florida International 34 16.4, 121 Wagner 3 24.6
34% 134 Albany 19 25.3, 98 Central Connecticut 0 32.9
25% 190 Army 47 28.4, 109 Buffalo 39 36.8
25% 177 Louisiana Tech 48 26.0, 83 Louisiana - Lafayette 20 38.7
24% 25 Brigham Young 41 23.6, 22 Texas 7 31.3
22% 24 Virginia Tech 35 23.5, 10 Ohio State 21 33.7
19% 161 James Madison 31 17.5, 58 Lehigh 28 33.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
21 1.00 25 1.07 23 1.10 17 1.11 14 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 100 78 72.4 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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